Burberry Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 04/2/2016 16:21

Makes total sense to me Phil. What I find very uncomfortable now is also the prospect of sterling should we go to a referendum on EU. Cliche I know but this year should throw some very good trading opportunities considering the drivers which have the ability to seriously move various markets.

[philanderer] 04/2/2016 14:01

And opened a new FTSE250 short this morning.... dismal BOE forecast

[philanderer] 03/2/2016 18:03

I doubled up my FTSE100 short this week , still short BRBY , long half a dozen 'defensives' and the rest cash . Doing ok at the moment. Luck to all

[rndm355] 03/2/2016 17:40

Fair enough tongosti, we are running totally different strategies but good luck to you.

[tongosti] 03/2/2016 14:58

Following from the above, I have completely liquidated any individual stock holdings. My only positions now are - Short SP500- Long gold (which in effect emphasises the above short due to inverse correlation)I was stopped out of the USD / YEN trade as my 11900 stop loss level was hit

[tongosti] 03/2/2016 14:41

I would wait until there is a meaningful catalyst for the broad equity markets to pick up in the first place mate. I genuinely think that - unless you have another huge round of quantitative easing / negative rates in the US - the stock averages will find it very difficult to make significant headway from here. As such, getting in early may be a risky proposition. I know there are pros and cons to each argument but my personal preference is to get in only when industry and equity induces are above their 200day averages. Irrespective how compelling the fundamental case may be, broader industry and market trends can kill you if you get in at the wrong time. Cheap and quality companies can always get cheaper if broader markets are not able to advance. Naturally, I may get this all wrong so who knows!2016 is going to be really interesting.

[rndm355] 02/2/2016 22:25

Thanks tongosti & philanderer Wouldn't mind a top up if Burbs gets back around or below £11

[philanderer] 02/2/2016 20:32

Strong sales in Europe and US help LVMH shrug off China slowdown HTTP://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/308481f6-c9d6-11e5-be0b-b7ece4e953a0.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fcompanies%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct#axzz3z2pcP473

[philanderer] 02/2/2016 20:30

back to the yen ;-) 'Hedge funds thought they had the yen worked out. They were wrong' HTTP://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/hedge-funds-thought-they-had-the-yen-worked-out-they-were-wrong/?utm_source=tw&bbgsum=DG-WS-CORE-SL-TW#prclt-JqZ2W1Ai

[philanderer] 01/2/2016 20:24

1st feb Deutsche hold tp 1350p

[tongosti] 01/2/2016 17:54

Thanks for sharing your thinking rndm - much appreciated. As you, I have also opened up a YEN short but against the USD. Reason being the divergence in monetary policies is a bit more pronounced relative to US (as opposed to GBP). I am also avoiding taking on USD currency risk (relative to £) as the synthetic future contract is in hedged version. Thanks and good luck.

[rndm355] 01/2/2016 17:29

Ok tongosti, no problem. With apologies to those who want to discuss BRBY... I have a 5% allocation to cash (just to provide for a little flexibility in my portfolio). Based on the view that the yen is now definitely a weak currency with a poor outlook, and the lack of weakness since their extraordinary and desperate NIRP policy was announced, I placed a GBPJPY trade equivalent in size to my portfolio's cash balance. e.g. if I had £1,000 cash in my portfolio, my trade was equivalent to using that cash as collateral with which to borrow £1,000 worth of yen and buy an additional £1,000 worth of gbp with it. So the value of my cash balance measured in GBP will now rise and fall with the GBPJPY exchange rate, meaning that I am effectively unleveraged. I'm happy to hold 5% in cash for the long-term and my view on the weak yen is also long-term and therefore I made the bet using the June 2016 forward (it's cheaper to make a long-term bet using a long-term instrument) and will happily roll this bet perpetually until my view changes or my basic minimum price target is reached (188 GBPJPY - a 10% unleveraged return on my cash!)

[tongosti] 01/2/2016 16:56

Thanks for sharing that rndm. Am not very familiar with Twitter so if you have a chance to copy and paste here whatever you have posted there would be appreciated.

[rndm355] 01/2/2016 16:52

I am long GBPJPY at 172.3 with the June 2016 forward for anyone who cares.... See my twitter.

[rndm355] 01/2/2016 16:47

The only people who "aren't happy" are other photographers who think Brooklyn hasn't earned his dues.... no kidding LOL

[philanderer] 01/2/2016 15:58

'People Aren’t Happy About Brooklyn Beckham's New Burberry Campaign' HTTP://www.look.co.uk/fashion/brooklyn-beckham-photographs-his-first-burberry-campaign

[tongosti] 30/1/2016 10:47

Rndm - well done on the Yen last time you traded it. Impeccable timing indeed. Hopefully there will be a repeat this time around too. Good weekend.

[rndm355] 29/1/2016 23:10

Last time I shorted the yen versus USD, I closed it at 120 in Dec 2014. Shorting it at 121 this year then looks attractive given the evolution of their respective monetary (and fiscal) positions - both absolutely awful, but Japan much worse. I'm sticking to long-only equity investing these days but tongosti makes great points above. On the other hand, this is a Burberry thread, so let's all enjoy this article which reveals how Brooklyn Beckham, with his 6 million instagram followers, will be photographing the next Burberry Fragrance campaign: hxxp://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/brooklyn-beckham-photograph-burberry-campaign-860381 Price target on Burberry 1800p within the next two years.

[tongosti] 29/1/2016 22:42

no worries mate - who knows but i think it is worthwhile researching. If you recall May 2014, after the ECB introduced negative rates the Euro lost about 30% against the dollar in about 9 months. Who knows what will happen to the Yen (as in a severe bear market the Yen can also serve as a heaven [which is not but the people think it is] and appreciate rather than depreciate) but one thing is for sure - BoJ is intent of creating inflation come what may. Enough is enough so back to my glass of vino - have a good weekend!

[philanderer] 29/1/2016 17:31

Hi tongosti , I haven`t actually traded currencies for years but I`ll have a look over the weekend . Thanks for the idea :-)

[tongosti] 29/1/2016 11:21

Phil - considering we find ourselves in the land of shorting, I suggest you may want to take a look at shorting JPY (relative to $)?I reckon BoJ just threw us a good trading opportunity and as long as the interest differential with the dollar stays where it is, the markets should push the Yen lower. Have a good weekend - hopefully Feb will be a better month

[philanderer] 29/1/2016 11:06

Bernstein Reaffirmed Burberry Group (LON:BRBY) As “Market Perform”; Has Target Of GBX 1350

[philanderer] 27/1/2016 17:26

No expert but chartwise it looks like around 1225p to break the downtrend

[philanderer] 22/1/2016 11:33

'How top digital luxury brands create a premium e-commerce experience' HTTP://digiday.com/brands/top-digital-luxury-brands-create-premium-e-commerce-experience/