British Polythene Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 08/9/2009 15:15

Dunno - only noticed the large trades this am - must be a positive tho - the price has risen since.

CR

[eye2] 07/9/2009 16:34

ANYONE NO WERE THESE BUYS OR SELLS, LATE ON ?

[cockneyrebel] 02/9/2009 15:07

Looks like a bot buying 1247 chunks to fill a large buy - most buys I've seen in an age :-)

CR

[nurdin] 01/9/2009 17:40

Just tell me what are they forecasting for eps...:o)

[stegrego] 01/9/2009 17:27

Just register then! Its free ;)

[nurdin] 01/9/2009 17:26

Shame I am not registered :o(

[cockneyrebel] 01/9/2009 17:22

Cheers Seg - looks a decent note, no surprises and I expect as they get more confident things a stronger statemnt will come from the co.

CR

[stegrego] 01/9/2009 17:09

New note out today

[greengiant] 01/9/2009 08:24

Just a quick update on prices - September is looking at about £100 per tonne increase (about 6.50%)on PE - as per latest price lists. August looked low, so it would appear price increases starting in September. May be part of the reason for the more cautious H2 statement. Not a holder anymore but not interested in deramping - only informing

gg

[mattjos] 31/8/2009 13:31

everton .. nice.. thnx for the post .. the chinese operation little underplayed thus far. Maybe they are holding this back a bit on the basis that it may be used to help hit the EPS target if sales elsewhere are slow .. equally could be a nice little ratchet to EPS at Y/E if other parts of the business perform as anticipated.

[sleveen] 30/8/2009 16:33

I think EPS of 40p is easily acheivable C Mc is being typically cautious. I was an investor in BPI many years ago a made a nice wedge when I sold. I can see these back to 500p in perhaps 18months.

[everton448] 30/8/2009 15:33

Mattjos - speaking of which....

[mattjos] 30/8/2009 15:06

agree with the recent posts here ... I like the fact that they have re-structured & the management tend towards caution preferring to over-deliver against forecast than opposite. Unless I missed something, & I haven't see the broker forecast, the interims make no refernce to the Chinese & Australian sales sales pipeline that was referred to in the Finals ... along the lines of now starting to make sales to satisfy Chinese domestic demand. China will have same markets for BPI to go at ..... construction materials, food & agriculture .... if we do have a recovery underway in Europe & USA (albeit a slow one) & they achieve same as or slightly better '08 second half sales (July has got them off to a good start) then maybe the added icing here is the Chinese sales volumes which may enable them to report better than anticipated .... I added to my holding on Friday @ 225

[meadow50] 30/8/2009 12:44

Despite posters being critical of the broker forecast which seem to be over cautious -at least its target price is 260.If nurdin is right that the earnings forecast is 20% too low ,then the forecast share price ought to be 312p.Some way to go then.

[everton448] 30/8/2009 11:22

Agree CR - still think this looks like stand out value - got a fair few of these and will add some more on Tuesday i reckon

[cockneyrebel] 30/8/2009 11:07

"it is inevitable that the second half of
the year will not match the first half. July has been a much better month than
last year, however the outcome for the full year will depend on the raw material
price cycle and whether traditional retail Christmas spend is up to
expectations."


"it is inevitable that the second half of the year will not match the first half" - understatement of the year - if they matched H1 last year they'd do nearly 56p eps - nobody is expecting that.

"July has been a much better month than last year" - that sort of says they are well on their way to beating H2 last year but without seeing the way the year and the economy plays out in general they are being guarded - which any sensible co would imo.

28p eps before restructuring in H1 and a match of last years H2 alone would mean 34p approx.

PE under 7 on that basis no mater what analysts say imo.

CR

[everton448] 30/8/2009 08:48

Hi Nurdin - I agree with you, but I'm guessing that the Investec forecast is based on earnings after exceptionals - of course, strip those out and it looks as if earnings may well be 35 pence for the year (maybe more?)

[nurdin] 30/8/2009 08:34

Everton..that 23.12p is after the one-off restructuring cost.Ignoring that,diluted eps for H1 were at 28p.

Note the Chairman's comment:

''...It is still too early to
predict the outcome for 2009, but it does look to be an improvement on 2008 when
we had a poor second half. ...''

If earnings of 5.7p in H2 last year were 'poor' then Id expect them to do much better this year and my estimate of 7p for H2 will not be far off the mark imo.

[joe say] 30/8/2009 08:24

Normally broker forecasts are assessed after having met with the company.

All anal- ists are given the same info, and its up to them how they cut assumptions presented, both from an external economic perspective, as well as what management suggest will have within the control of the company itself.

Each anal-ist will also have his own take on both management, and their prior record of forecasting and will skew according to this.

Makes you wonder if some are awake at these meetings and exactly which planet they travel home to at night.

[everton448] 29/8/2009 17:32

ps Remember H2 2007 (by which time things were already turning down pretty sharply for them) they did 8.03p

[everton448] 29/8/2009 17:28

To be fair to the guy from Investec (and no, I don't work for them, I'm a divorce lawyer which makes me even less popular than brokers...)I think he's working from diluted earnings of 23.12p and factoring in 6.8p for the second half. I think he's being a bit conservative but at least there's a logic to the maths.
Everton

[nurdin] 29/8/2009 11:59

Unless I am missing something,that Investec forecast of 29.85p for the full year looks a bit daft.They have already done 28p in H1 and say H2 will be better than last year.

Last year they did 19.8p in H1 and circa 5.7p in H2,bringing the total to 25.5p.

Now if they are saying H2 will show improvement over last year then I would expect H2 earnings to be atleast 5.7p and with a bit of fair wind perhaps 7p.

Full year earnings should come around 35p as a minimum I would have thought,,20% above Investecs foecast

What am I missing?

[cockneyrebel] 29/8/2009 11:23

cheers jhingylen.

Still looks cheap to me too :-)

CR

[jhigylen] 29/8/2009 08:33

The Herald - 29th Aug


concludes ".....John Lawson at house broker Investec said operating profit per tonne had risen by 76% and over two-thirds of sales were in more resilient sectors. He has lifted his full-year forecast by £1m to £12m and lifted his price target from 200p to 260p."