Bt Share Discussion Threads

[oakville] 13/11/2017 15:00

£2 target

[andy84uk] 13/11/2017 14:23

The middle of October was the last time BT had 2 up days in a row. The last time it had 3 up days in a row was 4 months ago back in July. The RSI will be entering single digits soon at this rate.

[wllmherk] 13/11/2017 14:13

When did these last rise 2 days in a row ?

Selling has been relentless for what seems like weeks. Between these and CNA I'm down thousands and it is starting to hurt.


wllm

[stewart64] 13/11/2017 10:23

Re. sentiment driving down the price of BT it is logical for investors to hold back from a falling knife.

Indeed we may be well below fair value, but someone who didn't pull the trigger at £3.00 (believing that to be correctly priced) now has the chance to buy at a much lower price even if good news arrives and puts a floor under the current price and there is a rebound. Until then it wont get real support until it is seen to have settled. Trying to guess the bottom can be very costly...it could be £2.46, it could be £2.00.

[careful] 13/11/2017 09:28

pe does take effect of these factors.
the extra £540 million pa for the next 30 years takes care of the pension,and hopefully it will improve and not be needed.

This assumption that all 200,000 existing pensioners will live very long lives and that interest rates will stay permanently low is pessimistic.
It would not surprise me if the fund was in surplus within 5-10 years.

The debt effects the figures because of interest paid comes off profit. Think of it as an interest only mortgage.
Also, the strong cash flow effectively reduces debt.

[essentialinvestor] 13/11/2017 09:14

PE takes no account of the pension deficit or net debt,
it's meaninglessness re BT.

[careful] 13/11/2017 09:12

talk of VOD getting into ultra fast broadband being a threat to bt.

[careful] 13/11/2017 09:01

a forward pe of under 10 and a 'progressive' yield starting at 6% predicted for the next 2 years, and we are still falling.
Current pe of 12.8 was only because of the one off costs of Open Reach fines and the cost of Italian problems.
These predicted PE's include extra pension payments go £540m p.a.

In the short term it is sentiment and only sentiment that decides prices.

[toon1966] 13/11/2017 08:58

Hmmmmmm down again on a Monday morning and the FTSE's up......

[montyhedge] 12/11/2017 15:54

Looking at the chart it looks like 233p possible.May rise in the morning as the Monday morning bulls buy for a punt for the week. Then bears start sharpening their claws ready to pounce.

[essentialinvestor] 11/11/2017 17:43

Stewart, it's not working, fortunately or unfortunately depending on
your viewpoint.

Have little doubt left Corbyn will be PM, if ill health strikes then Thornberry
takes over and LAB would still win.

BT is one of the few UK domestic stocks I would not have many concerns about
In those circumstances.

[stewart64] 11/11/2017 17:36

Essentialinvestor...Agree Tories have done no favours for BT or indeed any mainly domestic focused company. Imo they have tried to look tough on the 'wealth extractors' and out-Corbyn Corbyn to appease the masses.

So long as the political class keep props under their 7 figure Islington homes and final salary packages all is good for them I guess.

[careful] 11/11/2017 17:31

High level corruption is a problem in todays markets.
Corbyn is a threat because of it.

Something political is going on with BT and it stinks.

[essentialinvestor] 11/11/2017 17:18

This Tory party has done BT no favours.

Murdoch controlled companies compete with BT
and the Tory party has strong links with the Murdoch family.

BT competing with SKY, has been astute cultivating links with
a Corbyn controlled Labour party. Large delegations from BT attended
this and last years LAB conferences.

You can make a case BT may thrive under Labour, if anything will thrive!.
All IMV as always.

[careful] 11/11/2017 16:56

If % of shorted stock is 22% and these positions are active, then we should look forward at some point to these positions being closed.
That is why we get so many V shaped share price graphs, unconnected to fundamentals.

Temporary short position are bogus share sales.
Quickly reversed.
We are awaiting the turning point.

[stewart64] 11/11/2017 16:26

With regard to price to earnings...I am very suspicious of anything beyond the bald truth of profit after tax. There's always some special write off that needs disregarding. Kier is a good example...not actually made a penny over the last three years though adjusted p/e currently paints a rosey single digit p/e because of adjustments.

[smurfy2001] 11/11/2017 16:04

Where did you find that as it's not on shortracker.co.uk?

Here are the most shorted stocks and BT is not listed.



--

joshondale11 Nov '17 - 15:04 - 26171 of 26172 0 0
Percentage of shorted stock has increased to 22% !

[dr biotech] 11/11/2017 15:49

Just a quick point here - anyone who uses ADFVNs figures should do so with a large pinch of salt. I know that Monty isn't the sharpest tool in the box, but the PE ratio quoted here (12.9) uses the EPS in the results - those who know anything about the market would use the "adjusted" EPS figures instead. So if you look at say HL they say that BT has a PE of 8.6

The difference between the two can be small, but in BTs case its quite large as they have the Italian debacle in the EPS but not in the AEPS. The figure of 13 would be assuming that we would see another fraud of the same size every year.

I don't expect Monty or his follows to be able to understand this rather simple premise, but everyone else should be able too.

[joshondale] 11/11/2017 15:04

Percentage of shorted stock has increased to 22% !

[montyhedge] 11/11/2017 15:03

I reckon Ofcom let BT keep Openreach so Ofcom can control and tell them what to do. They keep coming out with news.https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/10/broadband-landline-compensation-scheme-payouts

[careful] 11/11/2017 12:55

A dividend of 6%+ (well covered) should in normal times result in a significant capital growth.
An aggressive regulator is not helping.

[essentialinvestor] 11/11/2017 12:29

I make it circa 11 X for 2018.

However PE really does not cut it when it comes to BT,
it's too rudimentary a metric.

[mickbell2] 11/11/2017 11:58

Stewart64, that P/E of 13 is based on last years results, which was an exceptionally bad year for BT for well documented reasons, so far no sign of anything similar this year, touch wood.

Digital look consensus forecasts for 2018 & 2019 are: (average from 34 brokers)
Year End Rev (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
2018-03-31 24,004.26 3,173.85 27.29p 9.0 -1.6 -6% 15.74p 6.3%
2019-03-31 24,021.82 3,387.35 28.15p 8.9 2.8 3% 16.44p 6.6%

Probably neither will be right, however I expect it to be closer to 9, than 13.
A positive result from the pensions court review would also be a big boost early Dec.

DYOR etc