Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[rar100] 04/2/2020 10:30

hazl,

I tried to buy NCYT through Interactive Investor and for some reason they said couldn't do it (I've been too busy to find out why).

I would be interested to know what other stocks you have your eye on.

yes, it's good to see the share price in Bur going up for a change, 2 days in a row!!!

I'm a little less poor...

All best, rar

[tongostl] 04/2/2020 09:20

I'm in, started buying now. This is significantly undervalued. The outlook for this new financial year is going to be exceptional. There's at least a 100% increase coming in 12 months, 10 bag in 5 years.

[hazl] 04/2/2020 08:13

What a difference.

[dongkingkong] 04/2/2020 07:14

Mr Kong the Mid Level HK Snakehead is shorting till 257p.

Hope this helps.

Regards,
Mr Kong

[cokehookerscars] 04/2/2020 06:56

Hi George, what is disasterous about it ?
I am keen to learn from the best.

Also, could you please provide your numbers & workings out for determining that the company is worth 200 pence ?
I appreciate you are busy but I hope you can provide me the detail.
Cheers.

[nobilis] 04/2/2020 06:48

“Net realised gains”

hxxps://cube.investments/cube-midcap-report-7-aug-2019-bur/

This section of the short dossier, beginning on page 15, is the most important part for me. If what it says is true, then the portion of Burford’s returns which are derived from fair value movements are much higher than what the numbers appear to suggest at first glance.

I will explain it as simply as I can.

Suppose we invest $100 in a case. We then mark it up to $120, recording a fair value movement of $20 for the period.

Now suppose that in a later period, we sell the case for $150. How should we account for what has happened in this later period?

Investment income includes net realised gains on investments and fair value movement on investments.

Intuitively, most people would think that in the later period, we record a $30 net realised gain on investments, since we sold the case for $30 more than its carrying value. That’s not how Burford does it, according to MW.

Instead, if we are Burford, we record a $50 net realised gain on investments, and record minus $20 in fair value movements.

As you can see, by doing it this way, we get a much higher net realised gain, and a much lower fair value movement.

Do this with a big portfolio of cases and the net realised gain every period will be much larger, and the fair value movement much lower, than what would make sense intuitively to the ordinary person.

[nobilis] 04/2/2020 06:45

Yesterdays statement unaudited


Worth diddly

[cruxador] 03/2/2020 23:59

Here is an interesting view on the BUR case by Graham Neary. I like his conclusion and it's food for thought.

[luckymouse] 03/2/2020 23:06

Chimers3 Feb '20 - 21:43 - 15798 of 15798 (Filtered)

Aah that's better - faux bickering

[chimers] 03/2/2020 21:43

Sniff..................

[chimers] 03/2/2020 21:11

CORRECT^^^

[mad foetus] 03/2/2020 21:05

I see on stocko that Graham Neary, who is a cautious chap, is getting interested in BUR. he wants to see the next results but the fact that BUR is on the radar of value investors is quite amazing

[gettingrichslow] 03/2/2020 21:01

That complete bell-end called Chimers tried to claim earlier that he only said BUR will be stuck at 830p for 6 months. Here is his actual post - clearly says for a year - surprise, surprise he lied again!

Chimers - 12 Aug 2019 08:30:48 9655 of 9840 BURFORD CAPITAL :::::::::::::::::::::::::: Litigation Funding - BUR I always post a marker in every single prediction I make online whether its a buy or sell. Right now Bur is what £8.30 mid. In a years time it will still be around £8.30 mid. Thats it. It's over. Trust has gone ......FOREVER. The share price is closer to fair value. In future, everyone will look at this "FORENSICALLY" And it will be covered in small circular bruises the size of a 50p piece where the BARGEPOLE has been poking it. Its going to go to sleep in this range.

[djderry] 03/2/2020 20:23

dgdg1,for me,it was never going to be about six or twelve month figures.For many companies,and in particular for Burford,it makes little sense.Yes,as the company grows alongside its asset management business,there should be some 'smoothing' out,but I wouldn't bet on it.What matters most is how the overall portfolio is doing.From what I can gather,it's performing superbly.How do I know? Well,it's not a perfect benchmark,but,up to now,committed capital has been a lead indicator ,taking into account the commentary from the company on this.Secondly,the quality of the portfolio is indicated by the extremely low level of losses,again taking into account that this will occilate.I've learned that,sometimes,it's only in year 5,6 or 7 that I make really big returns on some of my portfolio.

[lomax99] 03/2/2020 20:13

'If the litigation finance provider does continue to grow throughout 2020, the stock could offer a wide margin of safety at current levels. Historically, the shares have commanded a valuation of more than 20 times earnings. That suggests they could be undervalued by as much as 75%. Also, the shares support a dividend yield of 1.6%.'Https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2020/02/03/the-burford-capital-share-price-heres-what-id-do-now/

[williamcooper104] 03/2/2020 19:36

Although of course Bur can't have a profit warning warning because, IIRC, they give no forward guidance on profits, which is sensible, but equally discredits PE

[williamcooper104] 03/2/2020 18:23

It's a very well performing investment trust and ought to be trading at a premium to NAV - NAV was 650p - likely to now be higher - say, at a guess 750p - so a share price of 800-950p seems reasonable You need to be super confident about predictability or predictable cyclicality of income to value it on a high PE basis On an earnings basis the press release is a profit warning But still all good signs as regards overall business - so the profit warning doesn't bother me - and if the share price is based on NAV then ought not to tank the sp

[trident5] 03/2/2020 18:08

Dgdg - yes, ignoring completely the content of MW's report, he seemed to have timed it to coincide exactly with the moment B. ceased making profits.

[dgdg1] 03/2/2020 17:31

Djderry, I am a long term bull on Burford. I am a bit concerned though about the lack of profits in H2. Now of course I understand that you can't control when court decisions are delivered etc. But you also have to bear in mind that Burford are not just dealing with three or four cases - they are dealing with a large number of cases. So you would still expect that over a large number of cases the inherent randomness of timing would to an extent sort itself out and there should have been a decent number of court decisions or settlements over 6 months, and on average this should have produced a profit. I am interested to know why this point doesn't bother you at all? Thanks