Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[d1nga] 12/9/2018 15:26

17773 may have been better had you posted first thing this morning

just sounds like made up bollix now the price has moved

[rm137] 12/9/2018 15:26

An often quoted rule of thumb for a cost effective LNG project is more than 2TCf. This figure will s sensitive to demand predictions and supply global supply, and given the number of 20plus TCF discoveries, it’s likely that projects of less than 5TCF would need some form of ‘edge’ to compete on a global market. That edge might be the liquids yield, or a government incentive, or access to an existing LNG facility, or low well costs, or high individual well rates.

so, at 1TCF what ‘edge’ does Etinde have? Certainly not low well costs at $50MM plus per well. Well rates are pretty standard. Liquid yield is OK, but not stellar, and not tested long term which is the critical factor, government will not be providing a subsidy - more likely the reverse, requiring carry. So, the only edge for an LNG project is export to existing LNG facilities locally, I.e. Bioko, relying on cross-border agreement ..... so likely to be protracted. All this means that LNG options have always been challenging, and unlikely now to achieve monetisation in the next few years.

In contrast, a gas to power scheme with the benefit of liquid offtake is, and has always been, rapidly achievable. The technology is standard, modular and can be started up with one or two wells and added incrementally. The challenge to this approach is return. A power scheme will need to compete with local Cameroon hydro generated power, so the returns will be marginal but there is no reason why a price for either gas or power could not be negotiated against a clearly defined project. In practice, the price negotiation will require the completion of project FEED. So at best, starting after IE-4, you’re looking at at least 1year to complete FEED.

These are realistic time frames with a following wide and goodwill from Cameroon; in practice, any local issues will only move the project schedule to the right.

[dianecarberry] 12/9/2018 15:17

No comment.

[dianecarberry] 12/9/2018 14:56

Reports of a drill problem last night. Still to be resolved.

[gunsofmarscapone] 11/9/2018 11:59

Ramayer, probably too over pressurised for a gas re-injection project, IM anyway. I’m on min holdings now here, beans really.

[warbaby43] 10/9/2018 12:52

Unless the JVP meeting in Cameroon was about strictly operational matters, its location would seem to indicate that SNH were also involved with development options being very possibly on the agenda.

In that regard, while there have been assertions that the FLNG project evaporated with S Lowden's departure, the Government might well be most reluctant to see that development option removed given the song and dance made over it so very recently (eg see posts 17353 and 17369)

While much may depend on what, if anything, IE-4 comes up with, I would again suggest that given the fertiliser project appears to have died (probably of just the sheer frustration of embarking on such a large scale idustrial development in Cameroon)and that there appears to be no present plans to construct a 300MW power plant, the government might agree to waive for an agreed period the 500bcf/70mmscfd requirement if that provided life support for the FLNG project.

This, of course, does again beg the question of just what flow rate and resource size is required for an FLNG project - minimum 200 mmscfd + 1TCF?

Meanwhile, if anyone does have info contrary to my assumptions on the Ferrostaal project and the power plant, I would welcome the correction.

[slipanchor3] 09/9/2018 11:05

Looking forward to hearing the outcome of the joint venture discussions that took place in Cameroon last week, we should at least find out the designated path forward for the exploitation of Entinde. That's assuming of course that discussions haven't spilt over into this week.

AIMVHO DYOR
GLA

[slipanchor3] 07/9/2018 19:40

Results of IE4 still many weeks away but other news could be in the pipeline for the not too distant future.

[ramayer] 07/9/2018 09:05

Could gas re-injection be back on the cards ?

[gunsofmarscapone] 03/9/2018 12:01

nicobellic

Its probably just the usual PI LTH Stockholm Syndrome, its unavoidable for most; protecting the very people who are responsible for the loss of horrendous amounts of capital.

If more PI’s exercised a little patience in buying shares there would be a lot less unhappiness but there you go.

[bakero] 02/9/2018 19:36

That is quite a difference to be fair

[kbrook] 31/8/2018 16:17

RNS we have spudded( is that a word?) anyway nice rise today

[cyan] 31/8/2018 12:34

Hello , hello , hello. What's going on here then?

Looks like a move towards a more realistic valuation. Plenty of upside to get to 50p

[gunsofmarscapone] 31/8/2018 12:33

Off we go, Northward bound!

Nevertheless having done some research I am not comfortable with my holdings here for ethical reasons. The Anglophone versus Francophone dispute is very unpleasant ie South Cameroons issue and I don’t want to continue holding beyond six to nine months.

Not trying to be virtuous just safeguarding my p/f from that angle. I sincerely hope that the real Cameroonian people benefit from the forthcoming economic boost, I have a few friends from this region; very open and generous culture!

[kbrook] 30/8/2018 14:24

Well said Welshski, but don't forget that Winnet really wants us to do well out of this, that's why he reappeared after the drop!

