And if you've got the time to spare, Seb has just posted this :
🔴If you’re interested in a good podcast about the litigation risk that Argentina is facing, I’m sharing a podcast published this Friday by the lawyers currently suing Argentina in: (1) Euro GDP Warrants, (2) Attestor Master, and (3) Province of Buenos Aires defaulted debt case.
GLA |
I believe the hunt is nearly over. It may well be towards the back end of 2025 when we are rewarded. Not long now, particularly if you have been invested here a long time. |
You can turn around a country's economic fortunes if you are radical enough (though it takes time), you can even change the culture of a country if you try hard enough (look at our lot) but if you want voluminous capital flows through your country then you have to be welcomed back into the pack. Patience guys, 2025 is just days away. |
Worth listening to : Milei interviewed by The Spectator.
45 mins, but well worth it, IMO.
Milei presents well, not as some kind of academic nut-job, but very human in his excitement at meeting Sylvester Stallone (alongside Trump and Musk) and his fanboy enthusiasm for the Rolling Stones, the Beatles, Byron, Shakespeare (alongside Thatcher) etc.
Discusses pragmatically amongst other things : Trump's tariffs; the Malvinas; and his discovery that China is presenting as a good, respectful partner.
He'll fight Argentina's corner- but cleanly- was the clear impression I got.
IMO, DYOR, etc etc
GLA and ATB |
How can this post possibly deserve a thumbs down? Good link, thanks for sharing. |
htTps://www.geradinpartners.com/dr-or-brook-to-file-multi-billion-pound-damages-action-against-google-on-behalf-of-uk-search-advertisers/ |
Paying a billion a year for the next 20 years would be fine by me!! |
 Seb's observation
hxxps://lanacion.com.ar/economia/la-corte-del-distrito-de-columbia-dejo-firme-la-sentencia-que-ordena-al-pais-pagar-us390-millones-nid11122024/
A court in the District of Columbia has ordered the Republic of Argentina to pay $390.9 million to Titan Consortium for the expropriation of Aerolíneas Argentinas.
The original expropriation/nationalisation was handiwork of Kicillof, who now objects to its re-privatisation :
hxxps://www.ambito.com/politica/el-gobierno-le-respondio-axel-kicillof-aerolineas-argentinas-la-expropiaron-y-la-quebraron-
.."The government of Javier Milei mocked the Buenos Aires governor, Axel Kicillof, after he announced his proposal for the Province to take control of Aerolíneas Argentinas. "They expropriated it and bankrupted it," Casa Rosada stated, ......noting that "they turned it into a militant employment box."
This prompts Seb to remark
- The Government speaks and gives its opinion on everything, except the court cases.
- Wall Street writes and analyzes everything about Argentina, except the court cases.
- The IMF advises and makes projections on everything except lawsuits.
- Rating agencies raise the country's rating citing an improvement in its ability to pay, but they forget about the lawsuits.
- Multinationals, when making investments, ask about everything except what the lawsuits and attitude to the rule of law represent.
- It's USD 30 billion (USD 18 billion with a final judgment) that everyone is ignoring. A tsunami about to break.
GLA |
Ashmore latest :
.."Argentina: The central bank cut policy rates by 300bps to 32%. The decision goes AGAINST the IMF recommendation to bring interest rates to positive level in real terms. CPI inflation dropped to 2.8% mom in November, an annualised rate of c. 39%. President Javier Milei approval rating rose to 47% in November,* from 43% in October driven by declining inflation and rising real wages.."
* Starmer, eat your heart out. Better still, take note.
Also : Highest November vehicle sales in 6 years...
Still moving in the right direction, AFAICS.
GLA |
Grateful if whoever is downticking what is mostly factual information without providing a reason either have the cojones to share said reason (so we can have an adult exchange of views) or - failing that - to at least identify themselves so that I can filter as a waste of space.
