British Land Share Discussion Threads

[shieldbug] 15/5/2020 08:25

Article on Bloomberg - hxxps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-15/commercial-real-estate-s-coronavirus-survival-looks-like-wework

Emma Cariaga, co-head of the Canada Water project at British Land - "We are going to have to become almost a department store-type operator, allowing retailers and restaurateurs to come and go much more than we have historically. Our role as landlords is going to be a much more intensive one than it has been before."

[prunk] 12/5/2020 12:30

Why this drop?

[outlawinvestor] 12/5/2020 11:03

Terrible results from LAND got investors spooked.

[gekko27] 12/5/2020 10:52

Oh dear. Toast. Like the brexit self harming covid basket case the U.K. is in general.

[outlawinvestor] 01/5/2020 06:10

Unsurprisingly, people are now wondering if they need so much office space.

[nickrl] 19/4/2020 23:10

Another propco whose early door C19 RNS intimated issues ahead with rent collection but has yet to provide any further update. Finals due later in May but will the use FCA directive to delay releasing them and keep us further in the dark?

[shieldbug] 16/4/2020 08:49

To be fair BLND have been selling retail for a while. Perhaps not decisively enough and perhaps not always the right stuff. The company has been responding to (preoccupied with?) the trend towards flexible and co-working which has been massive. Ironically a lot of the flexible/co-working businesses are going to be smashed by the pandemic creating new opportunities for BLND to grow in this area. BLND were well ahead of LAND getting into this segment.

Three retail acquisitions the company has made in the past year or so are Woolwich, Tunbridge and New Bond Street Station. All of which look like good value, well located strategic investments.

Then there is the move into residential rental in Canada Water. I don't see housing prices fall significantly with all of the cheap money being pumped into the economy so rental will still be needed. Canada Water provides the opportunity for a significant period of income growth.

[essentialinvestor] 15/4/2020 13:42

ff, yes, however the flip side is a retail sector arguably under far more
pressure through migration online?.

It's retail that is weighing on this rather than office.

And to be fair BLND could have been more agile in spotting the trend change
and repositing their portfolio more aggressively away from retail.

The BOD are paid to navigate strategic direction.

[porsche1945] 15/4/2020 13:36

After 3.5 years of the impoverishing brexit sxxtshow that London has had to cope with (economy was always going to be poorer after brexit)this could not have come at a worse time, mass exodus of retailers and office. Talk now Hsbc exit from UK and being head quartered in HK is probably just the start, UK looking at another ten years of austerity to pay for this and was starting from an already flatlining economy and trashed currency. Better to invest in the S & P index rather that world dog Ftse 350. These and Land are toast.

[flyfisher] 08/4/2020 09:42

''Share price now similar to low point during the financial crisis in 2008.''

But both debt and cost of capital are about 45% lower now, debt servicing costs are about a third of what they were in 2009.

As commented by 1nferno, I don't see a need for a capital raise unless for the purpose of buying distressed assets.

[outlawinvestor] 02/4/2020 21:33

One wonders just how strong the future looks for retail and office RE. Clearly some tenants will not survive and many of those that do will be reviewing their future needs. Retailers will seek to maximise their online capability and the push for mostly/fully automated fulfillment will accelerate. Office space users will review how well they coped with WFH and push to ensure they can mostly/fully operate remotely - a big part of DR and BC planning for most orgs. At some point businesses will find they require less space. Oversupply looms together with a drop in asset values.

[1nf3rn0] 02/4/2020 15:23

I'm starting to nibble back into this and LAND. Certainly these two will survive. I'm wondering, they may not need to raise funds for defensive reasons, but would a rights issue be considered to go on the offensive - there will be some bombed out asset values over the coming months.

[hugepants] 01/4/2020 16:23

From last weeks update:
"Given our covenant structure across the Group, we could withstand a fall in asset values across the portfolio of greater than 50% without any further mitigating actions."

Share price now similar to low point during the financial crisis in 2008.

[shieldbug] 31/3/2020 16:14

GIC also own 50% of Broadgate. BL also work closely with Norwegian Soveriegn Wealth Fund (Norges Bank).

In my notes from June last year the major shareholders according to FT were:

Norges Bank - 5.14% - Norwegian Central Bank
Invesco - 4.61%
GIC Private Ltd - 4.35% - Singapore Sovereign Wealth
APG Asset Management - 4.02% - Dutch Pension fund manager
L&G - 3.68%
Blackrock Fund Advisers - 3.64%
Vangard - 3.46%
Blackrock Advisers (UK) - 3.3%
SSgA Funds Management - 1.92%
Morgan Stanley - 1.67%

Latest major shareholdings at hxxps://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=BLND:LSE

[flyfisher] 30/3/2020 10:29

Singapore took a stake recently through GIC.

[bookbroker] 30/3/2020 09:47

This is ridiculous cheap, doesn’t mean will not get cheaper, but sovereign wealth funds will look at the assets in companies like this, and say too good to miss. I appreciate the uncertainty, but last valuation put tangible book value of assetS at £9.00.

[jonwig] 29/3/2020 07:41

CEO interview:

[flyfisher] 19/3/2020 06:30

Several open ended uk property funds have gated this week, aberdeen, threadneedle, henderson, aviva, L&G and others.

I presume they have all recently had to sell anything that is liquid in order to meet redemptions.

[essentialinvestor] 19/3/2020 00:17

Over £600 million spent buying back shares over the last couple of years,
as mentioned previously it did not look a wise allocation of capital imv
and the priority should have been debt reduction.

[quepassa] 18/3/2020 09:25

The 12-month Business Rates holiday announced by The Chancellor is a big boost for tenants in such troubled times. And by extension for British Land.

For example, see today's RNS from Sainsbury's, whose Business Rate bill last year amounted to a whopping £567million.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 16/3/2020 09:10

Yes. Agree.

I don't believe that BL and Land have significant resi exposure, that's why I didn't mention resi.

I am more bullish on the prospects for PRIME office and believe Brexit will ultimately be beneficial for the sector with an increasing demand after an extended period of much uncertainty.

I am personally hopeful that PRIME office will weather the current virus storm crisis better than secondary/tertiary office.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[propinv] 16/3/2020 08:42

QP - would say there is 5. Resi being last.Think 2 of 5 are poor. Think people focus on retail, but office is going to suffer too. Good news is. Everyone is going to want assets.

[quepassa] 14/3/2020 09:46

One needs to look at the focus of their underlying estates and take a view which are better placed to prosper.

The four main sectors are

1.office,
2.retail/shopping centres
3.warehousing/logistics (for internet sellers especially)
4.industrial

Some of those sectors seem very promising. One of the sectors looks pretty bad.

Good Luck All.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP