British Land Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2019 16:42

Yes GPOR, edit!. - that's dyslexia - the gift that keeps on giving ).

[jonwig] 31/7/2019 15:17

Yes, agreed, there will be. (GPRO? GPOR.)

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2019 14:40

Jon, I hold a very small amount of GPOR intending to build a position
there through the cycle - their LTV is in single figures, 100% focussed on London
with low retail weighting - I can't make a case for buying it right now tbh.

Helical Barr are usually the smartest in the room - just look how
they navigated the financial crisis without resorting to a highly dilutive rights issue (which even Great Portland needed). HLCL NAV is well Above 2007 levels,
as is SHB and GPOR@ 5.94 ( 2007). 8.49 NAV at the 2019 H1.

Some nice opportunities will open up in this sector, worth watching at the very least.

[jonwig] 31/7/2019 14:11

EI - I've just looked at their 2007 AR. LTV (the thing I've stressed) was 41% at 31/03/07. Yes, their NAV was 1682p, but I think valuers were unprepared for the events to follow.

Now, I would think valuers are much more cautious and retail is not the central plank of their strategy.



March 2007 - everybody was asleep! I should have looked at 2008, '09, etc. but I haven't the energy. For now.

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2019 12:19

I'm highlighting their 2007 EPRA NAV @ 1682 a share,
to show just how quickly the market, and consensus, can change.

INTU, is that another black swan event?.

[ianood] 31/7/2019 12:03

Your high lighting the banking crisis during which time all assets were difficult to price and the bulk of the CDO's that were traded were property backed (not with good quality either). It's not called a black swan event for nothing.

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2019 11:47

Ian, really?, You must have a short memory when it comes to this sector
then. Have a little look at their 2007 Annual report.

BLND NAV is still very significantly under that level 12 years later due to a highly dilutive
rights issue, same applies to LAND on NAV.

Debt metrics looked hunky dory for both BLND and LAND in 2007.

[ianood] 31/7/2019 11:41

Have a tick jonwig :)

[jonwig] 31/7/2019 11:39

EI - buybacks increase eps. If they can borrow at (say) 3% and rent at 5%, there's a 2% free ride for the quity, hence increase in eps. So paying down debt would lower eps.

OK, you know all that, but I think it's their rationale. In 2007-09, propcos with a LTV above about 40% were distressed, LTV over 50% would mean takeover or death. BLND's LTV is 28.1%, so pretty secure.

They're also exiting pure retail pretty quickly.

[ianood] 31/7/2019 11:38

Group leverage 22%; consolidated 28% as at 31 March 19. I think they may know how best to manage both their banking relationships and the share price relative to NAV as one of the better UK REITS.

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2019 11:25

The buy back is a waste of money, REITS have an expensive habit of announcing buy backs just before the cycle turns, paying down debt should be the priority atm.

[shieldbug] 31/7/2019 08:22

Looks like Intu have some loans that are close to breaking covenant on LTV. Its creating panic selling. Combined with Brexit doom and gloom prices may stay low for some time.

[wogunremi] 31/7/2019 07:14

The whole sector is perennially weak. INTU is getting totally savaged today following results despite already falling more than 10% last week in anticipation.

[jonwig] 21/7/2019 17:06

A short position need not be a bet that a share price will fall! A pairs trade (long A, short B) is simply a wager that A will outperform B. The short is a hedge rather than a straight bet.

[ianood] 21/7/2019 15:57

It's actually fallen since December 18 when it was roughly 3.55% to 2.43% currently

[wogunremi] 21/7/2019 11:19

The shorts have been piling on of late [

[deanforester] 16/7/2019 17:16

Added to my holding today. I see that they were pushing the price down at that time witheir buy-back programme.

[shieldbug] 13/7/2019 08:12

There is a report on Hardman's website on IPSX - I particularly liked the paragraph - "An attractive venue for issuers: IPSX will generate wide interest among issuers. Just
one example illustrates this: we might see generalist REITs ‘spin off’ part ownership of an asset to demonstrate to the market that they deserve a smaller discount to NAV."

That of course could work both ways.

[wogunremi] 12/7/2019 10:45

Hardman & Co analyst talk about IPSX:

[jonwig] 08/7/2019 05:32

UH?

A) why on earth not? Maybe they're shareholders too. And even if not ...

B) If you're referring to ShareSoc, they are what they say they are.

[ericshunn] 07/7/2019 22:00

Nothing to see here. BL employees shouldnt be posting on this thread

[sharesoc] 07/7/2019 15:39

The British Land presentation from our recent company visit can be found in our members area here:

To access the presentation, you'll need to be a full member of ShareSoc, which is a not-for-profit organisation that supports individual shareholders and campaigns for shareholder rights. If you're not already a member you can join here:

Once you've joined, you'll receive an invitation to register for our "members network" private social network, from where you'll be able to access the presentation (and presentations on 100s of other meetings). If you're already a member and have any difficulty accessing the report, please do not hesitate to contact us here:

[shieldbug] 30/6/2019 08:49

British Land are one of the main backers of IPSX, the exchange for trading in individual buildings. It is said that they are about to place one of their buildings onto the exchange when it launches. This looks like a potential banana skin if it flops - especially if its a retail investment that no one wants. There was talk of it launching end of June earlier in the year but my guess this will be deferred past Brexit date now.