Bp Share Discussion Threads

[penycae] 04/2/2015 15:29

Afternoon bracke! They'll be around soon.
I'm still waiting on that CAC long!

[bracke] 04/2/2015 15:25

Such wanton deramping!!! Where are you 'Thumbs Downer & Sidekick'

[penycae] 04/2/2015 15:13

Still in the uptrend on the longer tem charts, but the future doesn't look too rosey.
A lot will depend on the European markets now. If QE works, the run up might continue, but without outside intervention, things are starting to look toppy.
Don't fight the trend, or the chart patterns. I know a lot of people think charts are historic, and have no real relevance to the actual situation, but the patterns that they create are recognised, and believe you me, the 'putas love 'em.

[hellscream] 04/2/2015 14:37

gap-fill.. hows that for rigged!

[hellscream] 04/2/2015 14:21

This ftse7000 is looking unworkable.

[cfc1] 04/2/2015 13:55

I find this all utterly amaing...up 23 yeaterday and settled up 12 now the gain is only 4p....wtf? Its ridiculous and clearly manipulated

[cfc1] 04/2/2015 13:33

first time I disagree bracke..better news from US - they are reducing liability charges. good results Oil over 50 ..expecting a rise in 2nd 1/2 and divi maintained..just traders playing with the price
475 before 435!!

[optomistic] 04/2/2015 12:59

Hi bracke thanks...I'm not to a penny LOL

[bracke] 04/2/2015 12:57

Good day optomistic

I have it at 436.

[ih_500869] 04/2/2015 12:53

Buy BP at 448p
By Robert Sutherland Smith | Wednesday 4 February 2015ShareProphets

The New Year’s rapid increase in the BP (BP.) share price has been testimony to some old market truths; buy for book value and buy when the last man has heard the bad news.

Naturally, it is always hard to make the practical judgement to work out when that is. There is no fairy tale means of actually knowing when the bottom has been reached. No bit of technology like a submarine echo finder to tell you how far you are from the sea bed of ultimate value. That is what makes equity investing an art not science. Obviously expensive shares can get even more obviously overvalued and obviously oversold shares, as in the case of BP, can get even more oversold. It is, as always in the highly inexact science of share picking, a matter of judgement.

When I returned to the forlorn sight of the disappointing BP share price in December, the momentum still seemed to be downwards but there was obvious value in the asset backing and the dividend yield; provided the dividend was safe. The central message from this week’s statement covering the 2014 prelims is that the company’s managers have nailed their colours to the mast by stating that the dividend is a matter of first priority.

The share price was 384p when I last looked at it in December last. It is now - last seen – 448p. In making that 16% jump the share price has clearly broken out of a recent downtrend. That is encouraging longer term although it means the share price is full of profits short term and they tend to attract profit takers as they always have. Last December, the balance sheet had an attributable net asset value of $129 billion which the market then valued at around $105 billion; so the shares were then selling at a handsome discount to equity assets.

The prospective estimated dividend yield was then 6.7% and that looked safe given the cash flow cover and likelihood that the company could and would reduce capital expenditure as the price of crude had made some projects financially less attractive giving the potential for the release of more cash that could be put to dividend payment. I judged the shares to be attractive.

So after the pound rise in the share price are BP shares still attractive? Yes; above all because of the dividend and the commitment to its being a first priority and the fact that there is the cash flow to cover. The statement speaks of reducing capital spending. Moreover, at a time when there is talk of Shell or Chevron buying BP, its management knows that the BP dividend is important to big UK institutions.

In essence, at 448p a share, there is still asset backing and a good estimated prospective dividend yield on offer. I estimate the asset backing at the moment on the basis of the September balance sheet and current exchange rate as around 580p or so. The market consensus is to estimate a forecast dividend yield of 5.9% for next year and on a PER of 12.3. That equity, working off the September balance sheet, commands total assets of around 1200p a share, and that supports bid prospect calculations. These shares still look mighty attractive to me.

[optomistic] 04/2/2015 12:51

Is that gap down to approx. 435 bracke?

[bracke] 04/2/2015 12:22

The share price was unable to build on yesterday's gap and has dropped back into the ascending channel. A gap fill is a high probability.

