Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[gettingrichslow] 05/2/2020 07:35

If you’ve got a mental age of an 8 year old, yes

[hawkind] 05/2/2020 00:13

Thats funny tbf :o)

[stevevcjp] 04/2/2020 20:55

The cash generation revealed yesterday is seriously impressive.

Listened to the conference call. New CFO impressive. Feels like he has had a positive influence on CB and JM effervescence. The Chairman needs to reign in his “unbridledR21;....this is a very high risk business. Nothing unbridled about it. Cool and control and risk management is everything.

I have huge respect for Chimers on here. But this business and this management team are finally showing signs of some maturity.

Having sold at £18.50. I am now long.

[stockvalue] 04/2/2020 19:52

Potentially another win for Burford. The court already argued in Burford's favor.

[callmebwana] 04/2/2020 18:41

O/T.
If any of you guys are interested in investing ideas, we have the Wanobi BB thread on
AAZ (Anglo Asian Mining). A lot of O/T is discussed by us on there.

I am a holder here too.
ATB.

[dudishes] 04/2/2020 18:10

adnan17 - official site shows 1.11% short.

MW, not sure, but I think were about 0.68% @ £15, then later, another firm kicked in. There has been no movement either way for some time, but depends on how accounts are scrutinized I guess?

DYOR eh!

[rar100] 04/2/2020 17:44

hazl

I thought that NCYT would be a short lived thing, but went up at speed, your timing was spot on

I'll look forward to seeing your post and meanwhile I hope that you do well with BUR, it's looking better.....

All best,

rar

[stockvalue] 04/2/2020 16:02

Here you can download the FCA excel file you are looking for.

Be aware of the facts another forum member called WangCai mentioned about a month ago, why you should not place too much weight on these disclosures.

[chimers] 04/2/2020 16:00

I had 1 share but sold it last week, does that count?

[adnan17] 04/2/2020 15:51

Can anyone put a list of the short positions still outstanding.

[dudishes] 04/2/2020 14:19

Maddox, apart from Mw, and one other, and according to shorting list, we are all out and about elsewhere!

[maddox] 04/2/2020 14:16

BTW chaps - how are your short positions looking?

[maddox] 04/2/2020 14:15

Hi dgdg,

Your question I've paraphrased 'why should we not be concerned with the lack of H2 profit?'

There is a misconception that a random pattern is evenly spaced and of even density. This is not correct a random pattern exhibits clusters and blotches - which is what we are seeing with the resolution of Burford's cases: Few resolutions in July to December then a bunch in January after the year-end.

"January 2020 seeing litigation successes that would trigger unrealised gains and, if ultimately affirmed and paid, would generate more than $150 million in profits across the Group and more than $100 million in balance sheet profits from a single month's activity. Had January's events occurred in December, Burford's 2019 results would have been materially higher as Burford would have been obliged to take a meaningful portion of those future expected profits into income immediately."

Burford are scaling up the volume and value of their investments quite dramatically, but the 'timing issue', the unpredictability of case resolution, will remain. We can thus expect that the P&L will continue to be lumpy no matter how many cases are in the portfolio.

Another reason we should be less concerned about this unpredictability is that cases that run longer are likely to go forward to court adjudication. Whilst they take longer the returns from adjudicated cases are far higher.

As Chris Bogart explained on the Update Call "(the unpredictability of cash flow) we think that this is a big plus for the business and that we wouldn't wish to trade that any day for a business that had predictable cyclical returns".

Basically, it's the nature of the business - if court cases were predictable in outcome, value and timing - you wouldn't need Burford - you could go and get a loan from a bank to fund a legal case.

Regards, Maddox

[hazl] 04/2/2020 13:57

NCYT is a tricky one because it is dependent on timing.
We hope the virus will be short lived,but the rise is directly connected to the threat.
If the threat diminishes the share price might too,though it has other things going for it .
Short term that will be the perception.

IMO

Edit I no longer hold ncyt .
though that could change in future.

[hazl] 04/2/2020 13:52

rar thanks for the vote of confidence.
Looks like this one will be ok now.

I often post my buys on another thread will get back to you.

[biteherbutt] 04/2/2020 13:29

interesting move higher

[dudishes] 04/2/2020 13:20

I thought MD may close around £7 mark, seems hanging on for 70p! As for Court intervention, no chance in UK, another waste of money.

[williamcooper104] 04/2/2020 11:04

Which validates their prior year gains but again shows that PE is the wrong metic to look at

[sogoesit] 04/2/2020 10:39

Not to forget that they will be adding to the balance sheet during the coming year for added risk investment.
(Debt as indicated:
"Burford did not raise any external capital during 2019, although the Company does currently intend to return to the primary debt markets in 2020 to continue to fund its ongoing growth.")

[winsome] 04/2/2020 10:36

tongosti, Let's hope you are right. Seems they settled few cases in HY19 but they will all settle eventually, enhancing future years' revenue. The key things to look at are investment commitments and loss ratio. These are both looking excellent and I expect confirmation from detailed FY report which I expect will be in a different format to dispel doubters.

As long as the loss ratio remains low, there is very little risk to continuing unrealised gains and fair value movements. Even if loss ratio trebled to a measly 3% it would still have little impact. But I must admit I'd rather see a different accounting method used. Most of the cash coming in this year is to cover previous years' reported profit. Otherwise, we'd be looking at bumper profits this year.