Burberry Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 20/8/2015 23:27

Thanks tongosti.

Looks like BRBY will be even nearer to your 800p target tomorrow. This global growth story (or rather lack of) is gaining momentum now...... sub 1400p for sure tomorrow morning.

FTSE fut -70pts at the moment.


Luck with all your investments.

[tongosti] 20/8/2015 22:27

philanderer - fair play to you. Going for companies that you are familiar with is a very sensible approach. From memory, Peter Lynch made a bundle on the back of a very similar thesis back in the 80's. And yes, it seems like you find yourself between a hard rock (Nice) and a hard blue place (surrounded by the Ionian and Aegean seas)What a tough life eh :)All the best mate

[philanderer] 20/8/2015 20:50

tongosti, I`ve never done that much research in 25 years of gambling with shares ;-)

I hit really lucky with Baltimore Technoligies in the late `90's with a £10k punt @40p, selling out a few months before the bubble burst @ £120...... big tax bill but a huge return.

I`ve usually gone for companies with proven management and well known brands, and until recently just punted on the odd speculative one. But preferably companies that I`m familiar with and use myself.

Could never understand why British Airways were so undervalued, I fly with them about 40 times a year and they always impress. Bought them at 160p a couple of years ago and sold them at 540p.

Really just left now with a 'safe' portfolio.

As for the sunshine , definitely. At the moment we have an apartment in Nice (where my wife`s companies are based) and one on Naxos. My wife loves France but I love the greek islands. So that`s a problem yet to be resolved ;-)

[tongosti] 20/8/2015 19:19

philanderer - happy hearing you are in the proverbial sweet spot mate! It's all right for some isn't it:)I trust you find yourself in a good sunny climate too and not missing the UK weather that bad, are you? Lol. Thanks for sharing your list. I was also with ARM until last November but then sold out. I see you tend to invest in larger companies. I am flexible instead. Small or large it does not bother me so long as there is a good business model in place and attractive growth profile. At the moment I am holding a very small stake in XAR and just bailed out of DTG. I also hold two very speculative (and hence very small holdings) in VLS and FOGL. The rest of my (passive) equity exposure is in broad based ETF market instrument. As I said, I am mostly in cash now but what I have done is screen out the whole UK market using the following two key principles:- companies exhibiting superior growth (sales, gross / op. / net profits, fcf) levels during the last 10 years; and - companies with rock solid balance sheets (extremely small / negative debt levels)At the moment, my screening tool has picked up about 40 UK companies (BRBY and ARM are amongst them). What I have done next is that I have valued each of these 40 companies separately (it's taken me a fair bit of time [missus not too happy with my stock market dedication]) and have so decided on my entry stock price levels for each. Now that the work is done and the watch list is set up it is a waiting game, really. Am waiting for either a company-specific glitch or a broader market correction as none of the above companies are selling at an attractive price for my liking at the moment. As I said earlier, I will start buying (assuming the share price will ever get there!) once the trigger levels have been hit. Have also devised a methodology about how I average down (for ex.: I can start buying BRBY at 800p but I will certainly increase my stake at 500p) + how much exposure I want in each stock + how many stocks I want in my portfolio (not more than 15, max). Happy to share the stocks I invest in when my trigger levels get hit. Out of curiosity, how has your investment list come about? Do you also employ a filtering mechanism or else?

[philanderer] 20/8/2015 18:16

tongosti , out of interest what shares are you holding ?


I`m long:

ARM
AZN
ABF
BRBY
BVIC
CHOO
DGE
DOM
PLND
RDSB
RPC

[philanderer] 20/8/2015 18:09

Burberry Group plc (LON:BRBY)‘s stock had its “market perform” rating reiterated by equities researchers at Sanford C. Bernstein in a note issued to investors on Thursday, Analyst Ratings Net reports. They presently have a GBX 1,700 price objective on the stock.

[philanderer] 20/8/2015 18:07

LOL - no tongosti , quite the opposite. I`ve made enough really , just messing about with a few shares now as a hobby while my lovely wife gets her businesses sold :-)

[tongosti] 20/8/2015 17:47

philanderer - I see you are getting impatient about your Ferrari midlife crisis gift mate! As EssentialImvestor wisely says, your cash allocation provides you with huge optionality when opportunities would be plenty (of course they will as they always have). I honestly think that the next market bottom has a very good chance of being a generational investment opportunity (the same way that '21, '32, '49 and '82 were). Think about it, the West is drowning in debt and the central bankers have run out of ammunition (except QE of course but who would bet the house on them pulling the same rabbit out of the hat again?). Essential Investor - don't know whether you have gone through it already but there is another title I would also fully recommend from Seth Klarman called The Margin of Safety. Another classic. Very eloquent defence of cash being the best hedge (naturally, assuming no raging inflation is awaiting around the corner). Klarman has built the second biggest hedge fund in the world in a very unconventional way. He only invests in deep value situations (highly concentrated bets) and he stays in cash whenever opportunities dry up (as opposed to playing silly games via conventional shorting techniques, which most of hedges do these days [i wonder how come they are so successful:)]). His returns over the last 30 years or so amount in the 25-30% pa range.

