 Nothing from Seb, but 2 x snippets from the btl comments :
(1) it looks as though there's been good rainfall in the provinces, folk are expecting record harvests of wheat and soy;
(2) there've apparently been legislative changes to strip the 'casta' [political appointees famed for their venality/corruption] of its customs authority...
..By Resolution 5586/24 of @FMisrahiAlmaraz of the former @AFIPcomunica dependent on @MinEconomia_Ar of @LuisCaputoAR , one of the most emblematic Customs circulars of the economic control that the castes exercised over the country's economic policy was eliminated.
Thus, circulars 701/99 and 799/2000, which required the need for a national industry supervisor to release a container in the red channel when goods from that sector were imported, are repealed.
How to put it: if you wanted to import footwear, a footwear industry supervisor had to give his opinion; if you wanted to import pipes for the oil sector, a representative of the national steel industry had to give his opinion... there were even lists of people with names and surnames authorized for this purpose.
With its repeal we are removing a symbol of the caste that the president @JMilei came to banish.
We would particularly like to thank @eduardomallea2 who worked tirelessly over the past few months to make this resolution a reality.
'Every little helps'
GLA and ATB |
Special Report by the FT today: Investing in Argentina.
Nothing on litigations. That will come on a separate article soon. |
Seb tweets
Argentina currently has frozen collateral for Brady bonds that matured in March 2023 in accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in NY, Switzerland and Germany. The beneficiaries of the ruling, led by Attestor Master, are asking that these sovereign assets be transferred to an account at a financial institution to be defined while the US Supreme Court reviews the ruling that froze the assets.
Meanwhile, another fund, the Bainbridge Fund, claims to have priority over those assets and is asking the Court of Appeals to grant Attestor's request for the frozen Brady collateral to become its property.
It is striking that no Argentine government, Wall Street investment bank or the IMF itself is aware of the similar problem that is looming over us, as they have not had the curiosity to at least analyse the alarming level of legal liabilities that we currently have as a country.
GLA |
Seb tweets
With the economic team in Washington this week, I do not rule out that the payment of the sentence for the GDP coupons in London, without harming the minimum reserve levels agreed with the IMF, will be a topic of discussion with the Fund.
GLA |
Perhaps if anyone has access to the Law360 website they could expand on the story from last week re Burford subsidiary and Sysco.Law360 reporting that the Illinois federal judge again refused the Bur LLC to unbind itself from the global agreement which Sysco wanted to do,although they had assigned some of their rights to their suppliers/ customers. |
As Burford procedure lead I am expecting RNS with Notice of results on Friday 1st November. With 3Q24 results on Thursday 7th November. Unless someone knows for certain |
There is a story here that parties who had previously bought from Burford percentages of the YPF case are now offering to local Argentine companies the opportunity to buy sub.parts. The price seems to be 17% of the total amount recovered in NY.
Long article. The first paras:
"Los procesos judiciales contra el país tienen un mercado aparte. Parte de la demanda fue cedida por Burford a "inversores" que a su vez ofrecen ahora el 30% de su tenencia
Fondos de inversión locales estuvieron recibiendo en las últimas jornadas ofertas para participar del juicio contra la Argentina por la expropiación de YPF dispuesta por el gobierno de Cristina Kirchner y de la mano de Axel Kicillof. El precio: 17% del valor técnico que hoy oscila por encima de los u$s 17 mil millones.
Burford Capital cedió a terceros una parte del juicio que encabeza en Nueva York contra el país, los que a su vez están ofreciendo en la plaza local revender un porcentaje de esa demanda."
Google Translate:
"The legal proceedings against the country have a separate market. Part of the lawsuit was ceded by Burford to "investors" who in turn are now offering 30% of their holdings
Local investment funds have been receiving offers in recent days to participate in the lawsuit against Argentina for the expropriation of YPF ordered by the government of Cristina Kirchner and the hand of Axel Kicillof. The price: 17% of the technical value that today oscillates above US$ 17 billion.
Burford Capital ceded to third parties a part of the lawsuit that it is leading in New York against the country, who in turn are offering to resell a percentage of that lawsuit in the local market." |
Not that slowly...!
GGAL and YPF ADRs both traded at abt USD 10 12 months ago.
Laggard YPF is currently close to USD 25, finance conglomerate GGAL is ca. USD 50...