[welshki] 30/8/2018 10:39

Ahhhhh, the infamous winnet.....I see since your break from ii you still haven’t increased your intellect, credibility or integrity.......as displayed by yet another bitter, misleading and frankly quite pathetic post, have you still not managed to let this one go yet?

Could you explain how it was COC that put all their eggs in one basket please? What other potential “baskets”; did they have......answers on a postcard please?

Correct me if I am wrong (actually you will still try do that if I am right as facts and the truth never seemed to matter to you) but KH made bomono commercially unviable did he not? or in your head was it COC that took 90million of your money instead of the 15 million stated and then tried to set up a farmout that ensured BLVN investors would not see a return on that investment for 30+ years? By the way, why did you never criticise KH for that or any of the below?

And also what do you think of KH acting illegally and keeping the bomono results and numbers away from shareholders until he had to release them in order to try and complete an extremely poor farmout, which let’s be honest was a last ditch attempt to save his job?

Kenya.......where did that 500 grand go?

Sapele.......COC too right?

And when KH was in charge he promised to put some of that Etinde cash to work acquiring assets and even in one of the worst oil industry downturns on record he didn’t make a single investment, just let that cash sit there doing nothing apart from grossly overpaying himself and his bloated team, is that a potential “basket” of yours?

Etinde farmout terms were set in 2014 when the oil price was $100+.....KH farmout Etinde for about 40 cents a barrel.......what are your thoughts on that front?

So in summary your spiteful, bitter, infantile and completely misleading post really has absolutely no basis in reality unless you can show us otherwise, unless next time you want to try using something called the “truth”?

[aalanani1] 29/8/2018 18:03

Warbaby3 and Slipanchor3, you're both spot on, nothing new in Bioko nor Golar Hilli. The obstacle to pursuing these paths for the last 2 years was NewAge (Steve Lowden) who were financially and emotionally invested in the FLNG project. The bigger picture here was to prove the reserve base up and plug the FLNG project into the grand plans the Chinese (Hopu is a NewAge shareholder) had for West Africa gas. This path is now firmly off the table, so the JV partners are actively exploring the previous (more more viable and easier to execute) options.

[warbaby43] 29/8/2018 17:27

aalanani1, many thanks for the response and, as I recall, the Marathon option was posited pre COC and the FLNG project, so unless there was then absolutely no meeting of minds between the parties it can be picked up again at what is now a much more positive time for the gas market. Main point is to have options and not just be over a barrel with one.

Thanks too slipanchor3 for keeping us up to date on the Topaz activity - much appreciated. Meanwhile, place your bets now for a Monday spudding RNS?

[slipanchor3] 29/8/2018 14:50

aalanani1 can't understand why they wanted to build a vessel in the first place with plenty of spare capacity on the GOLAR and Bioko island facilities.
If my memory serves me right SNH preferred the Equatorial Guinea option so there must have been some heated politics involved.
IE4 update, been quiet out there for the last few days but there now appears to be a couple
more offshore vessels joining the operation so the spud may not be too far away.

[aalanani1] 29/8/2018 11:45

slipanchor3, my understanding is that although Lowden's departure has been in the works for some time, his fate hinged on the success of the appraisal well program and proving that the reserves can sustain an FLNG. This plan had the support of the Chinese who are significant shareholders in NewAge and the company was wedded to it. I understand that BLVN and Lukoil were pushing for a plan B, but it was difficult to move on any other front while drilling results were pending.

The results from the first well have now all but ruled out the viability of the FLNG, which triggered Lowden's departure and in my view sets the stage nicely for closer alignment between the JV partners on other commercialisation paths.

Warbaby43, I believe that Bioko is only 20-30km from Etinde, so definitely the close, but building a pipeline and pumping gas through it would necessitate a bilateral investment treaty with Equatorial Guinea.

As for Golar Hilli, there is plenty of ullage. The thing was built to produce up to 2.4 million tonnes p.a, but only has feedstock for half that amount from Sanaga. I think on those basis, it should also be feasible to build a pipeline to send gas 100 km or so to that facility.

I stand by the view that although the appraisal well program was below expectations, it will allow the JV to firm up the large and valuable resources already in the ground and move forward. From my perspective, BLVN is incredibly undervalued. Today's market cap is made up of cash + FID, and my conservative valuation of the existing resources is at 28p. That puts the stocks fair value at 55, implying an +80% upside!

Guys, let's not lose sight of the important facts. For those of you who were on the investor call, you will recall that management has acknowledged that it is actively pursuing alternative commercialisation options, so FID is still a near term event that can materialise post the final appraisal results. Crown Ocean, New Age, and Lukoil are very eager to monetise this lucrative field soon regardless of recent drilling results.

[winnet] 29/8/2018 09:41

Just popped in.

Not looking good is it. COC's strategy to put all their eggs in one basket has backfired dramatically. Whoopsie!

I hate to come back and tell you all i told you so, that would be bad form, so I wont.

GL to all the hardened LTH's here. I really hope that something comes of this mess.