 Seb just sent a letter to his clients on this issue. He says:
“ In just seven days, the Milei administration announced plans to pre-fund interest payments on dollar-denominated sovereign debt and revealed that Argentina’s gold reserves were sent to Europe in June. With YPF judgment creditors enforcing the 2023 ruling in New York, England, and Ireland, President Milei authorized transferring valuable Argentine assets to jurisdictions where they could be seized with a court order. While we acknowledge that seizing assets owned by a sovereign state is complex and that the government likely consulted legal advisors who assured these assets are safe from creditors, Argentina’s history of courts ordering asset attachments makes these transfers intriguing.”
Then he added:
“The fact that these assets could be seized and used to satisfy court-ordered awards indicates that, if approved by the courts, the government might settle with YPF judgment creditors without requiring Argentine Congress’s approval. Moreover, if these assets are seized, the Milei administration would be ‘paying’ without appearing willing to pay, reinforcing the public perception that creditors are “a bunch of vultures” after the country’s assets, even though these creditors are not.” |
Some good pointed posts from Seb hTTps://x.com/sebastianmaril/status/1814654199889645948?s=46&t=vgRcMH1ViVAUBW46YvlN9wArgentina assets being deposited in Switzerland, London and New York.Politically the President has to get approval from congress but stabilising the country back in the world's financial system includes having a plan to behave legally. He looks to be getting there step by step. |
in the chart all the present known and unknown facts are included. not just value. including timing of value realisation. on that you add human psychology, markets, politics, future costs of capital, liquidity needs etc.
all of that builds up a chart. not just preska decisions speculation |
How can a chart factor in the outcome of Preska's rulings ?
A chart might tell you that they have tended to come out mid-dayish on a Friday, but more than that they're agnostic, surely ? |
chart as i see it |
From memory the current problem is the forecasted earnings over the next couple of years are flat to lower.
Will the growth resume or are the forecasts wrong?
Someone with a bit more time can correct me if I am wrong. |
This stock is worth 50+ by 2018 valuation standards. It actually is worth that now. And a lot of people will be unhappy not to have invested at the current price. |
"When is this going to be 20 pound plus"
£20? August 2018! |
12th of never |
When is this going to be 20 pound plus with Argentina win and others in the pipeline |
Ashmore latest :
.."Argentina: President Javier Milei postponed increases to fuel taxes and utility prices that would have added 1.2% to monthly inflation. Argentina has been running a budget surplus over the first five months of the year, reducing the urgency of increasing tax revenues and allowing the President to eliminate economic distortions at a more cautious pace.
Last Thursday, Finance Minister Luis Caputo said “energy tariffs are a fine harmony between reducing subsides and inflation… but the priority is to lower inflation.” He reiterated that Argentina would not devalue the peso again..." |
This article from 'La Vanguardia' in Barcelona might be of interest. It concerns a very old cases, 26 in total, in which Spain was ordered to pay a total of €1.5bn to parties who suffered loss when grants due on investments in renewable energy projects were, seemingly withdrawn.
What is interesting in the article is that, because Spain has refused to pay, various kinds of embargos of Spanish assets seem to have been successfully obtained.
The first three paras, passed through Google Translate, are these:
"The Belgian justice has authorized the seizure of 32 million to the Kingdom of Spain for non-payments to renewables through the income that the country obtains as a result of the management of its air traffic control.
According to the Blasket Renewable Investments fund, these payments, transferred monthly by Eurocontrol to the public company En aire, will now pass into the hands of one of the companies affected by the non-payment of 26 awards that condemn Spain to compensate 1,515 million euros to companies that suffered the retroactive withdrawal of renewable premiums.
This seizure is in addition to that of the British courts that have recognized the existence of these debts and have authorized the precautionary seizure of the headquarters of the Cervantes Institute in London, the British economic promotion office of the Generalitat of Catalonia, the building of the International School Vicente Cañadas, four bank accounts or the right to collect compensation for the Prestige disaster, valued at more than 900 million euros."
Although it seems not to be stated explicitly that Burford is running this one, their name is mentioned about half-a-dozen paras from the bottom:
"On the other hand, they explained that the Blasket Renewable Investment fund, very active in the media, has acquired the rights to several litigations, such as those of RREEF and Infrared; It has also been published that Antin has sold his arbitration to Centerbridge, which in turn has syndicated the rights to the lawsuit among more funds specialized in this type of litigation, such as Burford Capital."
