Cable & Wireless Share Discussion Threads

[the stinger] 04/5/2012 11:49

Is that so MikeStamp....good on you.. I'll take your guide and not buy more then. Thanks for the advice.

[mikestamp] 04/5/2012 11:24

Stinger, I have enough, but am wise enough to know that you rarely beat the market.

[rogermauricesmith] 04/5/2012 11:18

Nilla 159

Can you elaborate what you mean by "fishy" in that context?

[the stinger] 04/5/2012 11:04

MikeStamp - do you have enough to buy that amount of shares?,,,if so then yes,,,you'll make a lot of profit.....if not then why post such a statement? bit silly!

[mikestamp] 04/5/2012 10:50

I'm a coward, I'll stick with what I have. No idea at all what's going on !!

[thehairydagger] 04/5/2012 10:47

careful, welcome aboard, i've just bought more aswell.

[careful] 04/5/2012 10:43

well after all of this talk i did it.
i have just bght at 32.5p.
i have convinced myself that it is worth more...and that whatever happens next it is unlikely to fall back much.
more potential upside.
a % play.

[mikestamp] 04/5/2012 10:33

Is that 'guaranteed' stinger ??

I will buy 320k and get 380k in a few months. Make 60k profit. If you 'guarantee' this, I will give you half.

[the stinger] 04/5/2012 10:23

Lot of folk missing the big picture here - i.e all the employees, customers etc etc....ORBIS with 19% cannot dictate employees/families & customers business & futures...

Deal done at 38p (unless VOD are generous and offer OORBIS a couple of pence more)

[squintyflinty12] 04/5/2012 10:09

Careful....good thinking.

[careful] 04/5/2012 09:53

it would be a smart move by orbis to short the shares.
then close.
go long
accept offer.

[ch4rles bronson] 04/5/2012 09:39

Surely if the deal lapses all those already committed to selling their shares to Vod will then become non binding so Vod would not hold any cw. shares?

[nilla159] 04/5/2012 09:36

It may be very difficult for orbis to buy lots of shares to average down as it took me 15mins to buy 253,731 at 32.5p.They do seem reluctant to sell larger amounts to PI's something fishy going on here I suspect.

[7kiwi] 04/5/2012 09:30

I don't think VOD will be stuck with any shares if the Scheme of Arrangement doesn't get approved. I think the offer would simply lapse.

It would be different if they went to an open offer and bought shares in the market.

[rogermauricesmith] 04/5/2012 09:11

Careful

Accept the argument and it would make sense but on that basis Vodafone would still have to pay 38p - that's why it doesn't make any sense for share price to be below offer. Or have I got that wrong? Can it get control without paying the 38p? Does the offer document have any legal standing at all?

[squintyflinty12] 04/5/2012 09:08

I don't think that ORBIT will be allowed by their investors to block this deal.The share price would plunge if they did this, and they would lose all credibility with their investors.As mentioned before ,by a previous poster,they should average down and then agree to the takeover.That way,they would not be losing their clients any money.

[badtime] 04/5/2012 09:08

anyone got a coin to toss..seems as good a view to take as what I've read so far

[gurunostradamus] 04/5/2012 08:55

...good careful rational post...

[ninja 19] 04/5/2012 08:51

before 38p


prepare for 28

[careful] 04/5/2012 08:50

i am beginning to suspect that vod may be happy to walk away from CW.with a large holding but not full control
maybe over 50%.

They would control the company and work with the management and block other deals.
hence todays share price.
if this happens it will fall further.

That is why the share price is below the offer.

[rogermauricesmith] 04/5/2012 08:46

Mike Stamp

Sorry I withdraw "guaranteed" but there is a pretty thick recommended cash offer document on my desk saying Vodafone will pay 38p. It appears to me (combined with the sideletters) to be a pretty watertight legal document between the CW board and Vodafone (providing certain conditions are observed).
Orbis has not said it will not accept Vodafone's bid. What it has said is that it is not happy with the price and is pursuing its options to try and get a better price(it's been very careful with the wording). If it can't get a better offer then it would be committing financial suicide with its stakeholders cash not to accept the offer. Assuming Orbis is not run by kamikaze pilots then there is a pretty certain 38p down the road.

[7kiwi] 04/5/2012 08:46

I had a look at the AR last night, and I;m afraid I couldn't really come to a conclusion on the value of their properties.

It isn't clear how much of their property they hold as freehold and how much has been the subject of sale and leaseback arrangements.

But, I may have overlooked something. One thing I do agree on, is that on this issuethe accounts are a bit opaque.

[rogermauricesmith] 04/5/2012 08:29

7kiwi

You are quite right but I was going of the annual report rather than the interims which mysteriously saw an entirely spurious write-off of £624 million of assets by the new chief executive taking the assets from £1.5 billion to £1 billion or thereabouts. I have difficulty accepting that write-off as having any genuine motives.

I covered the net worth of CW in a previous post (No 4878-28th April) and it's worth repeating a bit of it: "CW employs virtually the same capital in its business as Colt yet manages to achieve twice the turnover and thee times the profits." And that was measuring the annual results before the £624 million write-offs. Now it would appear that CW employs a third less capital than Colt to achieve three times its profits. Doesn't make any sense does it?

I'll accept being challenged and will readily admit my analysis could be wrong of any aspect of CW bar the asset value. Every asset CW has has been depreciated, amortised and written off (call it what you like) down to the nth degree.

And if you accept the above, i.e. the latest write-off, then, on a return-on-capital basis, CW is the most exceptionally run telecoms company in Britain. Its return on capital is extraordinary and we must fete John Pluthero rather than damn him. But of course we know that is not true.

One thing Gavin Darby CANNOT do in the annual results is write-off the assets any further. It just didn't make any SENSE to write-off the assets in the interim report by £624 million when the assets were already understated by 50%.

I could go on about the assets anomalies all day and there are many questions that need answering such as the value of CW's freehold assets.

[mikestamp] 04/5/2012 08:10

'38p minimum guaranteed in about 3 months time'

Show me any guarantee, be careful what you say.