[essentialinvestor] 20/8/2015 17:25

tong, like the quote, that's a new one on me.

What cash gives you is optionality, the flip side being gradual erosion
in it's buying power over time.

Plenty of UKX stocks off 6-7% in just a few days, that's another type of erosion.

[philanderer] 20/8/2015 17:18

Exact opposite for me . I`m nearing 50 :-)

I`ve been cashing in my shareholdings for the last two years . I`m 90% cash and just have nine holdings left. I live abroad for over 6 months of the year at the moment but plan on leaving the UK for good in the next couple of years.

[tongosti] 20/8/2015 17:05

Something else mate: if you are still impatient to invest on age grounds, I would still advocate staying in cash (boring as it is). Gonna quote from a very good book where the guy says: "the stock market is not an accommodating machine in the sense of providing you with returns simply because you need them". I think these words are true pearls of investment wisdom. If keen, the book is called The most important thing. Author is Howard Marks and he has a hugely successful investment practice on he other side of the pond. The book has received top marks from the man himself - Buffett

[tongosti] 20/8/2015 16:59

Late 30's mate but the missus keeps telling me I should go do gymming a bit more as my beer belly is not too good!As for shorting BRBY - I never short a high quality company. If I feel the price is not right, I do the boring thing and go in cash waiting for the right moment (needless to say whilst watching the rest of the world get richer in the meantime!)My cash allocation is about 60% at the moment, am very bored about being inactive and I can't wait to get my feet wet. Needless to say, I need a bit of help from Mr Market though and hope he gets depressive soon (maybe he has already considering the falling markets over the last few days - will see...) and starts throwing some good bargains at us.

[philanderer] 20/8/2015 16:27

Good luck to you tongosti , you must have age on your side :-)

I`ll have finished with all this shares malarky by then.

edit:

just a thought but why don`t you open a short with BRBY ?

[tongosti] 20/8/2015 15:42

Hopefully we will get the chance to start building up a position after the 800p barrier is broken (sooner rather than later one hopes). That time of the day now where I dream :) but I hope that we will get a chance to load up significantly if the share price oscillates between 300 - 800p at some point in the next year or two. Naturally, this is wishful thinking but BRBY is a cyclical business so nothing should surprise anyone. Stranger things have happened. If that indeed happens, I hope I am smart enough to follow my own advise and load up - heavily - for the next cyclical upturn!

[philanderer] 20/8/2015 15:35

1400p going to be tested today by the look of it.

Plenty getting dumped on the market.

[philanderer] 19/8/2015 17:37

Support at 1400p then 1300p chartwise.

But China dictating everything , even the charts.

[philanderer] 14/8/2015 13:59

'Burberry Revamps Its Image in Japan'

British luxury brand ditches $70 shirts and tartan miniskirts for $1,800 trench coats, in a bid to regain aura of exclusivity

[tongosti] 14/8/2015 10:17

I don't like waiting either mate, but so far I have not figured out how else to play this game. Hopefully, a general market correction will take place sooner rather than later!

[philanderer] 14/8/2015 09:18

Morning everyone.

tongosti , I`m getting a bit too old to be very patient ; running out of time ;-D

[tongosti] 14/8/2015 08:18

Very long way to go philanderer but I have learned to be very patient. If we get lucky see BRBY cheapen substantially, I think it would be one of the great buy opportunities in the large UK market space. Ample room to grow the business world wide and immense branding power. Sitting it out at the moment but watching it closely. Good weekend all!

[philanderer] 13/8/2015 16:28

That lasted about a couple of hours .... back in the downtrend and heading for your 800p tongosti.

[philanderer] 13/8/2015 09:28

Fair call tongosti, it is a rich valuation.


"German stocks bouncing back strongly. Carmakers and luxury brands also doing well after Peoples Bank says enough devaluation"

BBC Business

[tongosti] 12/8/2015 23:49

I think a pullback is going to be very healthy for the company. This is one of the very few big UK companies which commands an enviable growth profile and a splendid balance sheet. However, value is still not here, in my opinion. I am following the company like a hawk but will not get in until the share price gets another 45% lower or something. No guarantee that it will ever do. Naturally. If it does, that would be great. If not, I wish all holders good luck

[philanderer] 12/8/2015 17:12

Back to october 2014 , next support at 1430p on the chart

closed:

Top Fallers

Glencore 180.15 -5.68%
Unilever 2777.50 -4.62%
International Consolidated Airlines Group 524.50 -4.55%
ARM Holdings 916.00 -4.53%
3i Group 515.25 -4.05%
Burberry Group 1474.50 -4.00%

[philanderer] 12/8/2015 09:18

Just sit back and wait for the downgrades from the experts who did not predict a yuan devaluation.

edit:

added @ 1493p