Seb is providing his clients with a time frame based on the fact that all three parties—Argentina, YPF, and the judgment creditors—have proposed multiple dates to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals for the Oral Arguments.
According to Seb, this window spans from mid-September to early January. The Second Circuit will soon decide which date it will select for the OAs.
He is advising his clients that if the OAs are held in mid-September (which is highly unlikely), a ruling could be expected in early 2025. However, he leans toward a late October hearing and anticipates a ruling in late Q2 2025.
Sometime he shares his reports through DM in X. |
Be careful apologies if I misled. He is talking about PBA From 2020The Province of Buenos Aires (PBA) legally entered default this week amid pleas from its creditors for serious restructuring negotiations.But Argentine sovereignbondholders are still holding out hope that they may come to an agreement with the national government.Sep 5: 2021 PBA Default Debt Case -> Conference to finalize the agreement and pay the judgment..YPF awaits appeal from Burford to bring YPF back into proceedings, Judge P view on Argentina stalling, Supreme Court being willing to hear appeal. Seb has not that I am aware of given a date. Argentina are saying nothing will happen to above exhausted..We are not there yet |
YPF Settlement before the end of the year. Interesting that Seb is suggesting this |
SebToday's Province of Buenos Aires conference with creditors was adjourned on Friday. I expect a settlement before the end of the year. YPF appeal will be fully briefed as of this Friday. Closing arguments on Sep. 6. Then hearing and then ruling. |
Dates coming again from Seb Sep 5: 2021 PBA Default Debt Case -> Conference to finalize the agreement and pay the judgment. Sep 6: YPF Case -> Final arguments from all parties in the appeal of the 2023 ruling. Sep 17: 2023 GDP-Linked Warrants -> Aurelius files a brief in response to Argentina's request to dismiss the new lawsuit. |
@threeblackcrows:
"We" is Argentinians. Seb likes to portray himself as a person that has Argentina’s best interest in mind.
Luckily for us, for him this means lobbying for a settlement to be reached. So in a way he is an ally, and also: I like the guy. Je seems smart and is persistant. He admirably really sticks with this topic. |
A government can cap fuel prices it if it owns half of the biggest fuel producer in the country, caps prices, prohibits exports and packs the business with individuals whose background is as a party loyalist rather than a resource specialist it all looks suspect |
I disagree, the govermments have the right to cap fuel prices, etc.
But regarding other corporate decisions, he may be right.
When do we expect amy decision from J. Preska? Any weeks friday? Ot similarly to last year, at beginning of september? |
Who is we ? |
Seb concludedIf the Government of CFK, Macri, AF or Javier Milei at any time showed interference in YPF's decisions regarding fuel price setting, company financing or any other corporate decision, we will have problems. |
Something that Seb published 20 days ago and again today, Bloomberg picks it up and doesn't quote him.
hxxps://x.com/SebastianMaril/status/1823287695327604917 |
 Bloomberg with thanksBurford Capital suggested that remarks by an Argentine provincial governor support its push to collect a $16 billion US court award against an oil company it argues is an "alter ego" of President Javier Milei's government. Litigation funder Burford won the judgment against Argentina last year over the 2012 nationalization of oil company YPF SA. US District Judge Loretta Preska ruled that the action violated the rights of shareholders whose interests Burford acquired. Since then, however, Burford has struggled to collect the massive award. The firm is currently trying to convince Preska to let it explore going after assets of YPF itself on the grounds that the company is essentially identical to the government. To that end, Burford lawyer Randy Mastro on Monday invoked recent public comments by Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof. Read More: Burford Seeks Argentina's YPF Stake to Pay $16 Billion Award "YPF's directors are officials of President Milei," Kicillof said at a July 31 news conference, adding that they made decisions dictated by Milei. Mastro said Kicillof's statements were consistent with Burford's position. Kicillof was criticizing YPF's decision to locate a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas plant project with Malaysia's Petronas in another province, suggesting it was a political decision. YPF, which is 51%-owned by the Argentine government, has denied the decision was political, saying that it hired international consultants to guide the choice. If Kicillof's comments prove pivotal in the case, it will hardly be the first time. The governor was deputy economy minister in 2012 and helped spearhead the YPF nationalization. At the time, he argued to congress that company by-laws requiring a nationalization to be accompanied by a tender offer to shareholders at a pre-determined price was a "bear trap," comments that were cited by Burford in its case. Burford is currently seeking further information on whether YPF is an alter ego of the Argentine government. The company argues that Preska already dismissed claims against it and says Burford is trying to relitigate the issue. The litigation funder bought the YPF shareholders' claims for $16.6 million in 2015, and its share of the judgment would be some $6.2 billion. If it can collect even part of that, Burford stands to make a massive return. But Argentina, which is also appealing the award, has a long history of stonewalling foreign judgment creditors. It fought a 15-year battle with Paul Singer's Elliott Management before reaching a $4.7 billion settlement over its 2001 sovereign debt default. |
From Seb YPF brief is inYPF presents a letter asking Judge Preska to dismiss the request of the beneficiaries of the judgement for the expropriation to declare the oil company the Alter Ego of the Argentine Republic. |
Kicillof's blunder (if it's recognised as such) was to complain that Milei's Govt had decided to award the new LNG plant to a province other than Buenos Aires (his own) and that YPF had meekly followed instructions , as ' the good civil servants that they are'.
