Cable & Wireless Share Discussion Threads

[rogermauricesmith] 03/5/2012 12:13

Vodafone will win

Look no one should be in any doubt that Vodafone is going to win CW and be able to buy 100% of the shares unless there is another bid.
The one thing Orbis has not said (and it has had plenty of opportunity) is that it will not accept the bid.
Vodafone may (or may not) be forced into a sweetener of between 5% and 10%.
So 38p is on the table in two/three months time. Vodafone (via UBS's strategic selling and buying) will keep the share price well below that level for as long as it wants.
Currently there's a nice 10/12% guaranteed profit for people who have got money in a building society earning 1%.

[andrewhbruce] 03/5/2012 11:46

Realistically Orbis have no choice but to accept, they can throw their toys out of the pram for so long and hope for a sweetie - not that likely I suspect - but the alternative is a very sour sherbert.

[careful] 03/5/2012 11:42

however this turns out vod will be the largest shareholder.
if orbis can cause trouble with 10% of votes, (shares on loan?)
vod will have even more power to block anyone else who may wish want to bid with around 30%.(guess)
vod will prob have a seat on the board.

[rogermauricesmith] 03/5/2012 11:38

CW's share price

Despite what is happening to the share price, for whatever reasosn, Vodafone has a bid on the table of 38p which it cannot reduce. If it walks away it cannot bid again for six months - so it won't do that. Vodafone has now spelt out exactly why it wants CW and it is a very compelling argument.
If Orbis has no other place to go then it will accept the bid, it is not a stupid organisation and the last thing it would want to be is a minority shareholder in a Vodafone controlled CW. But just as Vodafone wants to buy CW as cheaply as possible Orbis wants to sell its shares for as much as possible.
Press releases, media soundbites and backdoor whispering are great currencies at the moment for making CW's share price move (mainly downwards) with very little volume.
There is absolutely no risk, and quite a bit of upside, with the share price at this level for patient holders.

[buywell2] 03/5/2012 11:30

buywell2 27 Apr'12 - 12:33 - 4869 of 4992 edit

I don't see any reason why VOD should be in a hurry

Those that sold at circa 38p have probably made the right call

If VOD play hardball and walk away the share flops to 15p chartwise

Then they come back with a 25p bid

It's what I would do



Note Source Bioscience(SBS) today and Cyprotex(CRX) RNS

Yesterday 15% of SBS went through WITHOUT a price change ie somebody took a MASSIVE position , RNS next week will tell us who .... could be ABCAM or HOLOGIC or ILLUMINA .... if so share price will go much higher .... you heard it first

dyor

[forwood] 03/5/2012 11:25

I sold out following day I bought on the continued weakness,for a small loss. Thank goodness, as it has continued to fall. Only thing I can think is that the continued fall makes the offer look better and will persuade more holders to accept. There is a risk here as the cheaper it gets, the more someone else may be tempted into the frame. I am sceptical though and will probably steer clear.

[essentialinvestor] 03/5/2012 11:25

Some are cleaning up here on the short side, for now at least.

[targatarga] 03/5/2012 11:23

suppose they can't under the rules.... oh dear

[targatarga] 03/5/2012 11:18

tonsil - wish they'd go hostile.... love to see fireworks

[tonsil] 03/5/2012 10:42

good question why are VOD /UBS not snapping up the shares at 4/5p below the bid price?
There is a bigger game going on here? or are they not allowed to do that once a bid is announced?

[pennypunter] 03/5/2012 10:16

problem here is no other offer on the table. Orbis are stupid to say they would be minority holders if the bid succeeds, VOD would then be under no obligation whatsoever and the stake would have no clear realisable value. Just another much of City spivs who are locked into big losses whether the bid rises a few pence or not.

[uxb_steve] 03/5/2012 09:42

Hi All
Just back from 10 days holiday and I think I have gone through a time warp.
I was eagerly awaiting news of a bid while share price was 32p.
Now I am back I am once again eagerly awaiting news - but the share price has shot up to 33p.
As I get older -I become confused ever more easily.... ( and I seem to ageing very quickly following this share deal! )

[rogermauricesmith] 03/5/2012 08:37

msouth999

As I said a long time ago this is one of the most intriguing takeover battles since Nestle/Rowntree 24 years ago.

We have a business that the majority of us on this board agree is being sold for a bargain price - yet at the same time it is currently trading at 10% under that same offer price.

And added to that if the bargain bid fails everyone seems to agree the share price will halve leaving it valued at barely 1.5 times ebdita.

We also have the spectacle of the bidder's adviser and merchant bank (UBS) heavily shorting the stock every day and then buying the shares back in.

This spectacle (and it can only be labelled as such) has another 60/90 days to run. It sees quite obvious that we are in for a wild ride in the next three months where anything could happen. We should not be surprised when it does.

[squintyflinty12] 03/5/2012 08:32

Hope it drops to 20p.Orbis will then have to accept the 38p deal otherwise their shareholders and investors will roast them!!!!

[msouth999] 03/5/2012 07:49

frankly i dont understand whats going on here but 2 things stick out a mile for me on this transaction;

the first is why are folks investing their money with ORBIS when they have clearly demonstrated they are incapable of running a fund that has a CW. stake valued @ 53p when for well over 9 months the share price value was mere low double figures??? Surely they are irresponsible for not lowering their clients stake positions by mopping up millions of shares at 16 to 20p..........their average COULD have been in mid 30's..(funny that).
the second is why are JP Morgan who are acting on behalf of VOD not buying up every available CW. share that becomes available under 38p??????? It is in their interest to do so, lower price and greater control of vote.

Dont get it at all.

[az209] 03/5/2012 07:36

Whatever's going on , it stinks !

[rogermauricesmith] 02/5/2012 20:52

djwr100

Hmm
It does appear that, in this instance, that the someone on CW's side, is, hmm, actually the same someone who is on Vodafone's side.

[djwr100] 02/5/2012 18:30

So, a massive sale early in the day drives prices down, and then millions of tiny buys get it all back again, but this time the price stays low.

The market doesn't notice, the ploy is repeated every day, and it continues to work.

Hmm.

But, having sold so many so low, doesn't that put the short seller at risk, and he also has his costs to worry about?

It doesn't seem an easy game to win. Clever, though.

Is it legal for someone making a bid to have its side doing this?

And why isn't someone on CWs side doing the reverse, to drive up the price?

[abbs] 02/5/2012 18:19

Its all about timing and volume.

[djwr100] 02/5/2012 18:10

I'm afraid that I might not be the sharpest knife in the box, after all, I bought into this company years ago! ;-) Anyway..

If selling short forces the price down, how come buying back doesn't put the price up?

Is this something that I can try?

[rogermauricesmith] 02/5/2012 17:36

djwr100

It appears UBS is selling CW shares short and then buying them back later in the day. It is more or less covering itself every day. Timed correctly this will have the effect of forcing down the CW share price - which is exactly what is happening.

Why it is doing this and whether it should be doing this, is, of course, a matter of conjecture.

I'm no expert on such market practices and would welcome input.

[gurunostradamus] 02/5/2012 16:10

...u still holding udik...

[diku] 02/5/2012 16:08

That's how they make themselves look busy!....

[djwr100] 02/5/2012 16:05

I can't figure this out.

If they are buying back shorts, then they are buying shares to give to someone else. To cancel out a loan. So, whose shares are they selling, if they are buying and selling? Do they own shares as well as having shorts?

What's the point in being on both sides of a trade?

How do they benefit?

How does a neutral position keep the price down?