Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[dudishes] 01/4/2023 11:37

Ummm,,,,

18.8$ close to the price (£20) prior proper accounting conducted by Muddy Waters 2019!

Despite BUR wasting money, your money, on court proceedings, the share price stayed low and has dwindled since, which suggests that Muddy Waters were spot on.

Beware of greetings by holders, they have lost half of their dosh, don't let them persuade you to lose yours!

cheers

[donald pond] 01/4/2023 11:14

EJ,Argentina will fight, but I was once head of legal for a territory of a global bank and every month we would get an email seeking to identify if we had any accounts belonging to certain countries. Any US court judgment is iirc directly enforceable against dollars anywhere in the world. Argentina have had naval boats seized before. There is a world of embarrassment if they don't pay up. And there will be pressure applied to the world bank and IMF if they send money to a country that has an outstanding judgment debt. And that's the key: unlike a bond holder, Burfords claim never arose from a counterparty risk v Argentina. It was an investment on a NYSE listed company.

[maddox] 01/4/2023 10:46

My maths put a value on BUR as at 31 Dec 22 at $18.8 per share - excluding YPF cases. This is taking account of the BUR's internal modelling, performance fees and B/S cash then deducting debt and fair-value taken into the P/L.

Taking the prior to judgement share price of $7.14 suggests hidden value of $11.66 or x2.63 that share price. But, this is a point in time valuation that takes no account of future growth. BUR added $800m of modelled hidden value in 2022 implying a 21% growth rate that indicates we need to apply a healthy p/e multiple.

I think we can expect that the YPF case will change Mr Market's perception of BUR and the truffle hunters will be wondering what other tasty morsels there are buried in the roots. YPF is then likely to be the trigger for a more realistic market valuation.

Well done all holders - your patience is being rewarded.

Regards, Maddox

[74tom] 01/4/2023 10:18

I’ve just spent a few minutes reading those old John Dizard articles on the FT, they are some of the most biased pieces I’ve ever come across! Remarkable considering the facts of the case, the history of Argentina and embarrassing given the eventual outcome.

I also note that despite the Times, Bloomberg Law (and likely many other outlets) publishing articles in the last 18 hours there is still nothing in the FT, which is pretty revealing.

When was the last time an AIM listed business added just under $1b to its market cap in one session? Maybe never?

[edmondj] 01/4/2023 10:08

Celebratory discussion is focusing on the legal win and delicious proceeds, citing past evidence 'Argentina eventually pays up'.

But as with all legal awards, the next and sometimes harder challenge is enforcing it, getting a debtor to pay.

Need to consider the context of this award relative to others Argentina has historically settled.

Does its extent mean Argentina will likely need to raise debt capital or taxes? How will that go down over years ahead; will Argentinians suck it all up like the British, or might political instability lead to disruption of an extended settlement programme?

[donald pond] 01/4/2023 09:56

Yes, but it is a hard road for them now. A summary judgment means that the judge has ruled that even if you accept all of Argentinas factual arguments, they have no case in law. She went so far as to not require argument because it was in her view so clear. So they would have to win the appeal, which would be to say they might have a potential case, then have a full trial where their facts would be challenged and they would have to win on the law. Any lawyer would tell them the chances from here are vanishingly slim.

[dagoberia] 01/4/2023 09:52

So if Argentina appeals to they have to post a bond and also bring new evidence to the court?

[three black crows] 01/4/2023 09:39

Mr. Pond,The validation of what is fair value will clear the fog and uncertainty that has loomed over Burford. Muddy Waters being the example to mind, but also shortest, maybe, we will see the back of them. When the SEC and Burford agree on this fair value calculation in the next few weeks there will I believe be some sort or a re- rate, wether it be significant or not, we will soon seeWhat will be interesting to see is how the ratings come in.

[donald pond] 01/4/2023 09:26

It is difficult to value but the regulators hate it when accounts are grossly inaccurate. If we say the settlement is worth $6bn, then it was being carried in the accounts at around 13% of its true value. Now enforcement is another issue, but if we are in the endgame of agreeing an approach with the SEC based upon our internal modelling, this outcome is hugely persuasive. And it could well lead to big uplifts in the historic valuations. Not that that really matters, but the validation of the model absolutely does.

[williamcooper104] 01/4/2023 09:15

A pig to value but a valuable pig

[riverman77] 01/4/2023 09:03

For those worried they've missed the boat after yesterday's 50% rise, remember this is only back to where it was last July - the share price had been falling heavily over past 9 months or so for no apparent reason. I'm pretty confident this will be £20 to £40 before too long so still a lot of upside. BUR was about 7% of my portfolio before yesterday's rise (now around 10%)but intend to add a bit more on Monday.

[donald pond] 01/4/2023 08:56

How to value Burford is always going to be a matter for debate, but it does look increasingly as if their internal model is the best guide. IIRC that said the current PF was a smidge under 5bn. This claim looks likely to be in the 5-9bn range, so let's say 7bn. So overall, the PF is worth around $12bn. Borrowings are £1bn, so let's say the whole thing is "worth" around $10.5bn/£8bn. Then you want to discount back because things take a while to settle, but an EV of £6bn does not seem unreasonable. That would justify a current market cap of around £28. And if results pick up quarter on quarter, we could get there this year imo.

[kuk1doh] 01/4/2023 08:35

My thanks also to the fabulous contributors on this board. You’ve helped me keep the faith and provided excellent sources so I could DMOR… I sometimes worried about my bias towards those with a similar opinion, but it was reassuring to hear others could see the value on offer.

Lots more to come I’m sure.

[djderry] 01/4/2023 08:32

Pre MW,Chris Bogart was asked by one of the Investors, 'What's to stop this becoming a £20 billion company?' His answer was ' Execution '.We now have ' execution' in spades.
Re 'slainte',ni thosoidh me ag spalpadh Gaeilge!

[kuk1doh] 01/4/2023 08:29

Slàinte, Mr. Irish!

I’ve a particular conundrum after yesterday… I mentioned at home that we are finally in the black on Bur… up 30%… years of averaging down… response “really… finally…”; playful, patronising “well done you!”… I wasn’t asked and didn’t volunteer what 30% was in quantum of cash…

The answer would trigger a response somewhere between “holy sh*t” and “WTF”230; and will certainly lead to greater oversight of my activities…. And I want to hold until $30

To tell or not to tell.. 😀

[williamcooper104] 01/4/2023 08:16

Don't know for sure but think it does

[three black crows] 01/4/2023 08:10

This judgement has come at a good time. The SEC are currently working with Burford to work out a fair value calculation on the value of the company, This case is now decided,. The fog is clearing

[djderry] 01/4/2023 07:56

Over 16 million shares traded in US yesterday,up over 57%.Expect the UK market to start playing catch-up on Monday.

[lomax99] 01/4/2023 07:22

The Times:Https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/burford-boost-after-court-ruling-on-argentina-3qq72gb3m

[lomax99] 01/4/2023 07:17

Sysco caseSarah VS Serial PodcastChris Bogart from 52.25 minutes in:Https://thedispatch.com/podcast/advisoryopinions/sarah-vs-serial/Courtesy of poster on LSE chat board.

[hohum1] 01/4/2023 06:20

Anybody know if Burford Opportunity Fund owns a slice of Petersen?

[feuguru] 01/4/2023 06:15

The cannacord coverage was in the same camp.

[stentorian] 01/4/2023 02:26

dj,

You're right very amusing...he's now had the boot!