BUR's argument before Preska is that a previous Govt (involving Kicillof) had behaved in exactly the same way when it carried out the lop-sided renationalisation/expropriation of YPF, and that YPF was effectively an agency or alter ego of the State....and that its assets were /are therefore 'fair game'.
It's discussed at length here (with Seb as star witness)
hxxps://www.perfil.com/noticias/canal-e/Alerta-estiman-que-los-dichos-de-axel-kicillof-durante-su-rueda-de-prensa-podrian-perjudicar-al-juicio-de-ypf.phtml
Maril went on to say: "The embargo process includes trying to prove that YPF and the Argentine Republic are the same, that is, they act as the same, they influence each other". He went on to say that, "a judge has to decide that, and what Kicillof said about YPF executives being Javier Milei's public officials doesn't help much".
Argentina seeks to prove to the judge that Argentina and YPF are not the same thing
"This hurts Argentina because Kicillof is a person who is a primary source of information because of his history with YPF, and he is also revealing something that the Argentine Republic is trying to disassociate", said the interviewee, who then added: "Argentina is doing its best to show the judge, who is going to decide whether YPF and Argentina are the same, that YPF is a private company that acts with its own board of directors".
On the other hand, the lawyer pointed out: "If it is proven that YPF is Argentina's alter ego, the beneficiaries of the ruling can go against the company's assets to collect the sentence that we are not paying". At the same time, he remarked that, "today they cannot do so, but if it is proven that YPF is Argentina's alter ego, they can seize the oil company's assets and that is why Kicillof's statements are very important for the future of this case".
Finally, Maril said: "The evidence is conclusive of how YPF is used as a ministry of the National Government, when YPF sets prices, the one who really sets prices is the Ministry of Economy, YPF has always been used by the Casa Rosada as a kind of additional ministry".
Seb also covers Christina Kirchner's use of YPF jets for personal travel and the recent shipment of gold to - he specifies - the UK.
He clarifies further that BUR isn't interested in the YPF shares per se (which would be problematic) but in the pressure-point that they represent....to force Argentina, he believes, to the negotiating table.
HTH |
As far as I read in case of Venezuela and PDVSA /PDVH /CITGO much less was enough to the judge to come to the conclusiom of alter ego stuff.
Argentin decision makers might be quoted as they several times declared so accidentally. Etc. |
The hunt for Argentinas alter egos in $16bn US court fight |
To make it as easy as possible.... |
Interesting lengthy feature piece in the FT titled The Hunt for Argentinian's Alter Egos in $16bn US Court Fight. It is behind the PayWall, however try searching on Google News for this title and you may be able to access it. |
(River I meant could you help le woth ths name of some of them? I would read after them deeper. Thx, Br! ) |
No negotiation with Argentina until the appeal decision is confirmed by Judge Preska. That means, negotiations won't be until spring 2025 at the earliest. 1: months away until we see some big beef |
Not waiting for any such events, but usually have at least a couple of takeover bids year in my portfolio, typically for 30% premium or so, and sure there'll be more to come. |
From Seb A Defining Moment For President Milei"Abiding by the rule of law is crucial to maintaining international credibility, fostering economic stability, and ensuring long-term prosperity for the nation".Milei is right.I agree it's a long journey but we are getting close to payout. How much will dictate the size of the spike. The payout will finally show the scale that Burford can deliver, win and recover the judgement, that will stabilise the share price much higher. Less than 12 months hopefully 2024. |
(River, could you name a few, where you are waiting for such events?) |
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