Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[chester9] 16/6/2023 10:51

From Seb TUIT EN ESPAÑOL ABAJO] IMO the responsible approach for the next few months is, once we know the award number, both sides should agree to stay all proceedings and wait until the new government takes office in December and presents its new legal strategy. There will be one.

[jockthescot75] 15/6/2023 20:21

We’ll find out after June 30th Riverman.

[ptolemy] 15/6/2023 16:15

Fundamentals are only part of BURs attraction. I posted this 3-yrs ago. It's no longer the largest AIM Co but the underlying thought is still valid. 1,000 trades today with a 1p spread on a 10 pound share mean its a traders nirvana.


Ptolemy - 25 Jun 2020 - 18602 - It's not just algos. BURF is a dream stock for a trader. It is the largest AIM company, so liquid. Has a monthly share t/o in excess of 300 million, no stamp duty, and (this is the best bit) the bid/offer spread is 0.2% because it's on the SETS electronic order book. It doesn't get any better.

There is a rather large gap to fill if traders take control.

[dgdg1] 15/6/2023 15:58

Well I think the most relevant figures are the Burford only net income of $259m minus $192m of YPF unrealised gains, so $67m ex-YPF (and note that this ignores the fact that some of the costs will be YPF-related so really should be added back on). And this is just for one quarter so if you extrapolated that for the year then it's pretty good really. ($268m).

[riverman77] 15/6/2023 15:25

Results looked good, but mainly driven by YPF. Realisations increased but off a very low base and still pretty thin on the ground. I think we just need to wait for more evidence of actual cash gains in the next couple of updates. Agree that the way they present everything is very complex - I've followed BUR for years and struggle to get my head around everything, so must be really difficult for new investors.

[dgdg1] 15/6/2023 15:17

Thanks to all for posting the Twitter comments. If they are behind today's price fall then it seems somewhat absurd.

[maddox] 15/6/2023 15:03

Well lomax you were correct on Mr Market's reaction to the 1Q23 results. The highlights all look pretty spectacular - three digit percentage increases - loads of positives and yet it failed to impress.

So trying to look at this Mr Market's eyes - I think BUR aren't managing to get the message across - and for some very good reasons. Firstly, YPF is and will remain a distraction and obfuscates the underlying figures. Secondly, there is the further complication of what is the consolidated Group-wide performance and that attributed to Burford-only. Thirdly, the 'unrealized' fair-value uplifts to carrying value put through the P&L.

I'm pretty well acquainted with the terminology but I've struggled trying to re-present these figures into a form that gives me clarity: Ideally, I like to tease out a few key metrics and figures that reflect the performance.

So, great results but poor messaging - they need to work on this.

[houseofpain1] 15/6/2023 13:24

@Chester9 He subsequently posted a second tweet, correcting the one you have posted:

"Although Arg is looking to introduce a new witness that can testify that he signed the acquisition of control on June 12, he will only be in support of Argentina's argument up until May 7, as order by the judge".

Even that isn't quite correct I don't think. He didn't sign an acquisition of control (of if he did, it wasn't mentioned on the call), he was the person who voted Repsol's shares. And that was on 4 June, not 12 June. As I said above, I didn't hear the date of 12 June mentioned on the call. I think someone said June 12 at one point but that was referring to June 2012, rather than 12 June.

[lomax99] 15/6/2023 12:41

On a more positive note dividends are paid tomorrow.

[malc999] 15/6/2023 11:57

Share price now below 50DMA on AIM at which point many traders take profits / cut losses. It will be interesting to see how the price reacts from here, i.e. will the price drift down to below £9 and be met with buying as it was on 9th Apr, or will the price drift further south before recovering. How a share responds to weakness normally gives us an indication of the near-term direction of the price.

Another point worth mentioning although I accept that to some extent I'm stating the obvious - we're currently in a bear market - although it can be argued that the US markets are currently behaving as if the early stages if a bull market may be emerging, we'll see in time if it's a false dawn or a new bull market is actually taking shape. So those of us hoping to see the price rise at some point in the future to reflect a multiple of BVPS will have to wait until it's clear that we are in a bull market imho.

[chester9] 15/6/2023 11:52

Judge Preska May 24: "The Court will not allow Argentina to introduce evidence that it acquired control of YPF's shares after May 7, 2012.Today she said she may allow a new witness testify that Arg acquired control on June 12.Interesting development. Billions of USD in play

[chester9] 15/6/2023 11:51

JUDGE PRESKA: TRIAL TO DECIDE AWARD AMOUNT IN THE YPF EXPROPRIATION CASE WILL TENTATIVELY START ON JUL21. DATE CHANGE POSSIBLE.

