Bioquell Share Discussion Threads

[pavey ark] 12/10/2015 07:26

Looks like the will be an update in mid November so there should be news one way or another.
The institutions don't like the idea of a special dividend as this is taxed as income so they will probably push for an outright sale.

[harrogate] 08/9/2015 08:42

Hi

I readily admit I am not a long term holder in BQE - juts bought in post the large disposal and the announcement of the review. Had thought it might be a quick in at out at a few % - Any thoughts on the status. Not my normal style and maybe I need to stop this trading !! Thanks

[buywell3] 14/8/2015 08:00

I take it you guys are aware of C Mills holdings in Cyprotex (CRX) and Source BioScience (SBS)

Both Pharma Biotechs with Life Sciences divisions and both recently with USA exposure

He has around 29% in CRX and currently building in SBS at 16%

Both due to release Interims in the next week or so

Both expected to be profit making this year

Hargreave Hale also hold shares in both

How long will the strategic review take ? as the chart is looking a tad stressed of late

[eezymunny] 15/6/2015 18:07

Sharestobuy. Did you consider asking yourself how much BQE was worth BEFORE you bought the shares?

FWIW I don't suppose anybody has much idea - rather a case of beauty in the eye of the beholder etc. If noone wants to buy maybe this drops 15-20%? If someone steps in with a significant bid then 10xEBITDA would give maybe 30% upside. We can only guess...

[sharestobuy] 15/6/2015 17:21

Yes that's brilliant advice!!!

[effortless cool] 15/6/2015 15:15

Yes, I have no idea of timing.

Hope that helps.

[sharestobuy] 15/6/2015 14:40

Hi all, I'm a new investor of bioquel. I know about try to sell trac but do you feel that majority of this deal is already priced in or not? What share price do you see bioquel going to and does anyone have no idea of timing???

STB

[topvest] 26/5/2015 20:25

OK, fair point but they have already said that they will only be returning substantially all. Splitting hairs really. Best solution for holders is a bid for the whole company now including the cash. Good luck to those that remain.

[eezymunny] 26/5/2015 19:38

Nope the xn costs stated as c. £1m already. If it costs £2m to return capital I'm gonna train to be a capital returner ;)

[topvest] 26/5/2015 19:14

I've rounded down to £40m to take account of transaction costs and return of capital costs which will be a couple of £million no doubt.

[eezymunny] 26/5/2015 12:03

I don't disagree with most of what you say topvest. I'm not wildly optimistic about a takeout price at a huge premium but you never know, we don't have much detail about what recent R&D spend has(/might) delivered. My best guess is a modest premium to current share price (160-170p) but we'll have to wait and see.

You are however wrong on nett proceeds of Trac sale. Already indicated as £43.5m not the £40m you suggest.

[topvest] 22/5/2015 17:42

Good luck to those that remain. Could still see £2. I'm sure that is what Christopher Mills is hoping for. Interesting that he is always at the bottom of the list of directors, but he is obviously the person that has most influence given the 30% holding. Suspect the rest of the Board don't like the activist nature of the holding!

[topvest] 22/5/2015 17:38

Don't disagree with that - after costs etc. £40m for TRAC and £40-50m best case for the remaining business is what I think.
150p * £80/90m divided by £65m market cap = £1.85 - £2.10 rough numbers.
Whether anyone would actually pay that for the business that remains is a big question mark though. It has been a dog for years and not generated any cash. They say the development phase is over, but I'm not sure I buy it to be honest. It seems to stumble from a profit warning to a write-off to high capex. Not a great business, even if it does have some good products.
Probably a 6m+ wait to get the cash and may stay independent with a then negligible dividend. Having said that there may be an interested party - you never know!
Anyway, may top-up on NASCIT instead as that is better value - Christopher Mills always / often buys at the right price. I bought these too high with the benefit of hindsight and only made a 10% profit in a couple of years + collected the dividends. Hardly a disaster, but ultimately a tad disappointing given what I predicted did happen - i.e. TRAC hived off.

[eezymunny] 22/5/2015 08:14

I'm inclined to agree with your downside topvest. That gives a value to Bio division of c. £8m. Seems pretty low but could conceivably fall there if it's not throwing off much cash. Upside however seems potentially much higher. As people have said 2x revenue, which would be c. 14xEBITDA is just about imaginable. That would give us c. 230p to the upside. So risk reward still looks pretty favourable here. I'd give my best guess as a final outcome 165p ish but you'd need to know much more than I do to make a guess with any confidence.

[topvest] 22/5/2015 07:03

Well I've made a decision and sold mine for over 150p. In my view the upside is 180p or so and the downside 120p. Given the wait and uncertainty, I've decided to exit whilst the going is good.

[skyship] 21/5/2015 13:26

strathroyal - sending you a Private Message. If you haven't used before, you'll see the link top left under the ADVFN symbol.

[bakunin] 21/5/2015 08:06

Just had another obviously-undervalued holding that nobody was interested in get snapped up: PNX.

[bakunin] 21/5/2015 08:05

hpcg
Plus their offerings ought to be something currently in demand: Ebola (and the next superbug, and the next.....) and all that.

[strathroyal] 20/5/2015 21:40

EM - 'In hitech, 2 x revenue is pretty common'.

Yes, hasn't TRAC just sold for that?

[hpcg] 20/5/2015 14:56

Bakunin - I tend to agree that small company R&D is more valuable in the hands of a larger company which can leverage it. If it is any good there ought to be competition for it.

[bakunin] 20/5/2015 14:42

EezyMunny
In hitech, 2 x revenue is pretty common.
If there weren't ongoing R&D, margins in most hitech companies would be 20-40%.
Paying 2 x revenue means that you're expecting to achieve 20%+ margins.
The acquiror would almost certainly get economies of scale in the area of R&D, so BQE's BIO division's "poor" operating performance of late could easily be rectified.
I'm not sure how technologically advanced their stuff is, hence for me it is only a possibility. I'm sure what they got for TRAC was a surprise to most people.
It all depends on whether BIO can be integrated into the technological offering of a larger outfit or whether it only makes sense to run it as a stand-alone entity.
So, 2 x BIO revenue is £55m and they have £48m in cash, so that makes circa £100m or a share price of 235p if there is no tax to pay for the disposal of TRAC.

[eezymunny] 20/5/2015 11:56

No tax at all to pay I believe. The "profit" is a capital gain and they should get the exemption. I'd say your 250p is very optimistic but certainly a possibility. I don't understand their market positions well enough to make a prediction. 1 x revenue seems a more likely number to me but perfectly possible that even that is not achievable. I'm sat on some very nice gains here but inclined to hold what I have left to see if we get lucky and accept the downside if we don't. Which means there will be downside :)

[bakunin] 20/5/2015 10:08

Thanks EezyMunny. But, there will be corporation tax to pay? It is a profit, isn't it?
Hopefully, TRAC was constituted as a separate entity way before the takeover (12 month eligibility). I doubt management could be that silly.
250p easy if the tax consultants can whisk away whatever tax may be due.

[eezymunny] 20/5/2015 09:54

As I said before Bakunin. There should be NO CG tax to pay on Trac disposal.

[bakunin] 20/5/2015 09:35

If BIO sells for 2 x sales (not at all absurd), then we would get circa 250p easily, especially if a multinational acquiror can offset the CGT due on the TRAC disposal against losses in a UK subsidiary or whatever (like Amazon etc).