Bluejay Mining Share Discussion Threads

[perfect choice] 29/7/2020 08:01

Understood alibx11, agree the route JAY has taken has hardly been straight forward and events have changed despite statements made. RTIT seems to have gone on the back burner now, although it was "the plan" so management have had to change track and now working with this "multinational commodity trading firm who are also a major ilmenite market participant" whoever they are. Now until this "definitive purchase agreement" is completed events could well change again, we just don't know for sure. Dundas has certainly been derisked in my books but it's not "certain" yet.

Rampair, thought the Project Description for the SIA is still valid and part of the current consultation for Dundas, so the wet plant + dry plant approach is all that is anticipated actually at Dundas, then the ">99% clean ‘premium ilmenite product’" and "a ‘standard ilmenite product’" would be shipped out. That was seen as straight forward low risk construction I thought?

[rampair] 29/7/2020 00:56

Personally I think that as the shipping from Greenland was pretty much wholly completed by the American contractors, I hope to goodness that we don't have to build a big separation plant at Pituffik - the cost of Arctic building & particularly on permafrost
Is horribly costly.(Pituffik is rock but we will have plenty of melt water to deal with)

Maybe a boat based unit will be a good idea that can then supply the tender vessels to take away processed ore.

Look up Norilsk-Talnakh and their two recent fuel spills into rivers in Siberia, when permafrost goes - I would not like to have to build a plant on it.lets hope the process ship route is chosen. It was mooted in the early days.

R.

[alibx11] 28/7/2020 23:08

Hi PC, I wasn't quoting your post as a "you were wrong then" or the like please don't take any such impression.

I meant there has been 2 placing since the 22p issue not since your post.

I stated it to show that "we" (not just you) have been led to believe that funding was in place and misled by management before and we all made our choices and quoted RM for example only to be found out we were incorrectly informed, or the situation changed which required further funding.
We were told that the RTIT sample was being processed in 2020 which is now going to be 2021, if I remember correctly, so given that all the hype about an easy RTIT deal or buyout sort of faded, indeed we were were told offtake agreements were well under way with multiple parties, but given we still haven't got the exploitation license that may be a factor.

I'm not focusing on placings I'm merely stating that anything can happen as we don't know what lies ahead and what the management will have to do or intend to do.

But I do think that the prices quoted are overly optimistic.

Situations change constantly and we don't know whats ahead, I do hope it's positive as I've been in here since before the 22p placing and still waiting for the promised land... :)

[lovewinshatelosses] 28/7/2020 22:32

This is where meaty management buys (from own pocket) can make such a difference to sentiment though PC, especially on AIM. Sure, still no guarantees, but if you saw three or four employees declaring even just £10-20k (or ideally more of course), you would naturally feel an alignment. Agree with broker change suggestion - sometimes you just need to try something different.

[lovewinshatelosses] 28/7/2020 22:18

True enough; no amount of faith in any asset would offset that! 😀

[perfect choice] 28/7/2020 22:12

Yes that H&M research paper was an excellent piece of work summerfield1 and is well worth a read at 82 pages long as well. I too would like to see share price Angel replaced as I am disappointed by the quality of their research notes, maybe one day they will.

Things are certainly not black and white alibx11 but in my books the only reality that counts is what has actually happened. On that note I too have been disappointed with progress and especially the over ambitious timescales declared by management as other have, but in 2019 I noticed a more cautious approach to not give out dates and in terms of that 40,000-tonne ilmenite-bearing sand bulk sample exercise in 2019, they actually achieved what they said for a change. Nicks1981 own research paper is certainly speculation not fact and he has explained his logic as to those valuations he predicts but whether they are achievable is the question.

You seem to be focusing on placings as a possibility of something which may happen to change things which by nature is also speculation just as Nicks1981 article is. Assuming nothing is going to change, or could change is what I would say, is correct but that applies both ways either negative or positive. Who is to say there will not be a takeover approach at an attractive price tomorrow which would give an immediate return to share holders - its speculation! There are many possibilities we can consider but its the actual probability of them happening which actually matters.

Don't know why you had to go back several years to find a post I made on placings but let's just correct that. Yes back in October 2018 (well done for finding) I did rubbish the idea of a placing back then (not ever) and made several posts on that point which subsequently proved to be correct. If you read posts around that time you will see it was in response to the publicised views of a certain well known share punter (with a few sidekicks) who was claiming JAY was running out of cash at a high burn rate of £1M a month and needed a placing. Yet the company also at the time under interview (can still be seen on Proactive Investors 3rd Oct 18) had stated its burn rate was around £140K per month and subsequent published accounts (and the fact JAY did not run out of money!) which showed the £140K/month figure was about right and the speculation was incorrect and way wrong at £1M/month. Now that is what I call incorrect speculation.

