Once Trump gets his feet under the table the markets will wake up to the fact that Trump is going to help Millei reform Argentina, but will also insist on the proper resolution of past misdemeanours, which will include this legal settlement. Burford will be back over £15 within 2 years. |
(From Seb on Twitter) Brief opinion:1. Did we know that the White House would issue an opinion on the transfer of YPF shares as a form of payment on Nov 6? Yes, it was announced on Sep 6.2. Did we know that the White House would favor the Argentine Republic? Yes, it was expected. Check my posts since Sep.3. Is this decision about the $16.1 billion judgment, the alter ego, or the appeal? No, it is exclusively about the transfer of shares as a form of payment because Argentina did not deposit a bond to appeal on Jan 30. |
Lowest i got was at 820Altho i have to admit was starting to sweat |
Spot on explanation. Been a great few days on the market made even better by the gift from the gods to buy more under £9 |
I agree, but that being so, it was reckless of Burford to apply for the turnover; they should have thought ahead to the read across when it's refused. At the time, I really couldn't work out how a handover of ypf shares would work anyway - far too easy to circumvent. |
I think this is a massive overreaction - certainly at -25% but even now at -10% as I write.
I don't think anyone following the case closely can really have expected Burford to get hold of YPF's shares. The shares barely moved when the turnover motion was filed and CB himself guided just a few weeks ago that the US may take the position that the turnover motion "goes too far". The turnover motion was/is just one aspect of a multi-faceted enforcement strategy all of which is designed to irritate Argentina to the point of getting them to the table to settle. The shares have reacted as if this is a significant negative legal development - not helped as ever by misleading headlines stating that "US sides with Argentina in dispute over $16bn YPF judgement" - when the reality is that nothing has really changed... |
You might get your chance! |
No but I wish I had added at low 8's. Some have people have made some good money. |
It's politics alright. Burford eventually will get a payout but the news has crashed the SP |
Added to which that is an opinion from a Biden/Harris DoJ. A Trump DoJ in January may well take a different view. |
I don't read it like that at all. It was always a long shot trying to get Preska to force Argentina to hand over shares for a company in their own country. I saw it as more of a nuisance rather than something they expected to win.
I assume the DOJ is worried about precedents that might be set.
This is separate to the issue of whether Argentina owe the $16bn. |
Ho hum - Chris Bogart is going to have to earn his $m’s on today’s Q3 call.. |
It's a huge statement though that US judgements against foreign states have no extra territorial reach. Quite the change |
In a way not surprising they want to look to be on Argentinian on side. This is not saying money has gone just wait a while longer which is nothing new I guess.Judge P may comply, even if she did enforce they can still keep going down road with the can. Update against tough LFL later. |
I wish BUR would become a normal company and not a soap opera. |
wow - even cynical me did not expect this outreach |
Thanks Extrader.Perhaps if you hear any of Seb's tweets,you might post them up.
On first consideration, this seems to strengthen Argentina's case.It seems to me to back up their original position that they are immune from outside interference. Have I missed something? Burford's case,which they have already won,is that,as these were commercial matters,no sovereign immunity exits,all the more so as shares were sold on the NYSE,under NYSE rules to US and other investors.
Where does this leave us? |
This, per Seb.
🔴The Statement of Interest that the U.S. Government will file today through the Department of Justice in the case YPF expropriation case will reflect an opinion from the Biden/Harris White House. Donald Trump does not assume office until January 20.
Judge Preska’s ruling on the turnover motions is expected before the end of the year.
I wonder how definitive that suggested timeline is.
GLA |
US futures up 2%. Like him or not he has been given a strong mandate by the US people, well enough of what he needs. He could speed up dollarisation of Argentina as it looks like he will hold all houses. Let's see what happens next. |
My thanks to you for the extra 'colour' ! |
Most interesting, thank you for posting Extrader.Of course the hard yards were done by Burford,winning the original award/ decision.They sold on the award to the Titan Consortium for a little over $100 million,if I remember correctly,investing the proceeds in further cases and diversifying the overall portfolio. |
From seb, an hour ago
🔴The Republic of Argentina and Titan Consortium have entered discussions on potentially agreeing to the entry of judgment on mutually acceptable terms, according to court documents filed on Monday.
- This does not mean that Argentina will settle the case or will start negotiation talks for a potential settlement.
- However, just a few weeks ago, the Republic opposed to the very same judgment that it is now agreeing to enter with beneficiaries of a $325 million award.
First crack in the ice...?
GLA |
 Delayed resolution of the Congo arbitration. May still get resolved in the coming days before the hearing in Paris on Nov 14th.
Sundance Resources Ltd (“SundanceR21; or “Company”;) wishes to provide an update regarding the
proceedings between Sundance and the Republic of Congo (“Congo”).
On 1 July 2024 the Company announced the execution of a binding but confidential and conditional
settlement agreement (“Conditional Settlement”) between Sundance, Sundance’s subsidiary
Congo Iron SA and Congo (“the Parties”), which was meant to settle the ongoing and previously
announced dispute between the Parties before the International Court of Arbitration of the ICC
(“ICC”). If successful, the Conditional Settlement was intended to occur by no later than 30
September 2024.
The cash funds, as required by the Conditional Settlement, were not received by the deadline and
as announced by Sundance on 30 September 2024, it was agreed that the end date of the
Conditional Settlement be extended to 31 October 2024.
Even though there appears to have been progress by Congo with regards to raising the required
funds to achieve the Conditional Settlement, the funds to date have not been received by Sundance.
The Conditional Settlement has now been terminated. The Congo arbitration before the ICC will
continue undisturbed, as previously flagged by Sundance, and the hearing will go ahead as
scheduled on 14 November 2024 in Paris.
Sundance remains open to achieving a settlement with Congo in short order for the benefit of all
parties.
The settlement discussions with Congo were independent of, and had no effect on, the Company’s
ICC arbitration against the Republic of Cameroon. |
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