British Polythene Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 28/8/2009 07:37

Well looks like they have done 28p eps in H1 before restructuring - that's the years forecast done in H1 by the look of it.

Typical of the CEO here his outlook is as ever cautious with:

"it is inevitable that the second half of
the year will not match the first half"

When you've done the whole year's eps in H1 nobody has been exprcting H2 to meet H1 ! :-)

Still playing things down imo but looks like baring a disaster in H2 they are going to be well ahead of forecasts imo.

Divi reduced but that has been forecast for a while.

Results much better than I expected for H1

CR

[recruiter] 28/8/2009 07:35

agreed, see no reason now why this shouldnt sail through to 300p by next results

[nurdin] 28/8/2009 07:33

They have already met full year forecasts in H1...that IS impressive if my reading is correct.

[recruiter] 28/8/2009 07:07

EPS good, divi cut - not so good, borrowing drop seems impressive

Highlights

* Profits before tax increase 26% to GBP9.1m (2008: GBP7.2m)
* Operating profits before restructuring costs up almost 50% to GBP13.7m (2008:
GBP9.2m)
* Diluted earnings per share before restructuring costs rose 31% to 28.05p (2008:
21.35p)
* Turnover GBP231.4m (GBP265.9m) reflecting reduced volumes and drop in raw
material prices
* Interim dividend per share reduced to 3.5p (2008: 7.0p) consistent with the
realignment of last year's final dividend to reduce borrowings in current
economic environment
* Net borrowings reduced to GBP55m compared to GBP76m at 31 December 2008
* 2009 outcome expected to show an improvement on 2008

[gswredland] 27/8/2009 15:23

Well let's hope they do rise on results tomorrow

[cockneyrebel] 27/8/2009 14:58

chart turning up again here by the look of it.

At least buyers are not looking at buying a stock on a high tomorrow when they read th results, stocks on a dip always look more attractive to buy imo.

CR

[s34icknote] 25/8/2009 23:08

whens results ?

[deucetoace] 25/8/2009 10:21

I'm trying to estimate what to expect from the interims. The Trading Statement said ahead of last year post exceptionals. Well last year was £7.2m PBT and 19.83p EPS so that would suggest 21p EPS this time around. The pre-exceptional figure will be more interesting. £2 million of exceptionals would suggest EPS of 26.5p or there abouts. This does suggest that the consensus figure of 32p for the the full year must be post-exceptionals and a pre-exceptional figure might be 37-38p.

My feeling is that fair value is around a PE of 8. I have had a target of 250p in mind but considering the pre-exceptional figure would give around 290p. I think we will know which one the market is interested in going for on Friday - of course the outlook statement will be important especially regarding raw material prices and whether they can pass on any increases. It could easily be a sell Friday morning but if not I'd expect a continued rise to just below £3 by mid-September.

[cockneyrebel] 24/8/2009 11:17

Thin order book today.

If you're a buyer and you ask your broker to put a buy order on the book a penny or two over the current bid you might get lucky.

CR

[gswredland] 21/8/2009 21:46

I wonder if we can hit 250 before results. Thought that would not have been possible a week ago.
That chart looks lovely

[cockneyrebel] 21/8/2009 17:48

Results next week - last chance to buy ahead of those next week too.

CR

[cambium] 21/8/2009 17:22

great........ no retrace

[gcom2] 19/8/2009 17:41

Pretty good day today.

[cockneyrebel] 18/8/2009 21:57

tommy, if polymer prices are rising like that then demand must be rising sharply imo in which case BPI must be even busier than I thought.

But surely if the polymer prices in $ rises 12% and BPI buy it in $ they are no worse off than a few months ago because the £ has risen over 10% aganst the $.

Polymer prices can't rise the same in all different currencies, that doesn't make sense imo.

But if it is rising it isn't down to dearer oil so it has to be down to greater demand imo.

CR

[henryatkin] 18/8/2009 21:40

tommy .... we could be turning a corner with companies starting to increase prices which in itself is a sign of confidence. Last month was the first month that producers raised output prices month on month. Input prices though are still falling. All a bit of a generalisation but the trend does seem to be changing. Also with lower GBP customers are unlikey to find cheaper from overseas supplier but BPI are in a good position to increase business and/or margings in European sales.

[tommydog] 18/8/2009 20:22

CR

Polymer is priced in all currencies. Whether BPI buy in $ or £ the increase will have to be absorbed, unless they increase their prices of the finished products to their customer base.

LDPE has a current cost price of approx £880 per metric tonne. So you can see how a £100/tonne increase for September will impact on margins. Also to keep you in the picture polymer suppliers are hinting of further increases to come for October.

[cockneyrebel] 18/8/2009 19:12

What raw materials are they and what percentage is that?

I cannot see how any meaningful rise will hold with the $ coming down and oil prices falling - just doesn't make sense imo.

Surely the raw materials are priced in $ too, not £?

CR

[tommydog] 18/8/2009 18:43

CR.

The price of oil maybe falling, but raw material costs are set to increase by £100 per metric tonne for September. Unless BPI increase their selling prices then margins will be hit.

[cockneyrebel] 18/8/2009 16:56

agree Henry - I'm in the country and all I see at the moment is hay wrapped in black or green plastic. If we are going to have to grow more of our own food that's good news for BPI imo.

Building sector has bottomed for sure, most builders reporting higher sales.

Retail sales will be up like for like from Q3, all that plastic packaging too and a stronger Christmas than last year.

Price of oil falling and the £ rising v the $ that must mean falling imput costs or very stable at worst.

All looks very good to me and as you say, very undervalued by any metric imo.

Suspect the buyers will be back tomorrow after nibbling late today.

CR

[eye2] 18/8/2009 16:45

someone left that one late. oh for L2 back. nice

[henryatkin] 17/8/2009 14:30

A rare market. The share price is in a rising trend, the company is fundamentally under valued by almost any measure and there is still a big pullback. Thats a combination that you don't often come across. In the countryside around me I see more and more pollytunnels and with £ low against Euro demand is high for British beef & consequent silage wrap. The agricultural sector of BPI is still very defensive. Building fabric is at a low but is it really going to get worse?

[shroder] 17/8/2009 14:10

That order book is thin, no wonder it pings around -

[cockneyrebel] 17/8/2009 11:48

Well judging by recent buying there's a lot that are going to want to pick up this dip before the results imo.

Inventory rebuild is going on all over the place and sales picking up for many - that's going to be boosting demand for plastic packaging to wrap all these goods. I think on top of the results that will be 'significantly ahead' as the company say, there's goingto be a better than expected outlook too imo.

I guess some are tempted to take profits after a decent rally but I'm holding - impossible to trade in and out with that chunky spread and with so little on the order book at times you ain't going to be able to buy any volume when you do want to buy back in imo.

Someone's picked up 215k @ 211p off of a seller today - mm's don't take that volume, that was traded broker to broker and pre-arranged so that's not adding to supply, it's still going to be tight imo.

Cr