Bovis Homes Share Discussion Threads

[brummy_git] 17/3/2017 10:11

Even at 915p, Bovis shares are still only trading on a 1.2x Price/Book multiple, compared to a circa 1.6x average for the broader UK housebuilding sector

[wad collector] 17/3/2017 09:53

I like to see shorters having to close positions if they are paying above their buying price!

[1gw] 16/3/2017 16:00

And Clinton Group below the threshold on 14th March, reducing to 0.48%.

Just Worldquant left on the disclosed shorters list now.

[1gw] 15/3/2017 16:17

Disclosed short positions.

I see Millenium took action on 13th March and reduced their short from 0.52% to 0.23%

That still leaves Clinton Group and Worldquant with positions above the 0.5% threshold:

0.81% Clinton Group
0.82% Worldquant

[brummy_git] 14/3/2017 16:35

IMO, a deal is going to get done, since several of Bovis' big shareholders want something to happen.... The only problem for potential interested buyers, is that by showing their hand first, then they will probably just act as a stalking horse for someone else to come in and win the day.

This is where occasionally very good advisers are worth their salt

[shaker44] 14/3/2017 15:18

I agree Wad. Very hard to read the tea leaves on this. If the 9/4 passes with no bid, will they drop like a stone or will they retain a bid premium now the cage has been rattled? Or if GT announce a pullout sooner...
Tempting to hold on for more but would hate to see it test 800 again.

[phillis] 14/3/2017 11:41

xd 30p next week

[nickg2] 13/3/2017 21:21

Is that really a £700k purchase after 5pm?

[wad collector] 13/3/2017 15:26

Hard to know whether to bank some profits now; it could all collapse back down again but no-one wants to miss a bigger profit. Think I will hedge a bit and set some limits for a third of them. 925 looks a reasonable ambition ; sell and regret?

[shaker44] 13/3/2017 14:26

I agree. Totally irrelevant now.

[9degrees] 13/3/2017 14:15

andrewsmith3 why dig up old news this was early january - times they are a changing .
Get up-to-date please

[1gw] 13/3/2017 14:00

Which is perhaps partly what provides the upside here - how many short positions have been taken out on the back of those problems?

[9tintin] 13/3/2017 12:55

Cashed my chips @£9.19

Balance of risk & reward I'm not sure how much higher this will go.

A profits not a profit until it's in the bank as they say.

Good Luck to all those holding for a better offer

tintin

[9tintin] 13/3/2017 11:43

Resistance at £9.15

Think it's running out of puff.

tintin

[1gw] 13/3/2017 10:45

Bovis short positions - just to back up my comment on there maybe being short positions to unwind.

Disclosed shorts are just over 2% according to the Short Tracker / FCA spreadsheet, while according to the Euroclear data there were an average of 6.5m shares (getting on for 5%) out on loan in February.

Now it can't be very comfortable holding a short position in a company that may potentially go to auction with 2 declared interested parties.

[1gw] 13/3/2017 10:21

Who knows - depends largely I think on whether RDW and GFRD want to compete for it and whether anyone else throws their hat into the ring - maybe a Chinese builder?

There's also a string of positives that might suggest there's still room to run with most of the housebuilders:

unemployment levels at all-time low;
interest rates are favourable;
plentiful supply of mortgage products;
stable sales and cost inflation.

(all these points taken from Crest Nicholson's January full-year results announcement)

Plus I think to some extent the housebuilder shares are still recovering from the brexit bashing, there could be short positions to unwind and M&A is perhaps only just getting started.

And then there's the Bovis discount for sustained under-performance, which perhaps has been at least partly unwound with this morning's rise, but maybe there's more to come on a re-assessment of the Bovis potential under new management.

[mike24] 13/3/2017 10:03

can't see to-days price holding,
with a hard brexit in prospect,
labour/material costs rising,
discounts on London flats,
btl's cashing in,
rate rise on the horizon,

[9tintin] 13/3/2017 08:36

No matter what BVS BoD might want,in terms of a take out price the institutions will be leaning on them hard to compromise - the fact that GFRD's offer was all shares means there is room for them to up the ante - I could see an offer somewhere in the region of £9.20 all share deal getting the nod.

Think this will be quicker than I originally thought.

tintin

[1gw] 13/3/2017 08:11

I've picked up some at 908p. Above the GFRD proposal so hoping that the GFRD price will benefit to bring up the value of the proposal, as well as hoping Redrow (or someone else) provides some competition.

[9tintin] 13/3/2017 08:06

That's a surprise £9 at the open

Maybe this has legs.

tintin

[manics] 13/3/2017 07:56

Called to open +5%.

[chinese investor] 13/3/2017 07:52

A Tenner For Mine...Not A Penny Less !

[9tintin] 13/3/2017 07:50

In any T/O deal, there has to be a margin for the offeror, therefore I think even £9.50 is being extremely optimistic.

Interesting to see what the market makes of this - of course it's possible a third bidder might emerge if it looks like there is more value in BVS hiding somewhere,,,,,,,,,,,,, LOL

tintin