Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[pck76] 01/4/2023 00:05

What's the increase, in percentage?

[aishah] 31/3/2023 23:45

US closed @$11.06!

[maddox] 31/3/2023 23:27

Bad news guys - this is going to delay the year-end accounts ;-)

[dagoberia] 31/3/2023 23:16

Yes Thank you to all the insightful posters on here, you were a great help along the way

[amt] 31/3/2023 22:23

Could they now sue those responsible for the huge fall in share price ?
They should be well financed now providing the appeal fails.
Are there any other potential big earners like the Argentinian one ?

[djderry] 31/3/2023 22:14

Just doing my sums,up over a quarter of a million today ( I'm a euro investor).I feel very sorry for those who sold because of the lies/tripe spouted by the shorter brigade,headed by Mr.Block but ably assisted by the rent-a mob who care nothing for facts but will say anything to suit their agenda.Shareholders were robbed of a billion quid and,when the company tried to seek redress,they were stymied by the courts.
Litigation risk in this case is all but extinguished and there is a long way to go.Having said that,I would not be surprised to see the institutions start to deploy capital into the litigation finance leader,given the non-correlated nature of the asset class.Probably the end of the beginning in that sense.

[scubadiverr] 31/3/2023 22:00

I'll second that. And name names ... Donald, Maddox and DJ, even if his tolerance of others views can be poor at times. And the many others that escape me at the current time.

[extrader] 31/3/2023 22:00

Thanks for the above.

Seb also says:
- Argentina can immediately start an appeal or a negotiation;
- BUR can immediately start to seek enforcement agst Argentine assets;
- the gross claim range is $17.5 to $19.38 billion, based on the variables in a YPF formula (start date; amount of base claim; and applicable exchange rate).

The commentators helpfully note that this will be an issue for the new Govt......

NAI, DYOR etc etc

[syoun2] 31/3/2023 21:58

Time in the market not timing of the market. Been in since 2018 and continued to lower average cost. Happy Days at last & if all goes to plan today is just the start of the steep climb in price. Next month is going to be massive for Burford & hopefully climbing towards £20 a share.

[bradvert] 31/3/2023 21:56

Thanks 1iconic - there's another piece on the feed at 17 15 local time with a journalist and lawyer. Journalist talks about the political fallout, and the lawyer reckons they will of course pay (eventually). The rolling screen banner suggests the gross debt might be $20 billion, but that is alarmist surely...  

[donald pond] 31/3/2023 21:54

The big question now is whether they appeal or not, and if they do, what sort of collateral they have to post.
But if Bur does get paid, I'd like to see a big buyback scheme. Imagine if they committed to spending $250m a year buying back shares. That would put a rocket under the share price. We'd be back at £20 in no time.

[williamcooper104] 31/3/2023 21:53

Held from shortly after IPO to MW - then held on and off, with frequent trading - out for most of last 12 months until the share price crash on last RNS/trading update

[1aconic] 31/3/2023 21:45

Sogoesit: holder since 2018 ... averaged down aggressively in some of the big lows and BUR is my largest holding, often occupying scary percentages of my portfolio. I'll be forever grateful to so many on here - without seeing them draw the same conclusions I have, posting news links and helping clarify things that I didn't understand, I'd probably have questioned if I was hallucinating on this one at times.

[lomax99] 31/3/2023 21:39

I wonder how the idiots at the FT & IT are going to report this?They were still giving oxygen to MW the other week:Https://www.ft.com/content/b3bf8331-2e5c-44c3-ac4a-48a2818b6d01

[1aconic] 31/3/2023 21:16

Yes, Seb Maril also repeated that again Donald. ARG always pays negative judgements eventually. It just tries to delay it as long as possible and negotiate the amount down.

[1aconic] 31/3/2023 21:13

Seb Maril was live on La Nacion news a couple of hours ago discussing the result.


It's at 1450 local time on their clock

For those that don't speak Spanish, a couple of obseravtions are:

He interprets the passage about the parties coming back in 14 days with how they want to proceed to mean that they should try to come to agreement on the date upon which ARG officially took control of YPF so that it can be used for calculations i.e. at that point we should know all the variables to put into the formulae and come up with a specific total for the damages awarded. There won't be a trial to do that.

He says that he expects ARG to appeal but then negotiate. He predicts there'll be a settlement with ARG paying in the region of 500m-1bn per year for ten years.

[donald pond] 31/3/2023 21:09

Robert Capper on Twitter knows his stuff: he is in the enforcement business and sold a previous business to Burford. He thinks it will take time, but they should be able to enforce pretty much the lot against Argentina. They will protest, but they always pay in the end is his view.

[edmondj] 31/3/2023 20:18

Kuvari Partners even raised their short exposure on 29 March:



Originally opened a position around 700p in early 2021.

[donald pond] 31/3/2023 20:13

I make the basic figure a little more, $4.5m, but the key thing is 11 years of interest. At the midpoint of 7%, that puts the claim as worth over $7.5bn
Its a good point to start negotiations from.
And it is going to make the Q1 accounting figures look very, ahem, striking.

[bestace] 31/3/2023 20:00

We do know the number of shares, don't we? Petersen had just over 100 million and Eton Park just under 12 million.

I think some of the calculations above are ignoring costs. Burford have stated that after success fees and other expenses, they expect to retain 58-59% of the gross proceeds for the Petersen claims, out of which they have sold a 38.75% share. The 58-59% figures are a few years old now but let's work with them:

So for Petersen they should receive 58/59% x (1 - 38.75%) = c.36% of the gross proceeds

Eton Park were a 3% shareholding in YPF vs. 25% for the Petersen entities, but Burford retain a 75% interest in the Eton claim, so 3/25 x 75% = 9% of the gross proceeds.

Add the 2 together gives Burford c.45% of the gross proceeds after costs, success fees and secondary sales.

If the operative date is April 2012 then a gross claim value of c.$5.6bn = value to Burford of c.$2.5bn.

An operative date of January 2012 then a gross claim value of c.$9.2bn gives a value to Burford of c.$4.1bn.

Divide by 219m shares in issue gives a value per share to Burford of $11.41 or $18.72 depending on the date.

I think... E&OE etc.

Yes you can add interest on to that but I agree with Donald that they'll look to offload further secondary sales at a discount, and there is still ongoing litigation risk (appeals etc.) and collections risk (non-payment) which warrants a further discount. Also maybe tax? so my implicit and probably simplistic assumption is that all those things will net off against each other.

[sogoesit] 31/3/2023 19:59

Oh really TTToC?

Congratulations .... Lol ;-)

Good to see ya. All well, I hope.

[feuguru] 31/3/2023 19:53

Yes. In at 1.20 a long way back ....

[donald pond] 31/3/2023 19:44

BTW "Happy" on the BUR twitter group has a nice caption showing the price of the shares using the D methodology that Preska recommended would be $88.35-90.79, so if we know how many shares we are claiming for....