Both tipped at the time by Jared Dillian, a Marmite pundit that I follow
;->
NAI, DYOR, etc etc
GLA |
Seb"Stay tuned to the Financial Times. Argentina is starting to attract interest. It's not long now." Money (dollars and companies) in means money can come out. share price Responding slowly. |
The investment bank JP Morgan today incorporated Argentina into the EMBIGD index, which reaches the "emerging" countries, from the "borders", which constitutes a boost to Treasury debt bonds and shares of companies listed in The New York Stocks.Small piece from Sebs followers. Seb saying watch out news incoming from Financial T. |
And Seb also posting that the YPF/Petersen case has accrued a billion dollars in post judgement interest. |
Should be multiples of the share price on just the one case |
Good LinkedIn opinion column about Argentina's past mistakes, including the YPF case.
hxxps://www.linkedin.com/pulse/we-were-wrong-sebastian-maril-h5auf/?trackingId=AsW157PbTDeeSMFzwyXHuA%3D%3D |
It looks like it's coming to a final position step by step in 25. SP. Is starting to recover ahead of Q3. If Milei gets dollarisation then it will be easier to settle. At last I hear you say. |
Bloomberg) -- Argentina lost a bid at the UK Supreme Court to hear its appeal on a ruling that would force the South American nation to pay $1.5 billion in damages to holders of the country's growth-linked bonds. In an order signed Monday, the UK's top court refused to hear an appeal over payments to hedge funds including Palladian Partners LP. The holders of those notes argued the losses were a result of a change by a previous Argentine government in how it calculated gross domestic product.The court's decision puts pressure on the country's buffer of foreign currency reserves, money that Argentina needs for bond payments and to eventually lift capital controls. Lawyers for Argentina argued in May that it would struggle to service some of its debt if it had to pay damages stemming from the GDP-linked bonds.UK courts established Argentina now has 45 days to pay the GDP bondholders. The Milei administration would be subject to enforcement action if it misses that deadline and it would also lose $334 million already paid to UK authorities."During the course of this case, Argentina has repeatedly said to the court that if a final decision is made in favor of the warrant holders that the money to pay its creditors will need to be found," said Aidan O'Rourke, partner at Quinn Emanuel acting for the hedge funds. "That time has now come."President Javier Milei's administration needs to make some $9.45 billion in hard-currency bond payments in 2025, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While there's consensus among Wall Street analysts about the country's willingness to pay, funding sources remain tight.Milei's finance secretary Pablo Quirno last week said that monetary authorities were working on a repurchase loan agreement, or repo, to secure some cash ahead of its next debt payment in January.Lawyers for Argentina declined to comment. A spokesperson for the Milei administration didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. |
Incredible admission !! |
Milei tweeting about the "illegal expropriation of YPF". Rather undermines the legal case... |
IKBR very good but no advice intended …….just go to Copilot or GPT and phrase your question or follow up questions….you should get links to comparison sites and I don’t mean compare the meerkat.com |
Trading .... Can I ask? What platform do you use for trading? I think the people in this board are on the more discerning side of the investment spectrum and I would be interested to know who you feel are appropriate companies to use. Long, non-derivative on the stock side, with good access to liquid government bond markets is a plus.Thank you. |
Thanks a lot for taking the time to write this very informative answer, much appreciated. |
Sundance Resources (Oz), Congo-Brazzaville, awaiting compromise settlement, quantum unknown.
Sundance is delisted, but may be tradeable on grey market...
NAI, DYOR etc etc |
Let just the interest cumulate.
Something else, I have written on the other board also. If you can tell me some stock connected to the field of litigation, arbitration cases, and can br bought on any stock exchange pls let me know. I have already have some knowledge of the cases vs Venezuela, and CITGO auction, know Greenx, miners against Tanzania (IND, MON), and rhe one not far from the starting point but due to that still at exteremely low levels rel to potential claim (PAT). Someone recommended greenland resources altough I could find enough info of that . Do you know others, especially with strong litigation finance background (egz Burford or LCM) ? |
Would be kind if someone could summarise what to expect from the appeal. so the judge goes over all the already discovered material and i guess Argentina will try and bring new material and try other arguments to get the judgement overturned? And Bur will defend/ also try and bring new material to the case? Why does it take so long to kick off? Thanks in advance |
A decision in the YPF appeal will not be released until late 2Q25. Hearings have not been scheduled yet. |
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