Burberry Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/7/2024 18:22

LVMH are down from EUR860 to 700 (-18%) off their high in March
BRBY is faring worse and down 1150 to 850 (-25%)
DGE is down 3000 to 2500 (-16%)

Premium/Luxury is having a tough time in Q2-2024, but it is not isolated to Burberry..

[cynicalsteve] 01/7/2024 18:08

We all hope for LVMH or Kering to come riding to the rescue but personally I think Burberry is more likely to be a Mike Ashley target. That sums up their problem: are they a luxury brand or are their products just expensive?

[aimloser1] 01/7/2024 15:26

Where is the bottom? Already 50% down and only bought few months ago

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/7/2024 15:03

#Disc0dave46, we have a global market and every component of that has their own inflation battles and interest rates to deal with, but H2 should see the tide turn and hopefully we can gain some traction from reducing rates, the ECB and Canada have started and made their 1st cuts, hopefully many more to follow as they get on top of inflation, UK/US soon..? China is a big piece of the pie and with a bit of luck they will make a move too, they will not want their economy to stagnate that is for sure..

[disc0dave46] 01/7/2024 14:37

Isn't China their main market at c 30%?The Q4 19% drop in sales can't be down to inflation (currently I believe it's 0.3%) or interest rate cuts but "luxury shaming" etc.Agree rate cuts for the US will help but zero impact on their Chinese market.All IMO and wtfdik

[johndoe23] 01/7/2024 09:16

Downtrend continues. Annoyed as should have shorted this at 1100p. Reluctant to now, even though it still looks a short!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/7/2024 08:17

#Essential investor, the BOD drive strategy, we will have to wait and see the results, any progress made will be welcomed over 2024, the disposable spending squeeze will continue for a while yet but rates coming back will be the start of the process (IMO)..

March 2023 vs March 2024 results
Profit -36%
EPS -40%
SP now down -60% (from 2200 to 900)

[essentialinvestor] 30/6/2024 20:40

Laurence, what's your definition of 'headway'?.

You sound way too optimistic, but let's see.

[trying2trade] 30/6/2024 20:17

A 1% drop in interest rates isn't going to help someone who's 2 or 5 year mortgage deal is about to come to an end, they're still going to be significantly worse off. There's economic struggle on the cards for years to come, irrespective of who's in charge.

[jxwire] 30/6/2024 07:27

Nosediving

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/6/2024 18:36

18.07.2024 to see if they have made any headway in the Q1 trading update, but IMO this is mostly about interest rates / disposable cash levels, we can buy in design skills IF changes are needed..

I am waiting to add my other 50% to the position here, news/rates driven.. :o)

04.07.2024 - GE
17.07.2024 - inflation data
01.08.2024 - BOE rates decision

[essentialinvestor] 29/6/2024 18:27

Dave, they've opened a lot of physical shops, if revenue projectins fall short and some closures are required, that may be costly.

Their current head of design may not last much longer imv.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/6/2024 18:25

#Pugugly, that is 2 of us then fashion is not my strong point either.. :o), but BRBY have been around for 168 years and ridden through WW1/2, and 2 pandemics, things could of course get worse before they get better, , but I do like long established businesses with history of survival through thick and thin..

March 2020 Covid low of 1150 when all the shops were shut and the world closed for business..?
May 2007 high of 700 to post crash 2008 low of 200 pence, but look at the recovery from there for 15 years straight.. :o)

[pugugly] 29/6/2024 18:20

LLB: Thanks for thoughts - Though I am certainly not target market very many years ago I used to work with an associated fashion industry; so gut worry is that they may have lost their way - However age precludes me from chatting to relevant age groups!!!!.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/6/2024 18:07

#Pugugly, the share price has weakened more than I was expecting in May/June too, no support at 1000 pence, IMO luxury/premium is waiting for a cut in interest rates to add to shoppers disposable cash to spend then share prices will reverse, the election and uncertainty over fiscal policy is not helping much either..

DGE trend is similar too..

4th July GE and 1st August BOE decision getting closer now and inflation is well on track now to 2%..

I bought for income and keep for a decade, IMO BRBY is a strong enough brand to ride it out, they may also get picked off by a powerhouse like LVMH if some MnA were to take place in the space..?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/6/2024 13:37

Often when a share suffers a price down turn the dividend gets a haircut, so it is important to keep sight of the policy..

Annual report 30.05.2024 - progressive dividend policy, The absolute amount of dividend per share will remain stable or increase on a full-year basis, broadly targeting a pay-out of around 50% of adjusted earnings per share at reported rates of exchange. The interim dividend pay-out is 30% of the absolute value of the prior year full-year dividend.

What matters to shareholders - through our groups strategy we are creating long-term sustainable value for our shareholders. Total shareholder return (TSR) through share price appreciation and dividend payments..

[disc0dave46] 29/6/2024 12:45

Back to 2010 value with forecast earnings more than one-third higher. Foreward PE getting interesting, possible recovery play at some point?.RSI in oversold territory which normally generates some uptick for traders.

[johndoe23] 27/6/2024 19:43

One of the worst charts I've seen

[primarch1] 27/6/2024 14:29

Is this the new superdry!!!

[purplepelmets] 27/6/2024 13:48

If BRBY was a horse, Id send it to the glue factory.

[havinthelasttoast] 27/6/2024 08:41

Just remember what I told you all before results with my data and you mugs all argued.

This will be 700. It’s a candidate for a busto at this rate. They should sell quickly as so should you mugs.

Lovya loads ya daft mugs

[mantelsloris] 27/6/2024 08:37

Just the exdiv pushing it lower today

[aimloser1] 27/6/2024 08:28

I keep thinking this can’t go any lower yet it keeps defying me

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/6/2024 13:09

Yes, for 42.7 pence.. :o)