I have not reproduced the whole article since I understand Spanish but put it through Google Translate should you wish. The article shows that nothing is off bounds in the recovery of judgements. |
Milei's next move...
hxxps://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/milei-lines-up-midnight-pacto-de-mayo-signing.phtml
ARGENTINA | 06-07-2024 05:38
Milei lines up midnight ‘Pacto de Mayo’ signing
Javier Milei’s next key moment, the signing of his ‘Pacto de 25 de Mayo,’ will take place in Tucumán at the strike of midnight on Independence Day. Guest list still up in the air, with Mauricio Macri expected to be the only former president in attendance.
.."10 points from the ‘Pacto de Mayo’
Milei’s accord consists of the following 10 points, with the educational item a recent incorporation:
-The inviolability of private property.
-Fiscal balance is non-negotiable.
-Reduction of public spending to its historic levels of around 25 percent of Gross Domestic Product.
-A useful and modern primary and secondary education with full literacy and without school dropouts.
-A tax reform which reduces the tax burden, simplifies the life of Argentines and promotes commerce.
-A-renewed discussion of federal revenue-sharing to end for good the current extortionate model which the provinces suffer.
-The commitment of the Argentine provinces to advance in the exploitation of the country’s natural resources
-A modern labour reform which promotes formal employment.
-A pension reform which makes the system sustainable and respects those who have contributed.
-Opening up to international trade so that Argentina can again be a protagonist of the global market.
“These 10 ideas, which are the bases for the progress of any nation, could set the conditions for Argentine growth for the next 100 years so that Argentina is a lighthouse for the West once more,” said President Milei...."
Not a bad wishlist.
In fact, some of these wouldn't go amiss in the UK ;-<..
GLA |
Seb's latest
🔴On Monday, YPF judgment creditors will file their final brief in an effort to persuade Judge Preska to compel Argentina to turn over the YPF shares expropriated in 2012. Starting July 9, there are three possible outcomes: (1) a ruling is issued, (2) Judge Preska calls for a hearing, or (3) Judge Preska recommends that all parties begin mediation (though this is unlikely). |
Is it the following: 2021. Three African materials arbitrations. Total balance sheet deployments just short of $30M for all three when last reported. Not sure which is Congo/Cameroon.
If Burford doesn’t have an equity share in the outcome, these may not be such big home runs despite the headline numbers as not a lot of capital was out to work. Anyone any insight?
Good to see the pop in the share price. A few bits of good news in quick succession will help |
Looks like burford will be owned by the USA crazy cheap share price hereGiven the massive case load |
More coverage |
It looks as though BUR MAY receive something from just-announced settlement of the Sundance Resources litigation.
hxxps://www.sundanceresources.com.au/irm/content/company-updates.aspx?RID=468
Following a mediated discussion that Congo had recently initiated with Sundance, we are pleased to announce the execution of a binding but confidential and conditional settlement agreement (“Conditional Settlement”) between Sundance, Congo Iron SA and Congo (“The Parties”) which is meant to settle the ongoing and previously announced dispute between The Parties before the International Court of Arbitration of the ICC (“ICC”).
If the cash funds are disbursed as agreed in the Conditional Settlement, then the ICC arbitration will end; conversely, if the funds are not received in due course and for the full amount, then the arbitration will continue undisturbed with the hearing now expected to be held in Paris midNovember this year.
If successful, the Conditional Settlement is intended to occur by no later than the end September2024. Sundance will further update shareholders as more certainty is achieved.
In line with confidentiality clauses attached to the Conditional Settlement, Sundance is unable to disclose at this stage the quantum of the agreed cash proceeds. However, consistent with Sundance’s communications with all stakeholders, any cash proceeds received by the Company as a result of its proceedings against Congo will be applied to meet the obligations to Sundance’s litigation funder and secured noteholders as well as returning value for the Company’s shareholders.
The headline claim was for USD 8.8 Bn, Congo Brazzaville has no means to pay more than a fraction of
that amount.
hxxps://disputescentre.com.au/sundance-resources-arbitration/
NAI, DYOR etc etc
GLA |
I am only reading they value Burford at 10.00 as a good entry point for a profitable return and that is not based on dividend return but invested for share price growth. Agreed someone has to sell for them to buy. |
Blackrock are mainly passive investors so wouldn't read too much into this. |
Blackrock Fund Advisors taking over 6%. |
Shows how much tracks the Russell indices |
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