I think Argentina are waiting for the outcome of the Appeal which hasn't taken place yet. |
I think it's much more likely that LIT will get the money out of Poland than BUR will get anything at all from Argentina.... At least today's share movements seem to show that the market believes that. |
it seems the current argentinian government keeps on with the same strategy as the previous peronist government: delaying trials/arbitrages/payments.
Yesterday it was released that an argentinian court has blocked the international arbitration bought by Abertis, a spanish company that was running toll motorways in Argentina and whose contracts were unilaterally voided by the government:
"A National Court of Argentina, at the request of the Government of Javier Milei, has suspended the arbitration initiated by Abertis against the State of Argentina before the Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce for disputes related to the continuity of the concession contract of its two highways in that country, valued at 750 million euros." |
From Seb I find it very difficult to understand why the Government does not realize how quickly the night is coming on the issue of international trials. Kicking the ball is costing us dearly (money and reputation). Yesterday, three very bad news. Soon the most annoying of all this year is coming: PBI London Coupon. Then YPF. Respecting the Rule of Law is one of the pillars to show the world that we have changed and that we are a serious country. But we are not doing it. Let's hope sooner rather than later 4 weeks to US election |
It's a falling chart it's on a support level. If it breaks below then the next support is at 9.06 from July 23. We can just hope they have won significantly more cases in last 3 months than Q3 LY. Up against Q3 368m with Q4 292m. It could be painful until Q1 LFL next year when figures very soft. With all the investment at some stage this has to pay back, maybe it won't but it should. YPF as ever keeps getting kicked down the road |
Down ~25% from the previous results, I think it would merit an update, or something to hang your hat on (or are we to expect another quarter of rubbish cash flow; hope not). Otherwise, it's just a plaything for the shorts, and blows on the wind with sentiment on YPF, deterring investors in the process. |
 Seb's latest updates :
"Aurelius Capital and 13 other holders of dollar-denominated GDP-Linked Warrants on Wednesday filed a new complaint following this year’s judgment in favor of the Republic dismissing their claims without ruling on the merits. With this new lawsuit, Aurelius and the other Warrant holders claim that since the dismissal of the prior actions, filed between 2019 and 2020, they have complied with the “No-Action Clause” and are now seeking to recover a $1.3 billion payment with respect to the GDP Securities for Reference Year 2013..."
followed by
"Next week marks the beginning of October, when we will hear the ruling from the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom (UKSC) in the case of the GDP-linked Warrants. At stake are:
1. A Letter of Credit for $345 million issued by Santander in favor of the Bank of New York, which will be automatically executable with the UKSC ruling or with an order from the Court of Appeals. This LOC was pledged by Argentina as a condition for the appeal.
2. The payment of $1.1 billion plus interest to judgment creditors..."
It's all happening.....
GLA |
GrowCFO, Episode 202 How Does Corporate Legal Finance Work? with Jordan Licht, CFO, Burford Capital |
Ashmore latest
..Argentina: Last week, Argentine President Javier Milei announced the 2025 budget on television. The punchline is that still, “no hay plata” (“there is no money”). Milei outlined his intention to “shackle the state” and launched a fierce attack on opposition lawmakers, whom he described as “miserable rats” betting against the country.
His budget is ambitious,including significant public service cuts and targeting a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP. The budget forecasts a dramatic economic turnaround with 5% GDP growth and inflation at 18% in in 2025, a stark contrast to the current projections of a 3.8% GDP contraction and 123% inflation for the same year. Inflation is currently running at 4.2% month-on-month, translating to an annualised rate of around 64% year-on-year. Milei also called on provincial administrations to implement an additional USD 60bn in spending cuts. He stated that any excess revenues compared with the budget’s projections would be used to lower taxes.
GLA |
Another article from 'Seeking Alpha': |
Seb on form...
With the arrival of President Milei, Argentina has put the country on a path that many of us applaud. However, there are specific issues, such as trials abroad, where Argentina continues to make mistakes despite this change.
Last night:
“As this Court (Second Circuit Court of Appeals) has noted, through Argentina's relentless attempts to evade its financial commitments, the country has made many contributions to foreign insolvency law and has pioneered default diplomacy.”
