Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[secs in the city] 20/8/2018 16:17

Looking at Noble Energy, who have been quite successful, it costs them $2.90 to discover each barrel of reserves, and we are nearer to production (hopefully?) so should be worth more than that, especially since it flows at such high flow rates (they would be the envy of most). If there is a 60% recovery rate based on the existing resource in Intra Isongo, then Etinde will increase post IM6 from 290mmbbls to about 0.5bn mmbbls and our 20% share at even $2.15 (this was the farmout price - $250 for 40% or 116mmbbls so $2.15 a barrel) would be worth $215m plus $80m cash and $25m due divided by exch 1.285 and 327.5m shares gives 76 pence per share.

[cyan] 20/8/2018 13:51

Fair point Benjimun. Should be higher,....one hopes.

Perhaps the gas price number will be addressed in the conference call?

Hold recommendation from Shore Capital

[benjimun] 20/8/2018 13:49

Cyan,
Why are we always assumiing $2 a barrell in a non distressed seller/situation in a recovering energy market?

[cyan] 20/8/2018 13:40

Hi warbaby43. certainly way way north of 4p. I have argued 24p a share based , prorata ,on the overall 2014 farmin terms. Even if is half that ; 12p still takes us to 36p.

24p would take us to 48p.

I suppose its possible we could go as low as ...... 40-45p IF the second drill disappoints too.

However; if the next drill is succesful, 48p plus should easily be achievable, imo.

All guesswork. The conference call will be crucial to a better understanding of the numbers.

[cyan] 20/8/2018 13:32

"High pressure" for sure. Its whether the really deep findings add some value?

[warbaby43] 20/8/2018 13:31

And 31k barrels per day of liquids plus 167.5 mmscfd of gas all in shallow water, has to have a value of considerably north of 4p per share.

[hot_topic] 20/8/2018 13:29

"very leaky" - maybe the leak is not all doom and gloom :-)

[cyan] 20/8/2018 12:34

Must not forget the $25 m USD FID payments value to BLVN; £19.59 million Sterling; circa 6p per share.

So 18 p cash held now plus 6p FID to come; equals 24p per share before ANY value ascribed for ETINDE

[neilyb675] 20/8/2018 12:33

Rns was titled preliminary well result.

That indicates to me we get a follow up rns with further well results and data.

Tuesday could be interesting imvhpo

[cyan] 20/8/2018 12:29

Group cash balance at 31 December 2017 was circa $83.3 million = circa 19.93p per share;

Allowing for the very much reduced G & A; maybe 18p per share now?. circa £59million?

[5chipper] 20/8/2018 12:19

What's cash pile worth days?

70 million gbp?

[jordaggy] 20/8/2018 11:17

...and judging by the further decline in sp, someone has the memo about tomorrow!

[jordaggy] 20/8/2018 11:16

Some blatant insider trading went on. What will be done??? nothing!!!

[billytkid2] 20/8/2018 11:05

This stock always appears to be very leaky for major news. Once again we had a serious move down in price before the disappointing update was released. Given the share price performance on Friday and today I'm not expecting any significant positive surprise in tomorrows update.

[hot_topic] 20/8/2018 10:58

Just a thought but maybe we'll get an RNS tomorrow with test results - hence the reason for the delayed conference call.

[hot_topic] 20/8/2018 10:27

Also the next paragraph seems to indicate they have done some testing and maybe we will get some news on the reaults tomorrow:

"In light of the interesting gas show detected at 3,370 metres, the Partners agreed to deepen the target
well depth to 3,550 metres to facilitate collecting data from the 3,370 metre sand horizon, whilst also investigating another
prospect in the upper section of the Middle Isongo sands. As both the pressure and temperature at this depth are higher than
the well was originally designed for, the downhole design was reconfigured accordingly."

[oilretire] 20/8/2018 10:24

Rig would probably handle it, the well design couldn't. Be a very interesting update tomorrow, hopefully a bit of good news from the data set.

