 Cheers CWA1. This is an encouraging paragraph:
"Braemar is positioned to outperform peers:
We think Braemar offers an attractive blend of exposure to global tankers, offshore and dry cargo shipbroking, and vessel sale & purchase. Core shipbroking is complemented by specialist financial services, supporting fleet restructuring and financing, and risk management for customers. The business model is asset light and flexible. The forward order book (>$80m) is at healthy levels and reasonably well balanced by business line and geography. The Group continues to drive consolidation of markets globally with targeted expansion of offices and desks, and tuck-in acquisitions.
Cash generation continues to improve, helped by low capex and low working capital intensity; liquidity headroom is sufficient to support our inorganic growth expectations. Braemar is responding well to the growing need for alternative fuels for decarbonised marine propulsion and offers carbon offsetting and compliance services. The operating margin, at c.12%, is competitive with the wider sector (including the main private operators) but lags market leader Clarkson (c.15%).
That said, Braemar trades at a c.45% PE and EV/EBITDA discount to Clarkson and offers a superior dividend (>5% yield vs. c.2.5%)." |
Zeus initiate research on Braemar...
Braemar BMS LN - Industrial Transportation Initiation: attractive valuation & business model but macro uncertainties abundant We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a target price of 330p (+25%). We think Braemar is good value and offers focused exposure to global maritime markets, where strong medium-term demand is supported by vessel shortages and energy transition requirements. Free cash generation and returns are healthy, and the dividend is well supported. Its business model is flexible and scaleable. Shipbroking markets continue to consolidate, driven in part by increased costs of compliance and regulation; Braemar is a consolidator with sufficient liquidity to accelerate inorganic growth. That all being said, the timing of an investment in Braemar might be an issue for some investors with multiple near-term tradesensitive uncertainties. Including Trump tariffs and potential trade wars, the pace of China’s economic recovery and sea lane disruption. Hence, we are confident that Braemar will meet our FY25E (year-end Feb.) expectations but there is risk of volatility in earnings for both Braemar and Clarkson (CKN, BUY, TP 4,500p) as we enter reporting season. The next trading update is due in March. |
Good read across from CKN's trading update today? |
Yes, XD today for 4.5p, pay day 13/1/25 |
I think ex-dividend today. |
So with this drift, does BMS become a takeover target? Hard to see of underlying reasons why such a drift, or am I missing some large elephant in the room? DYOR |
Braemar (BMS) Half Year 2025 results presentation - November 2024
Braemar CEO, James Gundy and CFO, Grant Foley present the group’s results for the six months ended 31 August 2024, followed by a Q&A session.
Watch the video here:
Or listen to the podcast here: |
I suspect Edison have their own method of calculating EPS which adjusts the reported figures, but it's impossible to determine this from their Flash Note this morning.
I've now seen Canaccord's new update too, and this has a forecast of 31.4p EPS this year, which would chime with the reported results and outlook.
They reiterate their 380p price target, and also see a 14p dividend. |
no way in hell imo that they make those fy eps estimates. They're running down massively at H1 diluted EPS was less than 13p, they're not doing 31p in H2 IMO |
Good H1 results today, with forecasts reiterated for the year, increasing order books as at 30th September and net cash up to £3.3m.
This despite a weaker dollar - although with a Trump victory this will likely reverse to BMS's benefit in this H2.
Edison reiterate 44.4p EPS this year, with a 14p dividend.
They summarise:
"Solid H1 driven by diversification, outlook robust
Braemar’s H125 results reflect a continuation of the successful diversification strategy that has been deployed for the last three years. Revenue was robust, up 1%, and operating profit increased 9%, highlighting operational leverage. Braemar’s underlying markets retain strong fundamentals that include increasing global demand and an aging global fleet; this bodes well for the future and is reflected in its robust forward order book. The company remains on track to achieve market
expectations for this financial year."
