Bt Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 13/11/2017 19:21

The tale of Marconi should be studied by every business student.

My surprise was Weinstock did not see through the collective mania
around tech at the time, and sell out.

Very easy after the event in fairness. I stayed out of markets at the time,

[alphorn] 13/11/2017 18:32

"held up partly" ;))

[action] 13/11/2017 18:29

EsLost in marconi big time too. Bt only have small position at 331 .

[careful] 13/11/2017 18:21

Political turmoil and Brexit may be to blame.
index is held up partly because of the collapsed £.
..but the domestic market, it is collapsing before us.
Brexit is a disaster.

Corbyn will romp home by promising to reverse it.

[careful] 13/11/2017 18:18

not enough director buying.
Always a bad sign after a share price has halved.

[careful] 13/11/2017 18:16

CNA must have upside, depends upon the price cap.
Green levies do not help.
but a PE of 5, amazing.

[eisler] 13/11/2017 18:04

Some way off the bottom, I think. 200 may well be tested before the year-end, but will be astounded if it goes (much) below that into the new year...

[essentialinvestor] 13/11/2017 16:57

Careful, I don't see the upside in CNA.

[toon1966] 13/11/2017 16:51

Careful - thanks for reminding me of Marconi, certainly got my fingers burnt there!! In for the long term with BT, but suspect we've not seen the bottom yet.

[careful] 13/11/2017 16:31

It takes nerve to go against the trend.
I nearly got out of Glen a couple of years ago, when Goldman had it as a conviction sell when it was below £1.0.
Investec said Glen had no value.

I was stubborn and bought my last trench at 69p.
Today 360p.

I have the same emotions here.
Almost tempted to dump the lot at a loss.
but I will endure the pain again.

In the past I have endured the pain at Northern Rock, RBS, Woolwoths and Marconi.
..they can't scare me.

[careful] 13/11/2017 16:24

Shorters will want to close at some time.
price is getting ridiculous as measured against consensus PE of under 10 and yield of 6%+ for the next 2 years.

That ties in with Bt's own estimates.
In the annual presentation there are pages of risk assessment so prediction is never easy.

[andy84uk] 13/11/2017 16:17

All I know is, I will buying a lot more if the £2.35 price does hit.

[careful] 13/11/2017 16:15

every share halves or doubles.
very few exceptions.
nothing to do with Gavin Patterson or fundamentals.

When the high frequency momentum boys eventually decide to reverse and go long, they will come out with some other guff then up it will go, probably a long way.
In and out 1 million trades a day.

BT are doing fine.
A difficult complex company to run with a politically motivated regulator on their back.
Plus the Italian error. but accidents will happen, errors will be made.
Despite all of that, profits, dividend, cash flow were good.

Look away, this could go anywhere right now.

[essentialinvestor] 13/11/2017 16:11

Watched the results webcast yesterday and not particularly impressed by GP,
a little lightweight. New Chair has arrived not a moment too soon imv.

[dmf] 13/11/2017 15:56

The market appears to be signalling it wants GP out !!

[andy84uk] 13/11/2017 15:47

As much as I hate to admit it but Monty may be right with the £2.35 prediction. It is a 61.8% retracement from the low of 2009 to the high in 2016. This would be a massive support line and theres not really much technically stopping the price from going there, before any kind of reversal.

[oakville] 13/11/2017 15:44

Probably this week.

[oakville] 13/11/2017 15:00

£2 target

[andy84uk] 13/11/2017 14:23

The middle of October was the last time BT had 2 up days in a row. The last time it had 3 up days in a row was 4 months ago back in July. The RSI will be entering single digits soon at this rate.

[wllmherk] 13/11/2017 14:13

When did these last rise 2 days in a row ?

Selling has been relentless for what seems like weeks. Between these and CNA I'm down thousands and it is starting to hurt.


wllm

[stewart64] 13/11/2017 10:23

Re. sentiment driving down the price of BT it is logical for investors to hold back from a falling knife.

Indeed we may be well below fair value, but someone who didn't pull the trigger at £3.00 (believing that to be correctly priced) now has the chance to buy at a much lower price even if good news arrives and puts a floor under the current price and there is a rebound. Until then it wont get real support until it is seen to have settled. Trying to guess the bottom can be very costly...it could be £2.46, it could be £2.00.

[careful] 13/11/2017 09:28

pe does take effect of these factors.
the extra £540 million pa for the next 30 years takes care of the pension,and hopefully it will improve and not be needed.

This assumption that all 200,000 existing pensioners will live very long lives and that interest rates will stay permanently low is pessimistic.
It would not surprise me if the fund was in surplus within 5-10 years.

The debt effects the figures because of interest paid comes off profit. Think of it as an interest only mortgage.
Also, the strong cash flow effectively reduces debt.

[essentialinvestor] 13/11/2017 09:14

PE takes no account of the pension deficit or net debt,
it's meaninglessness re BT.