Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[this tea tastes of chicken] 12/9/2023 11:15

That was me papy, I’m fairly certain the answer to all this for both parties lies in the Gulf.

[hpcg] 12/9/2023 10:41

Tomtrudgian - I don't think you appreciated what I was saying. I was doing some back of the envelope calculations as to the wiggle room Burford has in a rational sense. The 8% simple interest, representative of equity or commercial returns, is, summed up, greater than the inflation adjustment which is necessarily a compound calculation. Thus Burford could afford to get negotiated down on the interest and still retain the value of the principal. I'm framing this is terms of an evaluation of a business negotiation; one always has to know ones boundaries and thus when to walk away from the table.

[papy02] 12/9/2023 10:24

« Part of the solution » for me brings to mind the suggestion someone made here earlier of involving a (the) SWF

[sam55todd] 12/9/2023 10:23

It might be worth taking a look at award distributions in other market participants, let's say LSE:LIT with this RNS



shows that despite owning only 25% of the case (the rest sold to "third party" e.g. fund managed by them) - 50% of gross profit attributable to shareholders are coming from performance fees (their fund) from that "third party" and 50% are from their own direct investment return and success fee.
Therefore depending on what fund management arrangements BUR has and despite their case ownership of slightly above a third - their gross total reward could be much higher (net of costs).

[tomtrudgian] 12/9/2023 10:23

Curious wording, hpgc. No part of either the pre or post judgement interest, whether paid in full or not, on time or not, is or will ever be compounded. It is fixed simple interest. In other words Annual Percentage Rate, not Annualised Percentage Rate (both, confusingly for many, known as APR)

[hpcg] 12/9/2023 09:57

50% of the award is the simple interest. Argentina could have settled near a decade ago and saved itself a lot of headline cash. I would have suggested previously that Burford would not have settled at 50% of the total award but that is at the furthest edge conceivable. This is my "worst case" scenario and is still 3 times the current value in the accounts.

In terms of the time value of money compounded USD inflation is 1.33 ( hxxps://www.inflationtool.com/us-dollar/2012-to-present-value ) while the simple interest is circa 1.88. One should probably compound the fed funds rate but I am not aware of a published series that does that, and I am not about to start one! This give scope for some give on Burford's part. There is little point in giving up the principal and the time value though.

[alfredomega] 12/9/2023 09:11

They could give Burford 51% of YPF, then Burford would be obliged to launch a tender offer for the rest 49%.

Plot twist LOL!!

[donald pond] 12/9/2023 08:34

That "part of the solution" is interesting. Burford have previously taken shares in companies as part settlement. I wonder if they could do something creative with Argentina's mineral wealth?

[djderry] 12/9/2023 00:32

Masterclass from Molot on Bloomberg.Litigation funding rights wrongs that would otherwise go unchallenged.
Burford is not out to embarrass Argentina.
Burford is a ' responsibile commercial actor'.
Burford wants to be ' part of the soloution'.
This will need to be resolved at a political level.
The grown-ups have arrived!

[dead duck resources] 11/9/2023 23:23

Findings of Fact and Conclusisions of Law
“The Argentine Republic vigorously took with both hands. It does not offend equity for it to give back now in equal measure.”

Where was this equity in the Ecuador vs Chevron case? This judge heard from an activist working on villagers behalf then sentenced him to the maximum half-year's imprisonment for a misdemeanour. In conclusision, what an awful judge.


Loretta Preska the judge who did Chevron’s bidding in the case against activist Steven Donziger, has a history of conflicts of interest and pro-corporate rulings.

Critics pointed to Preska’s seat on the advisory board of the NY chapter of right-wing judicial lobby the Federalist Society, where Chevron is a donor. As might be expected Preska has a history of pro-corporate rulings with bad outcomes for working people.

The Donziger case is an example of breathtaking institutional corruption, but it’s only the most dramatic, hard-to-believe instance of the way that business power has infected the unusually powerful US courts. As Preska’s career shows, corporate America has found a way to shape ordinary people’s lives through the courts in all manner of quieter, more understated ways.

[this tea tastes of chicken] 11/9/2023 22:45

JM doing talking head on the bloom tv about 45 mins ago

hxxps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0RLGwh2mtA

[1aconic] 11/9/2023 20:13

Interestingly, on his personal website Kicillof isn't quite as objective and does rant a teeny bit about vultures!

His opening and closing lines appear to directly accuse the US courts of deliberate and calculated foreign intervention in the upcoming election. He's the gift that keeps on giving to plaintiff's lawyers!

He also repeats that "YPF's potential is infinite and its value incalculable" and that it was the most courageous and important political act of recent decades. States that it's estimated that Vaca Muerta will achieve US$18bn annually in export revenues.

