Bluejay Mining Share Discussion Threads

[drmaccers] 27/7/2020 18:52

I think the last 2 are in the wrong order

[drmaccers] 27/7/2020 18:51

Turns out the are in the wrong order Low costs of production, chemically consistent product and a politically secure and sensible base in Greenland (overseen by Denmark) means that the Dundas Ilmenite is remarkably attractive. It has caught the eye of all of the major producers around the world. They are looking on with interest well aware of what JAY has to offer.As I understand it and subject to a little diligence yet that production is scheduled to start in Q3 2021.Unless things change there will almost certainly be two methods adopted for mining. Subject to location mainlyThe Ilmenite stands away from the waters edge and the processing plant will be loaded on to dumpers and transported to the ROM pad for processing.The resource near the sea and the plant will be pushed into the sea by bulldozers and from there removed by dredgers before being pumped to the ROM pad.At the production area the Ilmenite will be crushed, dried and cleaned to remove the contaminants before being conveyed into the cargo ships. During the process the in-situ grades will be improved to something like 35% Titanium content by the time it's loaded.The Offtaker wants to take all he can. He's made that known. This equates to about 70% of the total which is approximately 300kt's of Ilmenite a year. JAY is currently in the process of finding other Offtakers for the balance. I don't see that's going to be either difficult or a long winded process. I can't see any impediments now going forward on that or indeed any other front. The maths in any appraisal on JAY shouldn't be particularly difficult. But what is difficult is comprehending the sheer size of the projects the quantities involved and the logistics! They're just mind blowing and influence the factors used in the formulas. Following the grant of the Share Options notified this week I make the number of shares in issue to be in round figures 1bn. I'll be using that figure not just to keep the maths simple but also I believe there's a realistic chance that JAY will not need to increase its Share Cap going forward. The production of around 450kt's a year to begin with is the target. it's quite a soft one and should do nicely for a start in my view. Looking at the grades the figure has been derived from a ROM of about 2.5mt's which looks achievable even though there's only about a six month production period shortened by the climate conditions. It's not been said by the company. Yet anyway. But given the Ilmenite is lying on a 20km+ stretch of the estern coast beaches it makes eminent sense to have satellite loading docks along it. Say 4 or 5 put in place in a phased modular approach to ramp up to optimisation. The coastal waters and shipping lanes around Greenland are governed by ancient Danish Maritime laws so approval to that approach will be needed. But I can't see approvals would be unreasonably withheld. The saving on "Cash Costs" adopting that approach would be considerable as would the benefit of economies of scale in the volumes shipped. The CAPEX for each module would be much less than the original budget and finance could be raised out of WIP from previous phases as ramping up progresses. That could result in production figures of about 1.5m tonnes in say 4 years time which would be far greater value. As things stand following a relatively short ramp up Dundas should be shipping 435kt's annualised. Revenue at $200/t would then be $87m and with All In Costs of say $70/t "earnings" are going to be $56.55m or thereabouts. If we use an earnings metric for the calculation I think the p/e ratio will be much higher than 10 at say 15 not least of all because of the extended LOM and quality of the Concentrate. So if that's right on $56.55m profit we have a share price of $56.55m x 15p/e ÷1bn shares = $0.84 or approximately 70p by Christmas 2021. This of course is simply a contribution in JAYs MC which would include a value for its other assets too. Following the notional ramp up the calculation of a notional share price looks something like 1.5bn t's x $130e x 15p/e ÷ 1bn shares = $2.

