Bluejay Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bjlk] 24/7/2020 09:31

https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1-ikgyVDykX_emTT729S6XJk0au-wxaS3HrRrEflXv1c/mobilebasic

[bigboyblue] 24/7/2020 09:11

Beyond my expertise too Snowy. Squiresquire?

[snowyflake] 24/7/2020 09:06

I looked at that BBB. I am not sufficiently technically adept to do it but is there any chance that you could copy it as the headers at the top of this thread?

[bigboyblue] 24/7/2020 08:34

There is a personal research note posted by Nicks1981 on LSE yesterday. It's all stuff that has been reported, but very comprehensive and all in one place.

[bigboyblue] 23/7/2020 08:42

Just listened to it twice. As usual it's hard to know what to believe from RM's 'by the seat of my pants' interviews, but previous promises have usually taken more than 3 months to disappear into the ether so it's encouraging that these things are expected soon.

FWIW I'm inclined to believe him on the expected significant capex reductions. We've seen it recently elsewhere in Greenland and I think we'll see it here. I remain convinced that we'll have the licence, but I'll guess Nov/Dec. The biggies are the offtake(s) and the finance. He said the offtake discussions have been going on for nearly a year, but they were also 'ongoing' on 9th August 2017 (see rns). The finance was maybe by the backend of the year at 9.50 in the interview, but it sounded quite likely in October by the time it got to 17 mins. Take your pick (or neither).

Whilst Dundas is the number 1 priority I was interested to hear reference to a Govt backed organisation possibly involved with Thunderstone. Unless I've missed it that was new.

[burtond1] 23/7/2020 07:22

Here, #JAY CEO Rod McIllree catches up with @copytaster on the recent news for @BluejayMining regarding the offtake negotiations for the Dundas Ilmenite Project in Greenland... "...four significant milestones will be reached by October..."https://total-market-solutions.com/2020/07/22/bluejay-mining-july-2020/

[dhb368] 22/7/2020 16:33

alibx11, I certainly have the advantage of being relatively late to the party here.

It is quite clear that RMs skills are not related to turning a discovery into a paying asset which is why I would have preferred for someone else to come in and taken on Dundas, giving JAY a free carry.

RM is too focused on the next discovery, but I do think that without CV19 we would have had progress on Dundas and also drilling in Disko and Kanger this year and therefor a significantly better share price

I suppose that I am more relaxed about JAY as it is not the duffer in my portfolio, that place goes to a company with even worse management.

[lovewinshatelosses] 22/7/2020 16:30

I assume RM, and some of those other senior management members, must be feeling the heat by now. They really do need to deliver very soon, or surely the market would push for changes at the top, as a condition of further capital investment (if applicable)?
Anyway, hoping that the pessimism is misplaced on this occasion. I revisited some of the past material that initially attracted me to this company (or more specifically the potential assets) and on balance, even taking into account the many well-documented negatives and failures, I have decided to keep the faith. GLA.

[perfect choice] 22/7/2020 16:21

Yes its certainly bene a long time coming with multiple delays and forecasts not met, but feel this is the closest we have been. Exploitation licence now on fixed timescales to complete and we at least do have a partner wanting to negotiate a definitive agreement in the next 3 months. Endless promises not met in the past accept, but is the plan finally coming together now around October?

Noticed price at end of day ticket back up to 7p bid so that's my 3 day rule for a new support level going forward.

[alibx11] 22/7/2020 15:43

Funny thing is dhb368 I remember people on here saying the same thing 2 years ago... I remember RM at investor meeting saying "now is the chance to get in at the bottom"....12-24months we'll be rolling in it... when JAY fundraised at 22p.

Here we are now at 7p.... they have kicked the can down the road and fund raised twice since to aquire more licenses without any income or immediate sign of it... it can't come down the the investors and institutions to continually indulge RM without any sign of a return.

As you can probably tell I'm more than peeved with my JAY holding... money could have been put to a lot better use.

