Cable & Wireless Share Discussion Threads

[jimrclark] 02/5/2012 15:16

Hi RMS - I think they are trying to keep the pressure on ORBIS.

There was a comapny very recently where the share price drifted above the offer price (sorry, can't remember which one) - Vod don't want that to happen because it gives ammunition to all those who think CW is worth more than 38p.

They have the firepower to do this and I'm sure that all their advisers are working hard to keep the price down (and will be rewarded by Vod appropriately!).

[rogermauricesmith] 02/5/2012 15:04

Updating calculations currently

[tiltonboy] 02/5/2012 14:40

It doesn't matter if they say the offer won't be increased, they can still offer a higher price.

[nilla159] 02/5/2012 14:18

cw. paid £330m ? for Thus about 3 years ago because of their fibre optic cable network, this needs to be fully integrated into cw.
Pension liabilities seem to be ok according to RMS.
Share price was below 20p for Dec- Jan only and 50 - 60p on average before that.
The below 20p scenario attracted VOD ,TATA and others.This could happen again.
VOD are too straightjacketed to return and have the finger pointed at them.
However if cw. went bust and VOD were invited to buy the cables etc from the receivers then I don't think that they could utilise the £5.2 Billion tax losses.
The point being they are buying the company for NOTHING. It's Free.So all we are asking for as shareholders is that they are seen to be paying Something for our shares, something more than nothing.45P MAY DO IT.

[sandbank] 02/5/2012 14:14

The Orbis statement reads as if it has been deliberately designed to spook those shareholders who are undecided whether to cash out now or wait for the VOD payout.

Some might say it's a grossly irresponsible attempt to manipulate the market at a sensitive time.Some might say it's sour grapes because Orbis's current investment works out at 53 pence per share - so they're gonna take a bath whatever happens.

But I read that 20% of CW. holders have already agreed to VOD's offer of 38 pence per share and Orbis are going to find themselves mighty unpopular - not least with their own shareholders - if their ill-considered and petulant reaction sours the deal.

[diku] 02/5/2012 13:42

There just seems to be some sort of jinx with this company....support holding at 33.5p....anybody brave enough to buy for a possible 4p gain if Orbis change their tune?...

[careful] 02/5/2012 13:32

has cw. got critical mass?
and what are its pension liabilities.
it is easy to become insolvent. Look at Marconi from 36bn to zero.
there is real risk here.
cw. was capitalised at below 500m a few weeks ago.
tata walked aay and offered less that 25p.

what happened to Thus?

[nilla159] 02/5/2012 13:26

VOD have shot themselves in the foot by saying the offer will NOT be increased.
The offer undervalues cw. by some way, and larger shareholders will block the 38p offer so VOD will be unable to proceed.
Therefore the shareprice will drop short term (so what) VOD values it at 38p, this is a big potential buying opportunity if you can wait 6 months or so.
I imagine that Gavin Darby will do his utmost to turn this around, after all he did spend £340,000 of his own money on these shares in november(can anyone recall an incoming CEO investing anywhere near this amount?),ignoring all conspiracy theories.
Also what price would cw. be now had there been no bid interest?
Action - sell shares now and buy back on sharp drop.
Question ; do you think cw. will go bust if bid evaporates.(remember GD bought 2m shares).

[careful] 02/5/2012 13:10

it is interesting to look at the past capitalisation values of these companies.

Vod was £220bn at one point. today 85bn.
I FORGET cables cap but it must have been huge at its peak.

shares can destroy your wealth.
buy and hold is not a strategy anymore.

[careful] 02/5/2012 13:01

no, I have a substantial vod holding.
but have been watching cw. for ages.
i missed them at 16p...asleep at the wheel?
i do not own any cw.
sold out of cww a while back.

[thehairydagger] 02/5/2012 12:46

careful, did you sell out in the high 20p range ?

[careful] 02/5/2012 12:33

if Vod end up with a shortfall, say 35%, what is wrong with that.
After a failed attempt for Sainsbury a few years back the major shareholder was prepared to sit on his 30% holding. Quatar I think.
not a bad move for Vod.

It could mop up the balance in the future.

[targatarga] 02/5/2012 12:24

careful - seems you've been right up to now... Still early days. Remember other players are watching.... imho

[careful] 02/5/2012 12:24

do orbis actually own shares, or are they borrowed (from you lot in nominee a/c) for a small fee.

[careful] 02/5/2012 12:22

the lower share price is a bet on vod's offer being rejected and no other bidder.
the share price would fall further in this event.
odds 50% that this will happen.

[thehairydagger] 02/5/2012 12:18

That's my £2000 paper profit gone, cnts.

[bubbleandleek] 02/5/2012 12:15

Orbis Investment Mgmt is evaluating its options regarding Vodafone's bid for Cable & Wireless Worldwide, including remaining minority shareholder, fund says
in fact sheet, published overnight and dated April 30.
• Orbis prepared to retain stake knowing "very well the risk that Vodafone may withdraw its offer"
• Orbis says will do whatever it believes will create L/T value for clients, even if Cable & Wireless share price falls in S/T
• Assuming less than 100% of Cable & Wireless shareholders vote, Orbis alone could have power to block the deal, Espirito said April 24
• If Orbis votes against deal there is a "real risk" Vodafone will walk away: Espirito
• Cable & Wireless down as much as 5% today; now ~13% below Vodafone's 38p-shr offer
• Shrs trading ~48% above Feb 10 close price; day before Vodafone confirmed it was evaluating whether to bid
• NOTE: Orbis holds 19% of Cable & Wireless Worldwide, according to its global equity fund fact sheet
• NOTE: Vodafone requires 75% of Cable & Wireless shareholders to approve the deal, must produce offer document by May 21

[pennypunter] 02/5/2012 11:51

the selling is due to CFD shorting, nothing to do with VOD. If shareholders are stupid enough to reject this offer, stock will drop substantially as everyone knows.However timing is key here, the deal needs regulatory clearance that is the first step, when that comes thru the shorts will get burned.

[ch4rles bronson] 02/5/2012 11:51

Yes 75% of votes cast are needed, if Orbis vote against practically all other holders will have to vote and vote for it to get it past, others may vote no.

However I'm sure i read somewhere the deal can be changed so that only 50% votes would be needed. Others am sure are more informed than me and could perhaps shed some light on the procedure.

[oregano] 02/5/2012 11:35

Orbis are playing hardball. they can scupper the deal if they vote against it. Obstain and it will go through.

[talkman2] 02/5/2012 11:10

Excuse my ignorance ( and I have been away for a few days ) why is this trading well below the VOD offer price of 38p ? i don't understand what is going on .

[djwr100] 02/5/2012 10:54

Why would vodafone make an offer, go to such trouble, expense, and use so much time, while having a statement in the offer that effectively blocks their progress at anything above 38p?

Why would the big shareholders fail to accept the offer, unless they believed that they could get a better deal elsewhere?

The costs are too high for this to be a game. So, they must both believe their positions are correct. And one must be right.

[diku] 02/5/2012 10:35

Donny13.....loss of confidence.....probably feel stiched up....market wants the deal to fail....