[drmaccers] 27/7/2020 18:50

Part 2 The investment from Greenland and Denmark is "contributing to making possible a substantial mining operation in the north-western part of Greenland." he says. Raising £11.5m in the successful placing last November is an indication that JAY is unlikely to need to call for cash anytime soon if at all now. £7.5m came from a firm placing at 10p among existing and new Institutional Investors and £4m at 10p from two Government Investors, Greenland Ventures and Vaekstfonden (the Danish Growth Fund). It's expected that JAY will be able to finance the CAPEX Dundas needs through a combination of a prepaid offtaker deal together with support from Danish and Greenland Government Agencies leaving JAY very little if anything to find. There might be a further equity raise of course but only as a last resort and the current thinking is that JAY should have sufficient funds without it. JAY's CEO Rod McIllree has always been very reluctant to the company's equity base which I like.All of this should become clearer this October. That's when Jay ought to get the Exploitation Licence from the Greenland Government, and that, presumably, would allow the Asian offtake partner to move ahead with the funding and the full joint plans for installing the mining and production plant. The Ilmenite price has been holding firm, and Analysts share price Angel have been using a $220/ tonne market price as well as a CAPEX budget for the Dundas project of $294m. This CAPEX looks overly cautious and JAY is working with companies from Greenland and Denmark to bring the budget down significantly. So here's a brief micro look at what JAY has at Dundas. There was an estimate of the resource done by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland a while ago. This estimate suggests there could be more than 17bn tonnes of ilmenite in JAY's area. It's not just the quantity. The grades encountered are the highest discovered on Earth. The quality is premium too with low contaminants and iron. In simple terms the ore comes from three locations along a 30km stretch along Greenlands western coast. Moriusaq, Iterlaq and Pinguarsuit - collectively known as "The Dundas Project" formerly "The Pituffik Project". The total resource there has the potential of being nothing short if vast! I've had a very rough stab at it and got to be in the region of 17bn tonnes as the experts estimate. It's hard to get your head around quantities like that! Say at 430kt's of Ilmenite production a year I make that about 4mt's ROM looking at the in-situ grades. If that's about right it would give Dundas a LOM of over 4000 years or 4 millenium or 4 kiloyears whatever your preference. That's just unbelievable! Truly mind blowing! No one really knows how much Ilmenite is there but by any count it has to be truly massive. The reality is whether it's 5bn tonnes or 17bn tonnes doesn't really matter too much when you're looking at a Life Of Mine measured in centuries or kiloyears. The current survey covers indicated resources at Moriusaq, but significantly only touches on the edge of what there might be at the Interlaken delta area where the main resource appears to be. There's a newly identified additional exploration target of between 20m and 60m tonnes at between 6% and 10% ilmenite too. There has been 77% ilmenite in-situ grade on the raised beach at Iterlak. Clearly this is another massive eye watering deposit, though not one which can formally be recognised by official resource parameters at this stage. As with all low priced commodities such as Ilmenite logistics will play a vital part in JAYS strategy for sure.Because the black sand is naturally generated – and renourished by the tides each year – extracting it is relatively simple and very low cost. There have been estimates that costs could come in under $60 tonne, leaving a margin of $120 tonne, even before the premium element is taken into consideration.

[drmaccers] 27/7/2020 18:49

Neil and anyone interested in JAY I'm sorry my thoughts on it are late. I also apologize for rambling on but it's hard to describe what is potentially a billion dollar multi-assesseted company in a couple of sentences. Ha ha!I confess to being a long term holder in Bluejay Mining (JAY) and I must confess to being overly fond of it sometimes. It's all too easy to be!I'm not a trader. I'm guilty of holding the stocks I like for too long. I've had to force myself not to do that with JAY and that's not been easy.So about three years ago I amassed a considerable holding. Having done the research although I did see the fundamentals as being exciting even back then but in reality they were nowhere near what they are now. Back then the market sentiment towards the company was very positive too The share price was running in the 20p range.However JAY's assets weren't anywhere near as clearly defined then and the timelines weren't mapped out at all. All the key milestones were at large. So it was then and for those reasons only that I decided to top slice heavily and to wait for the mist to clear. But I've always kept an interest in JAY and it's unique projects. I've always felt confident that the time would come for me to increase my holding again. And here we are.JAY currently holds three exploration licenses in Finland and three in Greenland. Of the ones in Greenland JAYs Dundas Ilmenite Project ( formerly known as The Pituffik Project) is the most advanced and the one rightfully taking centre stage at the moment.The recent RNS giving news of a MOU being entered into on Dundas for the majority of its Ilmenite signifies to me that this is opportune time I've been waiting for to reinvest. From here to production in about eighteen months time is mainly procedural as I see it.Looking at the share price recently I may have missed the very bottom of its route. But only by a fraction if anything and I don't want to leave it too much longer before I increase my holding now.The well known Analyst share price Angel is now projecting a near target share price price of 20p. It shouldn't take too long to get there given the renewed interest and the fact that medium term JAY's price should command many times that! But however long it takes and whatever the share price turns out to be when the production optimises I'm going to be patient. I'm feeling much more confident now.It seems as though I'm far from the only one that finds JAYs assets in Greenland attractive. They're mouth- watering to many as it becomes increasingly accessible due to the Earth's ice-caps melting. Russia is waiting to pounce on the commodities as is China. Even in typically outlandish fashion and in a way only he seems to know Trump wants to buy Greenland outright. Seriously can you believe it! ;-https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjdpfWSourqAhU-aRUIHZyoDsMQtwIwDXoECAMQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2019%2Faug%2F18%2Ftrump-considering-buying-greenland&usg=AOvVaw04aHX7vl4bMupwj879Dvn1 The Greenland and Danish Governments do not normally invest in mining companies (one representative will join the board of Dundas JAY'S wholly owned subsidiary and not the JAY's top company). But it is clear in JAYs case they recognize the company as something quite special. Rod McIllree JAY's CEO is delighted by the support, saying it shows the mutual desire to grow the mineral resource industry, and that he hopes JAY will be the vanguard. His words are backed by the CEO of Greenland Ventures, who says they consider JAY to be the leader in Greenland's emerging mining sector. It's also clear he's greatly impressed by JAY's team and is looking forward to supporting future progress. The CEO of the Danish Growth Fund also talks excitedly about the advanced Dundas project and JAYs wider portfolio in the development pipeline as attracting attention from major international mining companies.