You also refer to 2 placings being made since my post 4728 in October 2018 which is incorrect. Looking through the RNSs you will see JAY raised £11.5M(before costs) at 11p in November 2019 and prior to that it was £17M at 22p back in February 2018. You also mention "plus the Greenland Gov etc all taking a slice of the pie" as if it was separate exercise to the announced fund raises done by JAY, but it was actually part of the Nov19 £11.4M fundraise, being £4M by the Greenlandic and Danish Government investment funds and £7.5M as a firm placing. Maybe when you said 2 placings you managed to go back to my first ever post on JAY which was on the 1st Feb 18 (2366), which just happened to be the day before that £17M fundraise at 22p. I hadn't even started investing in JAY at that time. Apart from options awarded and payment in-lieu of fees they are the only 2 main placings to generate funds I'm aware of by JAY and considering the time which has elapsed that's decent cost management control.

Its seems JAY has been plagued by speculation on placings when they just haven't been a risk a shown in 29/5/18 and 20/3/19 speculation statement RNSs the company has had to issue. That speculation has been way wrong as has been proven since by only one placing taking place since those RNSs, namely the last November 2019 fundraise.

So happy to speculate what may happen either way good or bad, but more sensible to discuss what is at least likely to happen, not create scenarios way off expectations. As quoted in the 14/4/20 RNS "Bluejay now has a cost base that ensures that the Company is viable for up to four years if necessary, without the need for a capital injection, with the exception of mine construction finance for the Dundas Ilmenite Project, which would traditionally occur with a firm offtake agreement."

Now it would take a signifiant change of circumstances to change that. So I'm expecting the financing of Dundas may require some element of share issue or placing on top of any off take funding or secured project financing but we will not know the real answer to that until later this year and after the cost optimisation exercise is announced around October (see latest interview). If JAY also reach a partner earn-in agreement for Disko then currently anticipate that earn-in will fund drilling activities which will not be until 2021 anyway now. Now JAY want to go it alone on Kangerluarsuk as their own project so that drilling cost will be solely JAYs expense but again not due until 2021 now.

So in the mean time lets get back to what we are waiting for which is progress on the Dundas exploitation licence and public consultation ongoing. Couple of quiet months on that maybe right now while the consultation and meetings progress, but speculating we should get news on a potential Disko partnership before then or that is my hope right now. And just to put a bit of "reality" into this, there may be no partner announced of course and the exploitation licence may not be granted or significantly delayed! We shall see what happens.

[luffness] 28/7/2020 21:57

There is a big difference in having reservations about management competency and believing they are out to screw you over.If you believe the latter why would you invest

[lovewinshatelosses] 28/7/2020 21:51

Ideally one would have faith in both the product/asset and the management - but if you think the asset is ultimately still worth the risk of a questionable management team, then some will roll the dice accordingly. I have been very critical myself at times and I think it has been justified. The team had a less tarnished record at the time I first invested here! I hope they will be able to get this over the line, thus hopefully rewarding investors here. Whether they will be able to maximise value is another matter, but a satisfactory outcome will do if needed. That IMO will probably be well short of two quid, but I will be thrilled to be wrong of course. Criticism so far is absolutely justified. GLA.

[luffness] 28/7/2020 21:25

Suggesting that you shouldn't invest in companies where you dont trust the management is simply good advice - why would you do otherwise?

[summerfield1] 28/7/2020 19:22

The one piece of research to be relied upon is from Hannam&Partners. They might be advisers to the company but they have a superb reputation in the mining sector. It is extremely frustrating that Jay has failed to replace share price Angel. The Company needs a mainstream corporate broker but the CEO will not listen.

[alibx11] 28/7/2020 18:55

I'm still invested bbb.

And your right things aren't black and white... thats my point... there are so many uncertainties in coming months and years that we cannot just take the posts about 70p and 250p by 2025 without question.

Anything and everything can happen from here, just basing a share price prediction on above calculations assuming nothing is going to change the business model and direction is just wearing blinkers and asking for disappointment, we've all seen enough stalls, delays, over ambitious deadlines, etc.

I think a dose of reality is needed.

[moreminer] 28/7/2020 18:44

BBB, Wise words. Ugh

[bigboyblue] 28/7/2020 18:36

These things aren't always black and white. Personally I take the view that the assets, both actual and potential, are so good that it's worth remaining invested despite my reservations about the competence of the management.

[alibx11] 28/7/2020 18:30

Don't spit the dummy out luffness just because somebody says something you may not agree with.

[luffness] 28/7/2020 16:47

Well it isn't difficult - if you dont trust the management invest elsewhere.While your contributions will be sorely missed I think we will get over it

[brucie5] 28/7/2020 16:24

It's certainly a great chart... And from here a good place/time to be invested. I'm now officially excited having added today.

[perfect choice] 28/7/2020 13:45

The path of a minor becoming a major is never straight forward and would accept most don't get there. One risk I do see to JAY is when it has drilled Disko and shows a viable resource so a potential time for a takeover approach. Now takeovers do come at a price and every company has it price in the end and that includes JAY.

