Cable & Wireless Share Discussion Threads

[the stinger] 04/5/2012 07:52

ORBIS being disgruntled have allowed PI's to free money - lol

Cheers ORBIS......keep it up,,,may even get some more cheaper!

[msouth999] 04/5/2012 07:46

Guys - ORBIS have an easy way out and i am still totally amazed by their ongoing publicly stated position..........why is their average share price still 53p????????

Why dont they simply BUY every available share @ todays 33p probably 32p when we open and start to AVERAGE down their position (why they didnt do it when we were at 15p level shows that someone WASNT managing the fund very well or even bothering to check the CW. share price). They have no excuse, they could easily get their average down to below the VOD 38p bid level with a bit of buying.

RMS i am with you on this one VOD will acquire CW. and IMHO @ 38p declared. ORBIS will have to accept otherwise they will do a PR self destruct and fund income will decline (i think it will anyway now that they have been exposed as holding a position so remote from reality).........thats their issue

[the stinger] 04/5/2012 07:37

'Upon the Scheme becoming effective, it will be binding on all CWW Shareholders, irrespective of whether or not they attended or voted at the Court Meeting or the General Meeting' - Orbis effectively cannot stop this deal...

Also - VOD can elect to go takeover thus requiring only 50% of shares for the deal to become effective.....

This is now a bargain share....38p minimum guaranteed in about 3 months time (or less) from 33p per share today or even less per share?..... Beats a savings account for sure!

No Brainer if there ever was one.....

[7kiwi] 04/5/2012 07:19

RMS,

Err....at the half year, net assets were £902m (including some £476m of intangibles).

I would hazard a guess that these will be lower when the full year results are published later this month.




And read the 8.3 forms more carefully, it look to me like there's a lot of trading going on, but that the respective brokers of CW and VOD are not building significant net short positions. Maybe some are building straddle positions.


milacs,

What has been sleazy or iniquitous about the process so far? The underlying issue, is that Pluthero and Marsh made a big mess of things. What is going on now is the clean-up activity.

[milacs] 04/5/2012 03:06

As a small shareholder in CW I am amazed the shenanigans endemic in this takeover saga has not raised any comments/actions from the financial regulatory authorities.

This process has been beset by sleeze and greed and reflects very badly on the London Stock Exchange where it appears anything goes.

Surely this cesspool of iniquity should be avoided by small investors whose rights are simply trampled upon.

M

[rogermauricesmith] 04/5/2012 00:55

Boix
I disagree. This is a game. The game is winning control of CW.
Winning control of CW means Vodafone becomes second biggest telco in Britain after BT. That's a big prize and Vodafone now appears to want it very badly.
Vodafone has spelt out how important winning CW is to it. So why would Vodafone walk when it is so close to getting what it wants. If it did walk then someone else will get CW.
So far Vodafone and UBS have won every round of this battle - another reason not to walk.
And make no mistake Vodafone can increase its offer in so many ways. One easy way that comes to mind would be a special dividend paid by CW (with Vodafone's approval) before the deal completes.
Secondly it can dump the scheme of arrangement and proceed with a traditional offer and then it can make a new offer at any price it likes.
Of course Vodafone wants everyone to know it will walk and it has totally spooked the market. I disagree with you that the price is falling because no one thinks the deal will go through - the price is falling because everyone close to Vodafone and CW are shorting the stock continually.
Lastly why would Tata make an offer at 24p (£650 million) when the stock was at 36p (at the time) and the net assets of the business are £1.5 billion.
But this is just my opinion. Your perception of the situation has been far more right than mine so far and your post no 4903 of 30th April may be the end game that eventually prevails.

[boix] 03/5/2012 20:46

I sold out on Monday
This is no game of bluff.
They will walk without agreement @ 75%
They have to - no choice.
Vod are not allowed to increase the offer.
It's not allowed without another higher offer being made by a 3rd party.
Get it?
It's no game.
Has the penny dropped yet?
The next highest offer was tata at c. 24p but are they still interested anyway?
As I said see you at 24p
No bluff

[thehairydagger] 03/5/2012 19:34

VOD would have known ORBIS situation before they bid.

[rogermauricesmith] 03/5/2012 18:25

Mamcw

Thanks for the enlightenment. It seems to me that Vodafone will resort to the more traditional offer arrangement.
And of course if Vodafone was out there buying in stock then the share price would be over 38p making it difficult for it to do so. That doesn't seem to be in its gameplan yet.

