C4x Discovery Share Discussion Threads

[alloa2003] 16/4/2021 21:52

That is my understanding as well - they are working on quasi existing treatments but a different type of delivery system. That was my understanding from one of Clive's early videos. Nothing is guaranteed with the treatments but I dont think the risk is as high as "traditional" new drugs. I stand corrected if I am wrong.

[1aconic] 16/4/2021 08:38

Good video - thanks for sharing. I think it's less than 10% too but my understanding is that they believe the odds to be higher due to the way the molcules are discovered. As I understand it, the whole thesis for C4X's existance is to get molecules more likely to work and improve success rates in later stages.

[toffeeman] 14/4/2021 14:44

I think it is fewer than 10% Dave

[davemac3] 14/4/2021 14:38

only 10% of drugs entering Phase 1 make it to market, the deals will be back loaded with big bucks only coming after Phase 2 which will be 3 or 4 years away. So they will need more early stage deals or hopefully the early stage milestone payments will be enough to keep them going without further funding.

[alloa2003] 14/4/2021 12:07

The market is waiting for the next stage for each of these deals. However, if I was part of C4XD management I would be considering these figures:- Potential income: Upwards of $800m Market cap: $130m Make a bid at 80p a share, cost $260m (less shares already held by management/potential concert parties if taken private). Circa 25% of the potential future income would cover the cost with a pipeline thrown in for free and a state of the art drug discovery system. Alternatively, one of the 2 signees for existing deals could take them out, cover the cost from potential payment/royalty savings in the future and have a business for nothing. All in all, assuming at least partial success with one of the two deals, where is the downside?

[davemac3] 13/4/2021 20:38

a successful phase 2 on either project will be worth the market cap by themselves.

[alloa2003] 13/4/2021 19:34

To be fair to Clive, the potential figures on this one (and the last one) speak for themselves.

[az4hr] 13/4/2021 18:56

Brilliant deal but clive has history for over promising and under delivering.

[ayl30] 13/4/2021 07:21

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/biotech-firm-c4x-discovery-strikes-deal-with-sanofi-ztx5stt6q?shareToken=5101c586ee780b9d2ad11902b11155ca

[trotterstrading] 12/4/2021 15:59

I remember about 4 years ago Clive telling us they would land 3 deals like this per year within 3 years.. lol. It's been 2 years or more since the last deal so far to say they are well behind schedule!

[jev1] 12/4/2021 15:19

Blame the Vikings. 'late 16th century (denoting a clump of grass or weeds in a field): perhaps of Scandinavian origin and related to Norwegian dialect dolp ‘lump’.'

[sphere25] 12/4/2021 15:11

I don't know anything about this company, but going through today's news... Isn't that the type of FLASHING DISCO LIGHTS RNS that the market usually gets SUPER DOOPER excited over? The volume isn't exciting and the price hasn't moved ROCKET SHIP, so perhaps it was expected? Still, if some whoppers and I mean WHOPPERS went through here, I'd jump on board for a quick one. Odd reaction in such rampant bullish times, usually only need to provide a very small dollop of potential or jam. That looks like a rather big dollop. Dollop - who comes up with these words and where is my Etymologist when in hour of need. All imo DYOR

[davemac3] 12/4/2021 14:11

Thanks t0pgrader, good video. Clive sounds quite confident, although disappointed he didn't update on NRF-2.

[t0pgrader] 12/4/2021 13:56

Dave - watch the video. CD says Sanofi will make the final molecule selection.

[davemac3] 12/4/2021 13:50

The fact that Sanofi have bought the programme rather than a specific compound is interesting. That together with the preclinical milestones suggests C4X haven't yet identified a clinical candidate. The programme has been going a long time (maybe 6 years or more)so must be showing some promise. I think the preclinical milestones should be quicker than waiting for a clinical readout. There could have been competition for the program hence the early stage deal.

[alloa2003] 12/4/2021 13:32

The irony is that if the share price/market cap was double or treble what it is now, people would not see these deals as pie in the sky - which they arent - they would be more believable. At the moment we are in the area where people look at the potential income and market cap and think, like we do, something doesnt look right. The truth is the market has not woken up or cant see past the initial fund raising debacle which saw us crash a couple of years ago. These shares were over £1 at one point after the IND deal (although I appreicate a lot more shares have since been issued). This deal is potentially twice the size, with earlier upfront payments but a greater degree of risk. Yes, there are still risks but the market has not adjusted the risk/reward ratio in the share price. If more deals are announced, and the market doesnt react, the company would be a prime takeover target. Potentially huge income streams which could be monitized if products make it to market - a takeover could potentially fund itself. Interesting....

[t0pgrader] 12/4/2021 13:27

CD expecting Indivior P1 trial to close soon.

[ivor hunch] 12/4/2021 13:03

It's not only the deals that encourage me, it's the fact that they provide proof of concept and create confidence that the business model works. It seems likely that c4xd has other potentially significant drugs in the pipeline waiting to be developed by the big players like Sanofi. So in my view today's announcement is confirmation that the business model is viable with huge potential. At some stage the market will wake up to this potential.

[astorcourt] 12/4/2021 12:59

Story has hit The Times newspaper.

[astorcourt] 12/4/2021 12:51

C4XD would make a nice takeover target at multiples of current share price, given the potential of these deals. Clive has stated he is not interested in selling but he does have a track record in this area.

[bamboozler] 12/4/2021 12:44

There is an important point that comes out in the interview when Clive highlights that not only do C4X hope to get the more milestone cash before it reaches the clinic but significantly C4X are not paying for the development from this earlier stage. It is a double positive on the cash front which will delay or remove requirements for further funding.

[alloa2003] 12/4/2021 12:36

I think the irony with the two deals announced so far is that they are so much bigger than the company's market cap that people just dismiss them as pie in the sky. However, they are real and if even one of the treatments made it to market it would be a game changer. As I mentioned earlier, from what I read, these arent new treatments as such just new ways of delivering them. As a consequence I also read that they wont have to jump through all of the regulatory hoops. Interesting times ahead.....

[astorcourt] 12/4/2021 12:27

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/946268/c4x-discovery-announce--sizeable-deal-and-one-we-re-very-proud-of--with-sanofi-worth-up-to-414mln-946268.html

[alloa2003] 12/4/2021 12:25

Just watched video - interesting update

[astorcourt] 12/4/2021 12:23

welcome sir.