[penycae] 04/2/2015 11:57

Morning all.
Nothing open at the moment. Made the rent on cable the last two days. Just waiting to go long on the CAC for an afternoon trade. Not right just yet.
Beautiful day here. Dog is flat out after this morning's walk. Trading less, but seem to be making it pay. That's how it should be - just another boring day at the office.

[hellscream] 04/2/2015 11:31

Not all bad we were this price when oil was 100$.

[cfc1] 03/2/2015 20:38

WTI over $52! expect another +psv push on the share price tomorrow AM!

[iggis] 03/2/2015 19:09

A funny thing happened on the way to the office this morning. I read that BP (LSE:BP.) (NYSE:BP) had released its final quarterly report for 2014 at 2:00 a.m. My still sleep-fuzzy brain thought, "That's quite odd." After a second round of Starbucks, I realized that I was reading an American press release. BP had actually released its report at 7:00 a.m. UTC.The BO share price opened on the LSE at 3:00 a.m., I mean 8:00 a.m., at 459.45, up 5% from yesterday's close at 437.70. The share price rallied to a high of 463.00 (up 5.8%), but that lasted only about 90 minutes, before it receded to a range between 445.00 and 450.00 until 10:00 a.m. 3:00 p.m. Somebody, get me another Starbucks! BP ResultsAlthough BP shares are still holding at 449.00, one can almost feel the general, uneasy feeling of energy sectors investors as they try to balance their concerns about the volatility of oil prices against BP's performance and its outlook for 2015. Here are BP's results in a nutshell.Reported production was 2,143 million boepd, down 5% from 2013, whilst underlying production was 2% higher than the previous year. The important thing to note is that BP increased production in higher-margin facilities, a trend that we should expect to continue.Although the fourth quarter, unarguably the most difficult quarter for oil producers during 2014, resulted in $4.4 billion loss, leaving BP with a full-year profit of $3.8 billion, down from $23.5 billion in 2013.Replacement cost profit for the year came in at $8.1 billion, down from $23.7 billion in 2013, due in part to a Q4 loss of $969 million.Cash proceeds from planned divestitures totaled $3.5 billion for the year.The board declared an $0.10 dividend per share.Net cash generated by operating activities deserves its own explanation for BP. The specter of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill still looms over the company. The report notes that "All amounts relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill have been treated as non-operating items." Nonetheless, they must be considered in any accurate analysis for investors. Investors must realize that when a company divests billions of dollars of producing assets, the company also loses the revenue generating ability of those assets.BP ResettingContinuing the conversation of the Gulf oil spill, BP may actually be realizing a silver lining. Though it will take BP much longer to recover from the impact of that spill than it has taken the U.S. Gulf Coast, liquidating assets has not only generated the cash the company has needed to bear the costs of the spill, it has, ironically, helped to put BP into a better position to withstand the current volatility of oil prices that have dropped to $55.00 per barrel.Launching from that platform (pardon the pun), BP has slashed its investment budget by 13% for 2015 in order to preserve the cash necessary to withstand the impact of sustained low-cost oil. In fact, analysts are in agreement today that, "Compared to peers, we believe BP has offered one of the most responsive outlooks to the lower near-term crude environment."That should be very good news for investors, because Bob Dudley told Bloomberg today that "It will be a long time before we see $100 (per barrel oil) again."

[bracke] 03/2/2015 18:56

cfc

I take little notice of what papers, brokers, etc say. I'm interested in the share price

The first target as I've previously posted is to break and hold above the Daily SMA 200. By the way I've just noticed it's being resisted at the Weekly SMA 200 at 454.

If it manages to break and hold above the Daily SMA 200 the target would be 475-480. If it reaches this level I will reasses

[cfc1] 03/2/2015 18:39

whats your target Bracke...I think BP is vvvv solid and under priced given what I heard In the press conference news. Dudley doing a great job.

[bracke] 03/2/2015 16:59

cfc

The last time it was above the Daily SMA 200 was end of July 2014.

The gap needs to be a breakaway gap which means volume is required to maintain the upwarf momentum. If volume is not forthcoming it will be a common gap and fill.

[cfc1] 03/2/2015 16:43

bloody hell bracke...that's a bit techie! But we have been nowhere near 463 for ages...whats the tech thinking breaking above the 50dMA?