[drmaccers] 22/7/2020 14:32

You'd have to think Disko will be partnered up in the next RNS. Anglo America an obvious one, holding all the licenses around them. ARCM did 50% on an exclusive chat to them

[dhb368] 22/7/2020 13:06

Do you pay for it yourself? If so it isnt really a present...

[dhb368] 22/7/2020 12:55

The only problem here is timing your purchase badly and not making as much profit as you might otherwise have done. IMHO there is no downside for these medium term and lots of upside if you can hold for 12-24 months.

The big risk for those waiting on the side-lines is if we get Disko news, as PC mentioned above.

IF they need to fundraise for Dundas, they could do that after separating Dundas Titanium from JAY as the funds will be specifically for that project and it will probably be relatively easy to get support from Greenland/Denmark for development funds. It will mean holders receiving less for Dundas but we will maintain 100% of the exploration upside.

[lovewinshatelosses] 22/7/2020 12:32

Thanks for sharing that PC. I really hope the share price is way north of the current number before the next fund raise. Also hope it will not be too dilutive. Onwards and forwards hopefully soon!

[perfect choice] 22/7/2020 12:18

There is more news to come so plenty of potential for price support while waiting for definitive agreement. share price Angel note issued today and copied below from vox markets (link below). Some interesting snippets and additional views. I am also expecting Disko to be next "other project" news item as well.



Bluejay Mining (JAY LN) 6.75, Mkt cap £65m – Offtake agreement for up to 70% of Dundas Ilmenite production
BUY - Target 20p
Bluejay Mining and its offtaker have report have updated the Offtake MOU to potentially take up to 70% of total annual output of the Dundas ilmenite project.
The new MOU raises the off-take to 250-300,000tpa of ilmenite.
Management have also agreed a three-month extension to the MOU to negotiate a potential definitive distribution agreement, eg to firm up on many of the underlying details with the trading concern.
The potential increase in the offtake being agreed upon is great news as it underpins future sales for the group and will help with the project financing.
The offtaker has also indicated a willingness to participate in the project financing providing for another source of equity in the business.
Bluejay will now move to finalise buyers for the remaining 140-190,000tpa of planned scheduled production.
Production: This indicates the mine should produce some 390-490,000tpa.
Valuation: Our model assumes the mine starts at a rate of 430,000tpa rising to 641,000tpa in year four .
Our valuation is based on a $220/mtu ilmenite price, an 8% discount rate and a capital cost of $294m.
We see the high initial capital cost estimate as cautious as it has been simply adjusted to account for significant transport and logistics costs to land equipment at Dundas. This brings the IRR down to 16%.
Ilmenite: prices have held firm throughout the COVID-19 crisis at around $220/mtu ilmenite. Consumers in the west rushed out and continued to buy paint for their furlough destocking DIY stores and driving online sales.
Pigment producers who produce the titanium dioxide have continued to demand feed from convertors such as Rio Tinto Iron and Titanium who we believe have been working flat out to make up the shortfall caused by the Canadian Lockdown and problems with production in South Africa, Madagascar and Mozambique.
Any further supply shocks may cause ilmenite prices to rise if consumers are forced to go to other miners for their feedstock.
Dundas project: The Dundas project is as simple as it gets from a mining perspective. The mining team simply take the heavy ilmenite sand off the beaches, screen the material and then take it for secondary processing and storage.
The material is then ready for conveying onto bulk carriers landing at the purpose built jetty. The mineral has almost no clay and does not hold water or freeze hard.
The location means bulk carriers can easily dock in deep water just next to the jetty in the summer months which are clear of ice.
Supplies are mainly ferried into Dundas in the summer but regular helicopter services exist between Dundas, The US airbase at Thule and the town of Qaanaaq.
Licensing: We expect a ‘go ahead’ decision from the government of Greenland shortly for full scale mining of the Dundas on-shore titanium beach sands.
A license for the near-shore resources which could substantially increase production rates and lower unit costs through dredge mining will naturally require further work and consideration.
Management are optimising Dundas further with results due in Q4.
The mining licence is current under assessment by the government of Greenland
Financing: we expect Bluejay to finance Dundas through a combination of prepaid offtake as well as project finance and support form Danish and Greenland government agencies. We note the Greenland pension fund is also a shareholders.
We expect the financing will be something like: 70% project finance, 20% offtake finance, 10% Bluejay Equity – eg Bluejay funds already spent on the project.
While there may also be a further equity raise Bluejay should have sufficient equity in the project to meet its commitments from this respect.
Conclusion: Securing ilmenite feedstock is like a game of musical chairs. If you are a consumer without direct access to sufficient mine production in a tight ilmenite market and commitments to provide titanium dioxide then life could get very expensive.
We expect Bluejay to move quickly once the mining license is passed to project finance Dundas and start ordering equipment and logistics for the project. While production could start next year using existing equipment, we would not expect full-scale production to start till 2022.
We expect the next update to relate to work on the Disko project further south in Greenland near the town of Iluissat and the Sermeq Kujalleq glacier.
*SP Angel act as nomad and broker. The analyst has visited the Dundas ilmenite project in Greenland. The analyst holds shares in Bluejay Mining. Dundas is well worth the visit as Greenland is awe inspiring.