TIA |
If confirmed this is extremely positive. |
Ref yesterday's Mr Marroc post, this just in from Seb
.."🛑Second media outlet/research firm that confirms ongoing negotiations between Argentina and GDP Warrants judgment creditors.
First was Argentina’s TN, now Octus (formerly Reorg).
Everything points to the execution of the EUR 313 million guarantee and the subsequent payment of some EUR 1.3 billion.
I haven’t been able to verify it in spite of my numerous calls to the government...
ATB |
Ashmore 2025 Emerging Market outlook.
Argentina :
Argentina: Policymakers have made extraordinary progress in 2024, with a fiscal adjustment and de-regulation efforts that have surpassed expectations.
President Javier Milei’s ‘economic shock therapy’ and crawling peg FX system gradually brought sky-high inflation under control in 2024, even though managed prices surged as subsidies were dashed.
Consumer confidence and economic activity are picking up again. With a significant share of the austerity-driven pain now in the rear-view mirror, most analysts are forecasting a rebound in export investment and economic growth of around 4% in 2025.
The next big step will be the gradual removal of capital controls in 2025, without restoking inflation and sparking big outflows.
If Economy Minister Luis Caputo and his team can pull this off, it would be a major milestone and mark a new paradigm for Argentina as an investment destination.
Argentina will also go to legislative elections in October 2025, which will be a crucial opportunity for Milei’s party to increase its paltry presence in Congress."
Quite encouraging!
GLA |
Most interesting,thanks extrader. |
Pragmatic Milei...
hxxps://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/argentina-seeks-its-first-wheat-shipments-to-china-in-decades.phtml
Sporadic rains over the last few months fell just in time to keep plants in good condition, spurring improved yields, said Gabriel Abregos, an estimates analyst at the Bahia Blanca bourse. The US Department of Agriculture expects a national Argentine wheat crop of 17.5 million tons, up from 15.9 million last season.
China’s potential as a market for Argentine wheat may increase if Trump’s vow to slap tariffs on imports sparks a full-on trade war with retaliatory levies imposed by Beijing.
“Brazil took advantage of Trump’s first trade war, boosting its endeavour to be an agricultural force,” Idigoras said in an interview. “We need to know what a second trade war would look like — long, short, multi-destination, multi-product? — to see who could seize the opportunity this time around.”
It's an ill wind (or raincloud)...
GLA |
I'm unsure of many things but very clear that Javier is not woke! |
Starting to produce more oil from Argentina the country with huge reserves to be tapped let's hope MeliIs not so woke as our lot |
Ashmore's latest
Argentina
In an interview, Luis `Toto` Caputo revealed that Argentina is planning to remove capital controls in 2025. Argentina still has a backlog of imports and relatively small foreign exchange reserve basis.
To liberalise capital flows the country is negotiating a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which includes securing additional funds.
According to Caputo, the ongoing discussion centres around the quantity of money to be provided.
Despite persistent political drama, Argentina continues to make progress on fiscal consolidation and achieved a budget surplus in the first 10-months of the year. Notably, wages are now growing faster than inflation, as month-on-month inflation has declined to an annualized rate of 42%, a significant drop from its peak of approximately 280%.
This improvement not only boosts Javier Milei’s popularity but also signals a potential rightward shift in political sentiment across Latin America.
GLA |
Hi all,
A couple of articles on China's recent USD bond issue that could eventually come into play in Argentina :
hxxps://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1859446480198828360
Arnaud Bertrand on X: "The story around China issuing USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia is generating an enormous amount of buzz in China, and could potentially be immensely important. I strongly suspect it's a message to the upcoming Trump administration. Let me explain what seems to" / X
and
hxxps://indi.ca/how-china-starts-printing-usd/
The BTL comments show some of the implications.
The potential end of USD hegemony...
GLA and ATB |
With Trump in goal oil would be a good investment |
You are well ahead on this well done share price moving. |
Good news in the offing I think burford going into the oil business via YPF shares grant |
Register for real-time alerts, custom portfolio, and market movers
Hot Features
Premium