[drmaccers] 27/7/2020 18:48

It just opens if I click on it. Not mine but from telegram

[snowyflake] 27/7/2020 18:36

DrMaccers - is it possible for you to enable us less adept persons to have access to those notes - please.

[drmaccers] 27/7/2020 17:12

https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1--HRUUK9xjp6Zqub20zqMGjtpFEXGn_jdtg2eDvHoV0/mobilebasicSome more terrific notes from an ex mining pro

[bigboyblue] 27/7/2020 16:53

AEX preparing to list on AIM:

Not intended as a recommendation, but may be of interest to some.

[mach100] 25/7/2020 15:07

If they can pull it off at the DISKO I see a very happy ending for JAY. The exploration stage should be something else.

[dhb368] 25/7/2020 14:18

Dwall, welcome.
I would guess at anywhere between 3p if they do not get any agreements on Dundas or Disko to perhaps early 20s if they pull off both well.

I am here because I believe that we MIGHT get 15-20p out of Dundas eventually, and that Disko and Kangerluarsuk are world class opportunities worth the current share price on their own and given time and the right exploitation significantly more.

[dwall87] 25/7/2020 10:37

Hi been holding here for a year or so now after a tip off. My knowledge of the industry is low and wondered if anyone had any estimates of where the share price could go in the next year? Thanks. Great info shared on this board.

[snowyflake] 25/7/2020 09:24

Thank you squiresquire.

[squiresquire] 24/7/2020 22:25

OK link posted, cheers Snowyflake and all others still going strong on the thread. Ime still very much interested but just dont post much research anymore, still here, watching, waiting....and hoping!!

Not for any result, i dont think we have any fear of that, just whether or not i will still be breathing!!

Good luck all,

[drmaccers] 24/7/2020 17:24

Interesting to see what value is put on Disko if they are to do a JV with the likes of Anglo. Any guesses?

[perfect choice] 24/7/2020 17:19

Well we've had our first 8p buy for some time, more to come is the hope and beyond that of course!

[snowyflake] 24/7/2020 13:19

Done Erric. Thanks M.

[erric] 24/7/2020 12:41

Why don’t you private message squiresquire ?
He may no longer look at his thread if he/she no longer invested

[mirandaj] 24/7/2020 11:31

Snowyflake,

I think that only the person that started the thread is able to add or make alterations.

[snowyflake] 24/7/2020 11:04

Thank you boys and girls but can someone please try and post the link in the header, say after the audio boom link - just saves anyone interested in flipping back to posts dated 24th July.

Beyond me to do it!!

[monet] 24/7/2020 10:00

Here the document


Here, CEO Rod McIllree explains to Sarah Lowther that four significant milestones will be reached by October including the mining licence for Dundas, multiple off take agreements and the optimisation study and financing.

[perfect choice] 24/7/2020 09:56

Hats off to the person who generated that personal research note, its taken some effort to go across multiple sources of information to pull that together to give one picture. Loads to read as you say Washbear and plenty of reference links as well.

[washbear] 24/7/2020 09:42

Thanks..Thats to days reading sorted...

[washbear] 24/7/2020 09:42

Thanks...Thats to day s reading sorted..

[bjlk] 24/7/2020 09:31

https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1-ikgyVDykX_emTT729S6XJk0au-wxaS3HrRrEflXv1c/mobilebasic