GLA |
That's another significant hire,Travis Lenkner was one of the three principals of Gerchen Keller Capital. |
TNT99,When do you think the share price will reach £20.Q3 2025 perhaps ? |
Still waiting for this to reach at least 20 quid after all the YPF court win is around 3 times the present market cap And at least the Argentina economy is now growing!! |
A slew of appointments announced that were made recently as Burford celebrates its 15th anniversary.Of note is the Special Counsel,advising on the enforcement of judgements in New York,with particular focus on the YPF matter. |
reading what is going on i got a feeling the ypf case will not be sold on. it will be dealt with in house which will probably result in better total return |
I think everyone should appreciate the value of time with regards to Milei.
When you inherit an extremely bad financial situation with negative cash flow and the therapy is painful; the order in which you try to unravel the mess and improve the fortunes of your country (or whatever) is vital to your chances of success.
In this case he decided the problems at home needed addressing immediately and have had his full attention, leaving YPF (and all sovereign debt issues) on the back burner as his best option. For one thing if the country is on a better financial footing, they will be in a much better position to negotiate further investment.
He could have tried to argue his country was broke to negotiate the biggest debt writeoff but I think he would rather fix everything and pay the debts as he said. |
I've never been very keen on the turnover motion because if BUR wins and ARG refuses to turn over the shares how can the US courts sensibly respond to the breach of the court order? And if BUR wins and (hypothetically) ARG turns over the shares, what move will ARG then make -- I'd imagine revoking licences, taxing profits at 99% or similar leaving BUR with nothing worth having or capable of sale. So the turnover motion has always seemed to me to be about hassling ARG into coming to the table.
The DOJ's decision to consider whether to intervene presumably reflects ARG lobbying which, in turn, must reflect an ARG belief that they are otherwise (at least quite) likely to lose the turnover application. As a Judge I'd be a bit frustrated at the state coming in so late in the process, only indicating that it was considering intervening (rather than applying to actually intervene), and requesting 2 months to come to a conclusion. In her shoes I'd nevertheless accede to the request (don't want the Courts and State in major tension), but would press on with the alter ego applications (where there's no problem with international comity - if the aircraft or the bank account is in the US, the Court can order its seizure). From BUR's perspective, keeping the turnover motion in suspense is no bad thing (given that its purpose, in my view, is simply to hassle ARG, rather than to take delivery of the shares).
In terms of getting ARG to the table, we await the ruling from the Court of Appeals. Whilst ARG has presumably been advised that the prospects of success are very low (evidenced by Milei's statements earlier in his Presidency), the opposition seem unwilling to acquiesce in a settlement whilst there remains a prospect of overturning the main judgment. |
maddox ... i witnessed steering of private companies to their harm by the government for the state interests many times. thinking otherwise is lack of on hand experience/knowledge.
it is just not said and written.
when i was naive i expected compensations in kind. no. if protesting one gets punished for real.
and i am not talking about us... but am expecting similar
size needed to get in touch with reality |
Helpful. Thanks |
I think that this DOJ intervention is being overinterpreted. The US has laws protecting other nations sovereign assets (embassy buildings etc) from legal seizure. Burford contends that Argentina's YPF shares are a commercial asset not sovereign and thus up for grabs. The DOJ probably wants to ensure that a ruling by Judge Preska doesn't pierce the sovereign protection afforded to foreign governments. This would clearly be highly detrimental to US interests.
The DOJ doesn't act as an arm of the Dept of State pursuing foreign policy objectives.
'The mission of the Department of Justice is to uphold the rule of law, to keep our country safe, and to protect civil rights.' |
So, by Nov 6 the US government may file a statement of interest in the case. I wonder what the interest will be? Feels like a big move so must have been confident the turnover motion would be granted and that must be problematic.
One comment in response to Sebs post suggested it’s not in the interest of the US for its courts to be seizing foreign government assets… and for the precedent to be created. I guess it would be poor diplomacy, reduce US influence if attractiveness of US as a place to do business is diminished. Yet the DOJ will not and will not want to be seen to interfere with the courts/justice. Probably want this to go away and not have the statement of interest in the public domain.
Interesting. |
as i was saying all the time
...U.S. is likely to recommend ....
it is political in the end
i just hope we will be treated well and not sacrificed to any degree. it happens often unfortunately |
The US stepping in to "suggest using a mediator" would be a good step forward, as I suspect they would only do that after informal confirmation from Argentina they are willing to settle. |
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