[hot_topic] 20/8/2018 10:18

Just been reading the RNS again and the last sentence in the following paragraph stands out:

"The well reached a total depth of 3,550 meters. The original planned target depth was designated as being 50 meters of shale
below the lowest sand horizon in the 310 Intra-Isongo sand package. This was estimated pre-spud at 3,340 meters. The
lowest sand horizon within the 310 package was slightly deeper than expected and a revised target depth was set at 3,375
metres. However, at 3,370 meters a previously undetected sand body was encountered associated with a significant gas show
resulting in a pressure spike to higher than well design tolerance."

Am I right in understanding that they had a 'significant gas show' in the deeper 310 but that this was associated with a pressure spike higher than the well (and I assume the rig) was designed for and therefore had to suspend operations due to the dangers involved. If that is the case then although the shallower 510 was a disappointment the much deeper 310 could be significant: Maybe they are trying to obtain a better picture of the 310 - hence the delay in the conference call. Anyone else with any views on this? HT

[warbaby43] 20/8/2018 08:18

Guns, yeah am aware of Fleet Status Report and, indeed, have posted links to it previously and here it is again:



What I was alluding to was this on 31st Jan:
"Vantage Drilling International (“Vantage” or the “Company”), announced today that it has entered into a contract with New Age Cameroon Offshore Petroleum S.A. (“New Age”) for its premium jack-up rig, the Topaz Driller, to perform drilling services in Cameroon for 150 days."

Contrasted with this on 26th April:
"Vantage Drilling International (“Vantage” or the “Company”), announced today that it has entered into a contract with Total Gabon (“Total”) for its premium jack-up rig, the Topaz Driller, to perform drilling services in Gabon for an estimated term of nine months with additional optional periods"

Presumably, with the goodwill of Total, some time frame shunting has gone on and the 150 days have been extended but very possibly at some compensation cost.

Meanwhile, what continues to puzzle is the 150 days, given the expectation of 100 of those days being allocated to IM-6. However, reasonable to assume, given the relative closeness of the dates,that Vantage's negotiations with New Age and Total would have overlapped so flexibility might always have been built in. Hopefully, though, tomorrow will clarify and we will learn how long IE-4 is expected to take.

[gunsofmarscapone] 19/8/2018 23:19

Warbaby,

Drilling contractors normally have a fleet status report, it’s not really connected to rns releases or other sources of company info.

[warbaby43] 19/8/2018 16:40

"Total have the Topaz Driller after IE-4, we do not have extension options" - true and while the Vantage announcement of their Total contract did mention "options" there was none such in their New Age release.

Am sure Tuesday will clarify that as well, hopefully, as finally nailing the question whether SNH have renounced their 20% back-in option and BLVN really do have a 25 and not 20% stake in Etinde.

Incidentally, there was no obligation on the BLVN management to host a Conference Call, so full marks to them for doing so and making themselves available to provide some answers to the stack of questions that Wednesday's RNS has triggered

[cyan] 19/8/2018 16:00

"should the second drill also turn up a duster, does that mean they will have two more attempts at finding some oil in Cameroon before having to come to the market again looking for cash"

We have a huge discovery already. I think you are new to this share?

1retirement. CEO said this at the start of the two drill appraisal;

"Eli Chahin, CEO of Bowleven said: “The appraisal program, for which Bowleven is fully carried, aims to further improve the already robust economics for future development......"

We have "robust economics" with our present known discovery data.

BLVN , imo, will not be raising funds; they have a commercially viable field they will sell at the earliest date after the wells data has been crunched.

[1retirement] 19/8/2018 13:39

Slip, so at what point do you think they will have to go back to the market for funds? Thats if the second drill is also a duster and the share price continues to fall, to leave a raise until after more bad news could be catastrophic to current holders?

[gunsofmarscapone] 19/8/2018 13:04

Total have the Topaz Driller after IE-4, we do not have extension options. I haven’t yet found it on Marine Traffic, anyone else had issues?

[slipanchor3] 18/8/2018 16:14

1retirement

If Nigel Somerville is stating each drill costs 40m then we pay 25% =10m leaving 30m from the 40m carry to spend on IE4.