[dgdg1] 15/6/2023 10:36

Could someone please post Seb's twitter post in full for those of us who don't have access to Twitter? Thanks in advance.

[houseofpain1] 15/6/2023 09:00

@375UV I agree with djderry that Seb has got it wrong here. The date of 12 June wasn't even mentioned on the call. The new potential fact witness was a lawyer for the Argentine Treasury Attorney General's office and was responsible for voting the government's shares at the first YPF shareholder meeting post the government's occupation of them. That meeting was on 4 June but Argentina's lawyer said nothing to suggest that they would be running, with the help of this new testimony if allowed, an argument that that was the date of first control rather than 7 May which was the date on which the Expropriation Law came into effect. Argentina have until Friday to submit their brief in support of this witness which should provide clarity. Either way, the judge did not sound as if she was minded to allow the witness.

[lomax99] 15/6/2023 08:55

Normal service resumed re SP, decent drops on little/no volume. May top up in the early £8's.

[djderry] 15/6/2023 03:30

Hi 375 UV,I don't think that's correct.Firstly,it's not a given that she will allow the witness,there's going to have to be written submissions as to why this new witness should be allowed testify.Also,Judge Preska made it clear that she wasn't opening up the case,the facts have been proven.It's down to those two matters,the effective date when the Republic expropriated the shares ( and this is sometime between the two dates already stated in the summary judgement,that's a crucial point) and the effective interest rate.
There was a reference to billions in damages ( I think ' up to ten '( billion) but it was in the context of lawyers for the Republic looking for 3/4 days of trial and saying the difference between the two dates ( as established at summary judgement) could have implications of up to ten billion dollars.

[375uv] 14/6/2023 17:45

Nice observation by Seb on this issue:



This is not a good development for Burford if the judge allows the new witness.

[djderry] 14/6/2023 17:37

Re the YPF matter,my understanding is that Judge Preska has asked the parties to confer within the next 24 hours and come back to her with a running order.She wants to get it done quickly.It's been ' process upon process upon process'.Her opening remarks were that it's down to a very narrow set of matters,to the effect that it's a little less complicated than the defendants seem to think and a little more complicated than plaintiffs seem to think,or words to that effect.She wanted to know about the number of witnesses both sides intended to call.The attempt to call a new witness for defendants was challenged.I think the Judge wants a written submission on that.Plaintiffs say one or two day trial.Defendents say three/four.Various dates suggested,July 21 26th,27th,28th.Various reasons why one set of lawyers or another might/ might not make it.Judge has other events on as well.She told them they need to talk,get running order together.That's about it.

[tomtrudgian] 14/6/2023 16:52

Agreed Riverman about bonuses for Burford’s excellent legal staff, but they are few in number.
Depending on the elections, Argentina may no longer be a complete basket case. Recent figures for YPF exports and shale reserves are excellent. So too are beef, grain and in particular wine exports, all paid for in US$.

No idea why the share price has not risen since the 23 Q1 results. However I note the transaction size is often low. I suspect some have borrowed or over extended in the Spring in hope of a rocket price rise. Just a complete guess, but why otherwise has the price dropped?

[williamcooper104] 14/6/2023 16:20

That they get a greater share of profits than shareholders is very unlikely That they get vastly more than a PE general partner is not so unlikely It's a dreadful scheme

[saltraider] 14/6/2023 16:13

But, WC104, I don't suppose that this is actually very likely in practice.

[williamcooper104] 14/6/2023 16:05

The carry scheme for employees is very unusual in that they get rewarded per year vintage So if they do really well one year they get (from memory) 10 percent of profits But if they lose the next year then there's no clawback/offset So it's, in theory at least, possible that management walk away with most of the profits

[riverman77] 14/6/2023 15:48

Had a look through results and nothing really to change my view either way. The next couple of quarters will be key. While very much a bull on BUR my one lingering concern is whether BUR staff rather than shareholders will be the ones to benefit when the big case wins start to come through - the big spike in compensation linked to case wins is something to keep an eye on. Lawyer costs are also going through the roof, and since these are being footed by BUR I'm not sure how this can't also have an impact. But still pretty positive overall.

[syoun2] 13/6/2023 19:56

Good to see no immediate push down on OK & as expected results. Hoping this is the pattern until the bigger numbers get delivered. Hopefully Q2 and tomorrow if we hear outcome on date. Then have result of that & Q2 to look forward to. Love the quarterly updates