"As a result of the group’s trading performance and the increased confidence of
management, the interim dividend was raised 12.5% to 4.5p (H124: 4.0p). Braemar
ended the period with net cash of £3.3m, up 5% on the previous year, highlighting
the company’s cash-generative nature. The outlook for the group is encouraging,
underpinned by the forward order book that stood at $80.9m at the end of August,
(29 February 2024: $82.6m; 31 August 2023: $67.2m), which had risen to $85.8m
at 30 September 2024." |
SP up today after hitting a bit of a low over the last few days Hopefully somebody knows something we don’t. Trades were fairly modest too.
Don’t really see the outcome of the US election having much of an influence despite Trumps America first
Comments would be welcome |
Cheers pireric.
Worth noting that Edison still forecast 44.4p EPS this year (up from 39.6p EPS last year), rising to 47.7p EPS next year.
The divi also remains at 14p this year rising to 16p next year.
At 256.5p that's a P/E of 5.4 and a divi yield of 6.2%.
They have a valuation of 535p per share. |
Edison put out a note on Braemar #BMS today talking about how the tax rises on NI in the budget hurt forecasts. About £450k in FY25 and about £850k in FY26.
Fair enough.
But then they reduce their net cash forecast for FY26 from £8.3m to £1.5m. No reasons given. Talk about sneaky / ridiculous.
Eric |
Braemar (BMS) Half Year results webinar
Friday, 8 November, 1:00pm
Braemar CEO, James Gundy, CFO, Grant Foley and COO, Tris Simmonds will present the groups results for the six months ended 31 August 2024, followed by a Q&A session.
To attend, register here: bit.ly/BMS_H125_results_webinar |
Publication of HY25 Results
The Group will announce its results for the six months ended 31 August 2024 on Wednesday, 6 November 2024. In line with previous guidance, revenue for HY25 is expected to be not less than £75m (HY24: £74.9m), with underlying operating profit (before acquisition-related expenditure) slightly ahead of the prior year (HY24: £7.6m). The board remains confident in the outlook for the second half of the financial year and, in line with the Group's stated progressive dividend policy, expects to recommend an interim dividend of 4.5p per share. |
thanks, so BMS has not broken any laws, so on that basis, move on no? DYOR |
The gist of the FT article is that BMS has been a key player in the assembly of Russia’s “shadow fleet” which is used to export oil.
The activity was legal, however many of the vessels have subsequently been sanctioned and such business is said to be in the cross hairs of politicians now, including PM Starmer. |
hxxps://splash247.com/37-businesses-probed-by-uk-over-russian-oil-ties/ |
The BBC take on it : |
Thanks
Hitting SP
What’s the gist of it pls as behind paywall |
"How Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ gets its ships"
An FT investigation into the role of a British accountant, a London-based broker and Dubai companies in the acquisition of vessels |
BMS hitting the headlines.
Probably need to address the FT comments. Not always easy being quoted. |
Updated commentary from Master Investor FYI:
"Braemar (LON:BMS) – Confident And Resilient Outlook
This morning’s Trading Update for the six months to end-August, from the provider of expert investment, chartering, and risk management advice to the shipping and energy markets, declared that that the group had continued to trade well and in line with expectations.
The group expects that its first-half revenues will be broadly steady at £75m, while net cash has increased fractionally to £3.3m (£3.1m).
It is confident in the outlook for the remainder of the financial year and beyond, as it continues to benefit from its increasingly resilient and focused growth strategy.
The group’s forward order book continued to be strong at $80.9m ($67.2m).
We should be seeing the actual Interim Results being reported in the middle of November.
Indications are that the market is looking to the current year revenues of £153.2m, with operating profit of £18.1m.
Analyst Damian Brewer at Canaccord Genuity rates the group’s shares as a Buy, with a 410p Price Objective.
He is looking for the current year to end February 2025 to show adjusted pre-tax profits of £15.8m (£16.1m), with earnings of 32.3p (34.2p) and an increased dividend of 13.2p (13.0p per share.
The undervalued group’s shares are currently trading at around the 292p level and continue to hold strong attractions." |
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