[lovewinshatelosses] 22/7/2020 12:05

Back to 6p in the next few weeks or sooner? I certainly hope that patience will be rewarded here. It is certainly being tested!

[perfect choice] 22/7/2020 11:52

Ah yes always wary buying as soon as the market opens so I see one person at 7.92p checking back. Yep it was an MOU yesterday and still an MOU today, be it commitment to negotiate a definitive distribution agreement now in the next 3 months. So if that is delivered it will be a very different game on Dundas. Looking forward to that time. It's what is required, but just not the case right now.

[dhb368] 22/7/2020 11:18

It is an RNS that indicates nothing happening soon.

Couldnt open a long spreadbet yesterday, now cannot open a short! Probably means the 10% twitter trading crowd getting closed/closing out.

Bet the big 7.9 buys first thing are not feeling too good.

[perfect choice] 22/7/2020 10:14

Market reaction indicates expectation was for an agreement now not extension of MOU I would guess, so accept that point. Yes been a long time getting here but exploitation licence now at low risk level for further delay. If this partner does go to agreement we do have an offtake in place, but until its there it is not there so accept time to wait still

[astralvision] 22/7/2020 09:32

All a bit of a damp squib.

[graham10k] 22/7/2020 09:20

I admire the enthusiasm of some here given the snail pace progress preceded by over promises and under delivering! JAY establishing itself in Greenland is as slow as the moving glaciers it's working in. One day, yes one day it may come to pass that an exploitation license will be granted and customers will appear and sales will be made but the reaction today to yet another "positive" announcement doesn't seem to agree. As for doubling your money; well, we live in hope. Scalded investor, no apologies for the rant.

[alibx11] 22/7/2020 08:31

Can't say I'm too bouyed by this RNS as looks like they are struggling to find an offtake agreement partner.

If I remember correctly RT aren't processing the sample they got till 2021, so beyond the current MOU, looks like JAY are trying to get an agreement from other sources.

I'm a LT holder sitting on a huge loss here and not overly optimistic about it any more at all.

They can hold all the licenses they want but they need to get some income coming in and stop relying on investors to bank their constant spending habits... FFS it like having a high maintanence woman without the benefits in kind....

[perfect choice] 22/7/2020 08:00

Yep, effectively a double your money opportunity coming up if this all happens IMHO. And more on top with other prospects reaching partner agreements as anticipated, be it JAY wants Kangerluarsuk to itself based on previous statements and too early to say anything on the new MEL licence for the Thunderstone Project yet. To appreciate other prospect potential it is worth a read of the 16th January Hannam and Partners Equity Research Note (82 pages long), which you can download from Investors > Research Notes on the JAY web site.

[the stinger] 22/7/2020 07:53

Mid teens end of this year.