[ih_500869] 03/2/2015 16:15

HL COMMENT (3 FEBRUARY 2015) Hargreaves Landsdown

BP has today announced Q4 and full year results. The headline-grabbing part is the maintained 10c dividend for the final quarter and the comment by CEO Bob Dudley, that "throughout the work to reset BP, the dividend remains the first priority within our financial framework." BP reported a loss for the final quarter, largely due to impairments on upstream assets as a result of the lower oil price. Their underlying Q4 Replacement Cost (RC) profit, stripping out these and other one-off effects, was $2.2bn compared to $2.8bn. For the full year, the outcome was a profit of $12.1bn compared to $13.4bn in 2013.
BP is now taking action to respond to the likelihood of oil prices remaining at low levels out into the medium term. Capital Expenditure of $23bn in 2014 will be lowered to around $20bn to conserve cash in 2015. This compares to earlier guidance of $24-26bn. The group has raised $4.7bn from divestments since 2013 and expects this total will reach $10bn by the end of the current year. Net debt at year end was $22.6bn, equivalent to gearing, on BP's definition of 16.7%, within the company's target range of 10-20% net debt to net-debt-plus-equity.

During the quarter, Upstream production was 2.2m barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), excluding Russia. This was 2.6% lower than the prior quarter, reflecting the expiry of the Abu Dhabi concession in Jan 2014. Excluding that, underlying production rose 2.3%. Production including BP's share of Rosneft's volumes, was 3.2m boe/d. Upstream RC profits slipped from $3.9m in Q4 2013 to $2.2bn in 2014. BP point out that in Q4 2014, oil prices averaged $77 per barrel, whilst so far, Q1 2015 oil prices for BP have averaged $48. Upstream profits for the year fell from $18.3bn to $15.2bn. Downstream, profits surged from $70m a year ago to $1.2bn, reflecting improved operational performance and the benefit of stronger marketing income. For the year, Downstream profits rose to $4.4bn from $3.6bn.

The contribution from Rosneft more than halved, falling from $1.1bn to $0.5bn in the quarter, with the full year outcome 15% lower at $1.9bn. BP had a difficult year with the drill-bit, only replacing 62% of reserves produced with organic discoveries, including its share of Russian reserves. Production in 2015 will benefit from two major new projects which came on stream in December 2014, Kinnoull in the North Sea and Sunrise in Canada. Four new projects are expected to start production in 2015.

Gulf of Mexico spill:
The effects of this rumble on, with multiple legal actions still underway or yet to commence. BP made the following statement:

"The penalty phase of the MDL2179 trial arising from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill is underway in New Orleans. In September 2014 the court issued a ruling on the first phase of the trial, including a finding of gross negligence and wilful misconduct by BP Exploration & Production Inc. BP strongly disagrees with these findings and has appealed. Regarding the second phase, the court ruled in January that 3.19 million barrels of oil were spilled as a result of the incident and found no gross negligence in BP's source control efforts The total cumulative pre-tax charge for Gulf of Mexico oil spill at end of 2014 was $43.5 billion. An additional charge of $477 million was taken in the fourth quarter reflecting increased provision for litigation costs and additional business economic loss claims and the ongoing costs of the Gulf Coast Restoration Organisation. As before, this overall charge does not include any provision for business economic loss claims that are yet to be received, processed or paid (except where an eligibility notice has been issued and is not subject to appeal by BP within the claims facility). At the end of the quarter the aggregate remaining cash balance in the Trust and qualified settlement funds was $5.1 billion".

Outlook:
BP said that it is taking further actions to reduce costs and manage capital expenditures as it tries to reshape cash flows to adjust to the lower oil price environment. Upstream it expects underlying production to be flat in 2015, with Q1 volumes rising over the previous quarter reflecting a higher volume entitlement under Production Sharing Agreements as a result of the lower price of oil. Downstream BP expect a weaker refining environment, but a gradual improvement in Petrochemicals.

Read more share research from Hargreaves Lansdown
All yield figures are variable and not guaranteed.

[bracke] 03/2/2015 15:28

A gap up today lifted the share price out of the ascending channel.

If it is going to break out to the 'sunny uplands' it will have to break and hold above the Daily SMA 200 at 463. Failure to do so is likely to result in a gap fill and back into the ascending channel.

[cfc1] 03/2/2015 15:16

this stock is set to break out!!! Great earnings good Russian dealing ....oil recovering and US getting more lenient...must smash thru 4.5 soon.