JAY for now at least is well funded with the last placing at 10p and all staff/Directors agreeing a 30% reduction in salaries to September due to Covid delays, so I'm seeing the right approach at least. I do expect more share placing or equivalent in due course but with offtake & EU/project financing for Dundas, plus earn-in funding for Disko, the short term path at least should be reasonable as far as further share holder expansion is concerned for anticipated assets. Key time will be Oct/Nov when we hear more on the Dundas exploitation licence, then the definitive purchase agreement or project financing for Dundas. These may not happen of course so surprises can always happen, but that is the expected direction for JAY at the moment.

[alibx11] 28/7/2020 12:52

I have been bitten by delisting and management buy back before and they were a lot bigger than JAY, being FTSE250, and with better turnover.

If JAY has such potential I cannot see it being left to mature on it's own without being taken over or out by some means, big Multi Nationals don't give a damn about small private investors and will think nothing of ruining a company by strangling it in some way to pick it up for a song.

The above calculations also do not take into account additional listings, placings, watering down of the share pool, I'm sure there is a lot of options yet to mature as payment for services, as they have done before to save on cash expenditure.

The future will throw up alot of unforeseen issues and personally I think the above Sp predictions are pure fantasy land stuff....

I'm not saying it will be taken out but just that I believe there is a better chance of company being being taken off the PI, by some means, than of reaching £2.50 by 2025.
Nor can i see 70p by next Christmas but I'll happliy be proved wrong.

[summerfield1] 28/7/2020 10:43

Ten pence is ambitious!

[perfect choice] 28/7/2020 09:45

No chance delisting and a very good reason for that. You have Greenland/Danish sovereign funds now share holders of JAY and would lose that if ever JAY was delisted. So if JAY want to ensure they never do any business in Greenland again then that would be a good way to do it. Simply not a remote consideration.

Sounds like you have been bitten elsewhere alibx11 by a delisting, you're certainly not the only one been caught out by that, me included. But I think you can avoid that risk with this share.

Now in terms of this self made research note from Nicks1981 on LSE (believed to be an ex mining pro), he has certainly raised some ambitious price targets for the future of JAY but this is up to 2025 so 5 years to go for the highest figure he gave.

I can see a feasible route to 70p valuation but £2.50 by end 2025, well that will need a hell of a lot of commercialisation of future prospects not even started yet to even think a way of getting to that sort of price, so a huge amount of future hope value to get there.

But there is some logic to apply here. The current target valuation of JAY of around 20p is only based on initial target product volume from Dundas with only notional additional value for any of JAYs other prospects.

Nicks1981 is making the case for future product expansion at Dundas and also Disko delivering value, neither of which are not really considered in any of the current valuations Considering Disko is meant to be JAYs largest prospect, then if it is confirmed to be viable, that is a chunk of valuation yet to be added to JAY even in partnership with a major. I see a few items in his notes which I am not sure are right myself, like the 17bn tonnes of ilmenite mentioned is for the region not solely for JAYs Dundas licence as I am sure I've read that before, but who's arguing when we are talking at resources at the billion level. Also think the $120 tonne margin is a little high certainly for early stage production at full output, maybe with further lifetime optimisation in due course. But the fundamental message is correct. JAY is more than just the current Dundas PFS/plans and that message may well be about to be opened up.

So "if" Dundas output is expanded and Disko is confirmed as viable through drilling results, then I see JAY as being valued well above that current 20p valuation. But is all has to be delivered so lets not get ahead of ourselves yet and just getting back to a 20p price would be a very good result right now. However that is not the end of the JAY story and I do see significant uplift potential beyond that. But they need that evidence in the form of JORC compliant drill results, so we are only at the start of the journey on Disko, Kangerluarsuk and maybe Finland as well.

[longrod] 28/7/2020 09:26

Delisting? Thats out there. Seems like you've had a rough trot over the years by the sounds of it...

:)

[alibx11] 28/7/2020 07:35

Thanks for posting that DrMaccers the effort is appreciated but I personally think the original writer lives in fairy land....

Quoting figures like that and assuming that big multinationas will play fair and the assetts price relates to a fair share price is not realistic... fair does not enter into business calculations at all...

There is more chance of us being screwed by current management by delisting and them taking the company over from administrators totally wiping out the PI's and starting again with a clean slate and more streamlined company without the baggage.

I've seen it before and been a victim of it, it leaves a sour tast in the mouth.

Much as I wish the above prices would happen I just think it's pie in the sky to even hope for the above scenario to play out.

And I'm normally an optimistic person... you wouldn't know it by this post.

[rampair] 27/7/2020 22:09

a lot of effort gone into that Dr ~Maccers, thank you, I hold & look forward to the future, this is in my speculative portfolio, things are changing in the investing world though and Greenland is a relatively straightforward place to isolate.

r.

[snowyflake] 27/7/2020 19:04

Thank you DrMaccers.