Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[purplepelmets] 06/5/2023 07:00

Hopefully be some RNSs concerning other interests to keep momentum. Surprised it's been so strong since THE ruling was announced TBH.

[chester9] 06/5/2023 06:59

Dividend is getting pretty small now as the Sp is really moving up. Q1 reporting is expected in May but might get pushed to June, they should show real progress from courts reopening and then Q2. We know with elections in Argentina the CASE will be kicked down the road by them. I have some AIM shares that are at best unreliable but have huge promise. This one in my opinion has a one way trajectory for years forward. The upside of major resolutions wipes out 5% short term drops in seconds. HOLD and enjoy the journey. As always DYOR.

[waldron] 06/5/2023 05:56

Would not be surprised to see a down trend in coming weeks if no positive news

[waldron] 06/5/2023 05:49

Latest Dividends

Summary Previous dividend Next dividend

Status Paid Declared

Type Interim Final

Per share 6.25c 6.25c

Declaration date 09 Aug 2022 (Tue) 13 Mar 2023 (Mon)

Ex-div date 03 Nov 2022 (Thu) 25 May 2023 (Thu)

Pay date 01 Dec 2022 (Thu) 16 Jun 2023 (Fri)

[waldron] 06/5/2023 05:46

Upcoming events on BURFORD CAPITAL LIMITED


May/25/23 Final dividend EX


July/27/23 Q2 2023 Earnings Release (Projected)

[waldron] 06/5/2023 05:44

Looking toppy,must break thru resistance if it wishes to hit loftier targets

What with dividend day soon to be upon us, there might well be the customary consolidation

One wonders whether there might be real news before july

[kannerwas] 05/5/2023 08:27

a) I can't see any experienced judge issuing a ruling that he/she is not convinced by, in order to provide an inducement to one of the parties to settle

b) If Argentina wants YPF to carry on as normal, then presumably a finding against YPF would have been an even greater inducement to settle

[donald pond] 05/5/2023 07:23

Preska ruled out claim v YPF on grounds that weren't entirely convincing. I thought it was the carrot for Argentina: if you settle then YPF can carry on as normal.

[purplepelmets] 05/5/2023 07:16

Exoneration?

[jockthescot75] 04/5/2023 20:06

Seb Maril update today, using Twitter translate:-

Tomorrow, Friday, Argentina will make one last attempt to convince Judge Preska to reconsider the ruling for the expropriation of YPF.
- Preska will surely publish his decision before MAY31.
- If the request is rejected, Arg will appeal the MAR31 ruling and Burford will appeal the YPF exoneration.

[this tea tastes of chicken] 04/5/2023 08:11

Sterling attracting capital as it needs higher interest rates than other G7 and higher for longer as inflation less under control than elsewhere. In the long term sterling will flick back as it has to cut interest rates given the collapse in growth (if there was any in the first place) that results from the higher rates. Ergo, I would rather be in dollar denominated assets anyway

[saltraider] 03/5/2023 21:27

Well, RAR100, I have been fairly harsh in my response to some of your (long-ago) earlier posts but I do agree with you here.

Muddy Waters took advantage of an 'open goal' presented by the complexity and poor presentation of BUR's business ... it cost me a lot of money. No matter ... MW was 100% wrong and the underlying value is still there.

I've held in adversity and I still hold in hope. I am sure my (significant) reward will follow.

[hohum1] 03/5/2023 21:21

Haven’t seen the asset split recently but it is predominantly a dollar business. So the former would be nearer the mark.

[gettingrichslow] 03/5/2023 20:01

Not sure if this is a stupid question or not - but if the pound was still trading at the Liz Truss era lows of circa 1.05 dollars/pound, would BUR now be trading at circa $13.55/1.05=£12.90 a share? Or would it be trading at much the same level in pounds as it is now, but much lower in dollar terms?

[tomtrudgian] 03/5/2023 19:24

Thanks kuk1doh. The 31 March 2023 (partial) judgement was indeed a hugely significant event. I completely agree that it will increase the carrying value of Burford’s reported assets in 2023 and beyond, until payment or sold on. That has always been standard accounting practice and has not changed. However reported profits will be a little different as they will now be spread over time.