[rogermauricesmith] 03/5/2012 18:20

Careful,

I take your point. But there are other options for the board of CW that presumably weren't available to Sainsbury. Selling off the assets piecemeal and returning cash to shareholders along the way is one. Running the business for cash is another.
Example: Richard Desmond bought Express Newspapers for circa £100 million in November 2000. Almost 12 years later he has sucked over £700 million from that business simply be eschewing capital investment and letting what assets there were sweat. And after all that the rump of the Express business is probably still worth £30-£40 million even after Desmond has squeezed it dry. Philip Green did something similar to BHS and Arcadia by selling off assets piecemeal. CW is well set up for either treatment.

And there could be some very pleasant surprises for anyone who does it. Freehold property for one. How much has CW got? - you would be most surprised. And so would John Pluthero if he had ever thought to have it revalued.

[thehairydagger] 03/5/2012 17:28

If VOD up the bid TATA will pay towards it.

[djwr100] 03/5/2012 17:12

Thanks. That's interesting.

Can an amended structure include a new higher offer price?

[mamcw] 03/5/2012 17:01

At the moment, the VOD offer is structured as a Scheme of Arrangement. Under this, any shares owned by VOD cannot be counted in the vote. Accordingly, if VOD buys shares in the market, it has the effect of strengthening Orbis's position - you need a 75% of those who vote at the Meeting to get a Scheme approved, at which point VOD owns all the CWW shares.

VOD has reserved the right to amend its offer structure to a more traditional "offer" under the take-over code. Under this, VOD can buy shares in the market and these count towards the standard 50% acceptance condition, at which point VOD could declare its offer unconditional. However, to force a buyout of all shareholders, it needs to get 90% acceptances. This would definitely leave Orbis with the option of staying in as a minority, which is something VOD may not be very keen on as it needs to own at least 75% of CWW to get the tax grouping (which presumably was a material calculation in arriving at its offer price).

Hence the stand-off.

[thehairydagger] 03/5/2012 17:00

BOIX, It's just strong arm tactics, calm down man.

[boix] 03/5/2012 16:03

See you at 24p.
This will keep dropping as I said last week.

[thehairydagger] 03/5/2012 14:06

Just bought some more, 15% profit not to be sniffed @.

[djwr100] 03/5/2012 13:39

To get 45pc of the shares they actually have to buy some, and what better to get them at a 5p discount.

There's no evidence that they are doing that.

If they control the company presumably they will want to increase the profit from their investment, and maybe will manage it better, which is in our interests too.

Incidentally, all this short selling involves borrowing shares, then giving them back when they are worth less. What sort of fool is lending them in order to lose out?

[careful] 03/5/2012 13:00

what happens if vod have(say) 45% of the shares?
it could walk away and yet effectively control the company.
this game is not over yet.

the real weakness of the vod shareholders position is that the cw. board recommended the deal.
they will have squeezed every penny out of Vod after failing to get tata over 25p.

[jimrclark] 03/5/2012 12:54

The current price suggests that ORBIS can scupper this deal and that vod are more likely to walk than to increase the offer.

Having said that, the price is being manipulated down by those that want the deal to go through - I still think that it's all about heaping pressure on ORBIS.

I don't hold any cw shares - sold out at 37.4p but I might be tempted back in.
I happen to think that ORBIS are right to hold out, either for a better offer or for a recovery - as a private investor, my measly holding wouldn't have made any difference but ORBIS only need a few % holders to support them.

I think, of all the scenarios, the least likely is that vod will walk but just now, we have a mexican stand-off.

Who has got more to lose? I think Vod have more to lose and that they are likely to blink first!

I'm talking myself to buying back in!!

[careful] 03/5/2012 12:49

rms
it is not worth doing if the bid fails and vod just sits on its holding.
Quatar investments failed to take out Sainsbury a while back after offering 600p.
today it is sitting on its 30% holding ..now 310p per share.

[enormouswillie] 03/5/2012 12:46

I am stunned by the current share price.

[rogermauricesmith] 03/5/2012 12:42

MikeStamp

Sorry I'm not up to date. CW earns less than half a per cent on its cash pile. Perhaps it should put it in a building society.
But it's still worth doing plus there is the chance of a sweetener and even another bid.

[mikestamp] 03/5/2012 12:22

You get 3%, well 2.9%.