It's a shame that he seems so dilusional because in that case (and under half competent governance) the country's people should be just fine and there shouldn't be any issue paying their debts in full...

[chester9] 11/9/2023 19:38

From Seb"The Court also rejects the Republic's attempt to incorporate BurfordCapital in this litigation. This remains a case filed by the plaintiffs against a defendant as a result of their unlawful conduct towards them, and the relevant question is how much the Republic owes the plaintiffs to compensate them for the loss of the use of their money.This case is not about what the plaintiffs have done or will do with what is owed to them. The Republic owes neither more nor less for the participation of Burford Capital. In addition, the Republic used the resources and advantages it had as a sovereign entity to try to avoid paying what it owed. Despite these efforts, he did not hesitate to spend a considerable amount of money on his legal Defence.If the plaintiffs had to sell a substantial part of their potential compensation to ensure the necessary financing to file their claims and litigate their claims until their conclusion against a powerful sovereign State that has behaved in this way, this is one more reason to grant the plaintiffs all of their damages"Judge Loretta Preska.South District Court of New YorkSeptember 8, 2023717 25621 8,6051.Post your reply

[1aconic] 11/9/2023 19:33

Stentorian - good point about the vulture fund tag being dropped, I hadn't explicitly noted that one. Agree that the tone in all the articles has definitely changed drastically; much more pragmatic and looking for the correct places to lay the blame. One Clarin article I read suggested new charges are being considered against Kicilloff and Cristina for their roles in the whole saga (to add to the ever expanding list of things she's being investigated for). She's apparently got a personal net worth in the region of US$120m (the legally declared part of it at least).

[bradvert] 11/9/2023 18:50

Not least because YPFs market cap is $5b so the governments 51% stake worth around $2.5b, which wouldn't even touch the sides against last week's 16b award...

[375uv] 11/9/2023 18:42

One of the three candidates is evaluating taking a loan against Argentina's 51% stake in YPF and use proceeds to partially repay whatever both sides agree. This plan needs support from the new Congress whose composition will be determined in October 22. Patience.

The privatization (again) doesn't have legs.

[flare1] 11/9/2023 18:29

For all we know both parties could be negotiating a deal right now. That's the beauty of owning a share like Burford. You just never know until it happens.

The way forward for Argentina is quite clear in my mind. Negotiate a deal with Burford. Sell a portion of YPF shares to cover Burford's claim and when doing so, sweeten the deal by granting new/improved drill rights to the new YPF share holders (a major) - all at no cost to the Argentinian government or people.

[hpcg] 11/9/2023 17:10

1aconic - 969, good post. The argument on here about the post-judgement interest rate was bizarre IMO. Getting the Fed Funds rate is fantastic. I literally took money out of short term instruments to buy in here today. Personally I am not sure Argentina will appeal as they have no hope of winning and it just puts their dollar cost up. To raise the money they could sell shares in YPF. They'll try to negotiate, but that would be with the individual parties, and up to those stakeholders.

[stentorian] 11/9/2023 17:07

1aconic, I've had an eye on the Argentine press too. A lot of the rhetoric re 'vulture funds' has been replaced with actual reporting of the case. It is interesting how the $16bn has been split-out into damages and prejudgment interest. Making the point that the Argentine Government have fought over such a protracted length of time they have manifested a large part of the damages themselves.

[1aconic] 11/9/2023 16:58

I've been reading through some of the Argentine press reports today and a couple of points are being made that question whether the new government will appeal. They note that appealing could cost Argentina an extra $1.6bn a year in interest, additional legal costs, etc. There's a notable quote from the lesser spoken about candidate (Bullrich) about getting the economy back on track and paying their debts. There's also plenty of reference about just how valuable YPF's assets are.

[stentorian] 11/9/2023 16:52

I have never understood the mentality of investing in a share and then constantly berating the company and its shareholders for doing what it is supposed to do. Burford have been in Petersen since 2015 - that is 8 years. These shareholders seemingly hate what the company does, but still invest because of the monetary returns it provides them. To salve their conscience they complain. There seems to be an inverse square law - the more money they make, the more they complain about the way in which they have made all of that money... it is a less physical form of the 'Stockholm Syndrome'.

If you object to what Burford does so profusely simply sell the share and move on and stop bigging yourself up by putting other shareholders down.

You could always take the proceeds and open a bakery in Buenos Aires.

[chucko1] 11/9/2023 16:36

Donald, I have been dealing with Argentina since about 1993. Corruption starts as soon as you have landed and want to get through customs. That is where your first "payment" is required.

Nigeria little different.

[hpcg] 11/9/2023 16:33

All Argentina had to do was apply some supplementary taxes. It happens to commodity producers the world over and is part of, and a risk of, doing business.