British Land Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 13/11/2019 13:18

Looks to me like this share is headed much further down.

Overexposed to the wrong sectors.

Just fwiw I would apply at least a 30% discount to the bulk of their
retail portfolio. The current NAV discount that BL sells on that may be largely illusory imv.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[essentialinvestor] 13/11/2019 09:52

Yup, need for yield.

[propinv] 13/11/2019 09:49

Same boat here Essential. I suppose people want assets. In a world where people have lost faith in governments, not just UK but around world. People starting to wake up to implications for those governments debt. Where do you put money then? Real estate, Art, Cars, equities.

[propinv] 13/11/2019 09:36

Three waves up to 638p. If you are technical, fundamental, whatever way looking horrible

[essentialinvestor] 13/11/2019 09:05

Bought a very small amount only(primarily as a means of not forgetting this) which I will possibly add to
lower down. I'm cautious on markets atm and heavily in cash -
admittedly been significantly too cautious in positioning since early summer.

[shieldbug] 13/11/2019 08:54

Essential - I am a bit mystified why you would buy at that price? You don't seem to be long here so are you expecting a small increase here with a conservative win perhaps?

I was thinking of selling some to at buy at lower levels.

Agreed the buyback does not look at all good at this point in time. LTV is markedly up.

While the valuation of retail is down a lot the other metrics around retail don't look so bad.

[essentialinvestor] 13/11/2019 08:26

Had a very small amount under 5.64.

Retail looks ugly with a double digit valuation fall - and further to come imv.

Also think their buyback has been a disgracful misallocation of capital.
Debt should have been reduced further.

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2019 15:38

If they can trade through the next cycle without an equity raise
you can make a buy case - however that remains an if imv.

[outlawinvestor] 08/11/2019 06:54

Dividend payment today!

[stavros28] 28/10/2019 21:05

Sold three quarters of my position last week , could get a little more upside to £7.00 but will quickly sell off thats the top end valuation.

[outlawinvestor] 08/10/2019 12:39

From IG feed:

British Land Company : Credit Suisse cuts target price to 540p from 620p

[outlawinvestor] 04/10/2019 07:23

TOP NEWS: UK High Street Suffers Worst September In 8 Years

[outlawinvestor] 03/10/2019 10:17

JEFFERIES CUTS BRITISH LAND PRICE TARGET TO 424 (444) PENCE - 'UNDERPERFORM'



Any ideas behind their rationale?

[outlawinvestor] 03/10/2019 07:11

We are ex-div today!

[jonwig] 02/10/2019 07:19

FT comment:

British Land, which has a market capitalisation of £5.4bn, is funding work on the development from its own resources, but is likely to seek joint venture partners for future phases...

[shieldbug] 01/10/2019 17:38

Yes, there is a dose of theory to swallow with buybacks. Much better to have hard cash - either in the company or through dividends. Simplicity usually beats complexity.

The bought back shares 3 years consecutively and each time the average price dropped. Perhaps buybacks will turn out to be really clever.

[jonwig] 01/10/2019 15:18

shieldbug - yes, thanks. I was just finding it hard to reconcile a major program with a cash-consuming share buyback! The latter is done now, though.

[shieldbug] 01/10/2019 15:13

15 year program. Its not like they need to fund the whole lot in one go. First phase on site next year.

Haven't seen anything specific on financing Canada Water, but it would be no different to their ongoing program of developments. Some funds will likely come from 5 year plan to reduce retail from 45% to 30-35% of portfolio. 2021, 2022 and 2024 have significant debt maturity but other years are quite modest.

In the panel discussion of the recent investor presentation Grigg says that their instinct is to make a start on Canada Water unless something catastrophic happens with Brexit. At the same time he said he thought some of their competitors had been expecting a drop in the market and that they would be able to restock - but that hasn't really happened.

Have to wait and see how that plays out.

[jonwig] 01/10/2019 07:23

Yes - 15-year program over 53 acres. Financing??

[outlawinvestor] 01/10/2019 07:15

Planning approved! Sounds very exciting!

[shieldbug] 27/9/2019 16:51

News on Canada Water planning application next Monday. If its not delayed.

[shieldbug] 27/9/2019 15:46

If I understand this correctly - There are currently 929.5m shares - approx 105m shares bought back over 3 years. So there would have been about 1034.5m shares prior to buy backs. There are now 10% fewer shares in circulation. Not sure how many shares the management have awarded themselves in the meantime. Assuming it is negligable (which it might not be) EPS should have improved by 10%.

Of course in reality there will be less earnings because they sold £620m worth of properties to pay for the buy backs. Or these buildings may have been replaced with development in the meantime. (£620m is more than 10% of current market cap.)

In reality EPRA earnings dropped from 37.9p to 37.5p to 35p from 2017 to 2018 to 2019.

Of course not all of the money from property sales has gone to buy backs. They are also upgrading the quality of the portfolio which is important for future earnings.

[outlawinvestor] 27/9/2019 13:47

I should calculate it myself but wonder aloud how it has impacted EPS.

[shieldbug] 27/9/2019 13:19

£125m Buy back completed today

2019/20 - £125m
23,795,110 shares averaging 525p

2018/19 - £200m
33,672,430 shares averaging 594p 

2017/18 - £292m
47,607,139 averaging 630p  

All that lot is supposed to have improved NAV/share by more than 20p..