What I was trying to explain is that now the US Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) has, properly but quite extraordinarily, agreed to fair value being applied to the results for 2019, 20, 21 and now 22, all has changed.

The asset values may be significantly increased in each of the four prior years. Overall, reported profits will increase too but moderately, as they will be spread over prior years. Corporation Tax, lawyer’s & auditor’s fees, and probably staff and other commissions will go up too.

In summary:
1/ Retail Shareholders like me should stay long term for this exciting ride, providing they expect to be scared on occasion.

2/ Each of the 2023 Quarterly results will be unaudited and a bit of a guess. Indeed an adverse court judgement on the interest rate and/or length could conceivably turn one of the quarters into a loss.

3/ I cannot see many institutional shareholders for some years yet so the ride may still be bumpy.

4/ In my view the positive reputational effect of Burford’s win may both badly hurt their smaller competitors, and could be nearly as significant as the Petersen win itself.

5/ Fairly soon shareholders and directors should start to think about the Founder’s successors.

[lomax99] 03/5/2023 19:09

Seeking Alpha - written before todays RNSHttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4599284-burford-capital-stock-small-losses-large-profits?mailingid=31358281&messageid=2800&serial=31358281.543&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=31358281.543

[rar100] 03/5/2023 18:57

gettingrichslow,

A lot of people got burnt through M Waters, paying circa £20 a share and within a couple days or so the value was £4 or so. And they highlighted some bad things which BUR changed but s*it sticks. And it's fair value etc. is very complex, most investors want something simpler to understand. Diego makes booze which a lot of folk buy - simple.
Argentina is worse than a basket case, it got an IMF loan recently of approx $4 to 5 billion so that it could pay the interest on the IMF 45billion loan. Inflation 105% plus, crazy it's loaded with resources but idiots in Govt. They will probably pay in tiny bits over many years until they get a sensible Govt.
And it's a very very dodgy time now for stocks for lots of reasons so I play safe. I read a US shares headline a couple of months ago, it said DONT BUY ANYTHING NOW. There's wisdom in those words.
I've sold all shares and stuck it Fundsmith Equity and it's doing well after a bad year.
A lot of the market have no idea what's coming next so are cautious IMHO. GLA

[lomax99] 03/5/2023 18:50

I don't think the market is thinking, one day the penny will drop...

[gettingrichslow] 03/5/2023 18:05

When you look at the long term share price chart it does seem rather strange that we are still so far below the levels of early 2019, just before the Muddy Waters ‘report’. Surely any concerns emanating from that report should now be well and truly dispelled? And we’ve had the Petersen news. Yet still it trades at levels far below early 2019? What is the market thinking?

[sogoesit] 03/5/2023 15:55

“De-dollarisation” is a fictional narrative made up by some folks trying to manipulate others for one reason or another.
Much like accountancy models about future values (see SEC rules on petroleum reserves for example).
Make a human judgement or, alternatively, leave it to AI and see where that goes!!

[kaos3] 03/5/2023 13:20

Further thoughts on the de dollarization and its impact on BUR.

USD is loosing its purchasing power due to the regular monetary inflation and the courts are taking care of this effect by granting the fair compensation in the interest rate form. Pre and post judgement.

But next to the regular inflation there is a high probability that lots of USD will be sent back to the USA due to the de dollarization, which will cause kind of special additional loss of USD purchasing power. The size of the eurodollar market is 3x the size of US GDP and if this huge amounts only partially gets sent home - there is a problem.

Now - if we get awarded x amount of dollars and post judgement interest rate of 5 per cent - how do we hedge the claim against additional loss of USD purchasing power - if the purchasing power of the dollar looses like 30 per cent or more few years later due to the eurodollars being sent home to the USA. Or enter your own substantial figure few years later.

A normal company can adjust its prices. BUR has its situation cast and can not react much - but get paid as soon as possible.

What are the thoughts about the topic.

All numbers are used as an illustration.

TIA

[kuk1doh] 03/5/2023 13:06

Agree Tom, but on the Q1 point, the YPF March 31 judgement release is a significant event on a massive asset that will be counted in Q1… hence Syoun2 “stellar”;, I guess.

[tomtrudgian] 03/5/2023 12:54

The word increase was typed in quotation marks, and not with a 7.