Bioquell Share Discussion Threads

[brummy_git] 17/5/2014 10:41

I'm with you Mach100. Chris Mills did the same with Celsis. Back in 2009 they issued a big profit warning, but the shares hardly dropped on decent volume. Mr Mills (a ~25% shareholder) then acquired the company on the cheap.

The Bioquell story looks remarkably similar - albeit owning a wobbly stock just on the chance that it might be take-over is never a great strategy to make money in the long term.

[bbluesky] 16/5/2014 22:48

Hmm, don't know about Redhall, but the management here have been ultra conservative and are legendary for negative RNSs. MEast contract comes through and hey ho, numbers look good and if you believe the antibiotic out of date case, when in hospital, you will hope that they are a Bioquell client. So, plus Trac, not dead yet and imv limited downside, so with now 3.13 % yield finals ex-div 4/6/14 = annualised?

[mach100] 16/5/2014 21:06

I knew something was a bit whiffy when TD Waterhouse were offering 102p for a sell when it was 98 offer and 100p bid. I took it as I didn't want to see these drift lower. I reckon given the bounceback a takeover bid could be on the cards, But I am glad to be out as BQE is like Redhall where profit warning is piled on profit warning. And management promising things but never getting to grips with the business.

[topvest] 15/5/2014 21:40

They need to demerge TRaC as it is being held back by the original business. Very clear to me.

[brummy_git] 15/5/2014 10:42

House broker Investec reckons TRaC is worth 90p/share on its own - hence floor for stock - but has put its 133p TP under review.

Something also worth remembering is that investor/director Chris Mills (re North Atlantic Smaller Companies), who owns a big chunk of this stock (27.1%), has a history of taking these type of companies private (eg bionostics, celsis, etc) and turning them around.

[pugugly] 15/5/2014 08:40

Agreed - Reading between the lines I wonder how much net cash -Disturbing that not specified.

According to Refs they had spme £2.2 million at the time of the 2013 accounts. Half year loss of at least £1 m in Bio and an apparently declining market.

Proportional p/e refs at 123p was 12.3 - Yield about 3%.

Any guesses as to the half year pre tax figures ? Surely below £2M, possibly lower.

[mach100] 15/5/2014 08:30

N+1 Brewin should be reiterated in the stocks and made a target for The Shaky Hands Archery club annual competition. I wonder will they come out with a reduced TP? Actually there is more manipulation. Those buys at 102p are all sells including mine. I think BQE will fall further though when this morning is digested and could be 90p in short order. Even the divi is not worth hanging round for.. Horrible, just horrible!b I was looking at selling the other day as I have my eye on some worthy stocks but felt its yield was worth the risk. I at least freed up some cash for a worthy investment and BQE is to be avoided imo even at this level. I wouldn't be surprised if they conjure up another profit warning again next time.

[brummy_git] 15/5/2014 08:08

Agreed. Looks like a lot of hard questions need to be answered.

[mach100] 15/5/2014 07:45

Horrible statement this morning and I am out first thing. I am struggling for positives and expect this to get whacked today. Urggghhhhhhhhh!

[topvest] 13/4/2014 17:43

Just reading the annual report. Does anyone think that BQE might be better served by a demerger of TRAC - would that unblock value or do the two divisions work better together?

[bbluesky] 20/3/2014 06:26

N+1 Brewin have reiterated a Buy on the stock with 157p as a target.

[bbluesky] 19/3/2014 21:25

IMV opportunity knocks and given the incredibly conservative nature of the company, directors buying at 137p is potentaily significant. A couple of them sold seveal years ago at an opportune moment, so read in that what you will.

[mach100] 19/3/2014 17:01

Down again today. I guess those unable to sell yesterday or waiting for the dust to settle decided to head for the exit today. I am happy to hold as there is nothing wrong with the fundamentals. I think a director bought at 137p before so he must think there is value in the company.

[mach100] 18/3/2014 22:42

Good points above! 8% rise in the divi but growth has flatlined. Companies that don't meet expectations will get hammered and so Bqe proved. I think the figures themselves are not too bad. Ironically the fall just makes it more attractive to yield hunters. It might even bounce back a little but I agree it is a hold. Pity because it really is capable of so much more.

[rolo7] 18/3/2014 22:33

Think this is bqe related!
hxxp://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11085334.Killer_bug_found_at_hospital/?ref=var_0

[bbluesky] 18/3/2014 21:09

Well, I think that is the point. This is a leading edge company, dedicated to improving what they do, so they research and longer term that will make this a global player and global player size. I don't think they will cut back on this and hence the short term frustrations. As I said before, this is a world leader and that is their #1: Science first, shareholders 2nd(though the trade is the divi). What I think has changed, is that they recognise that they need to move into the 21st century, changing sales force strategy etc and moving from capital expenditure to recurring income and minor but imv significant looking at the US (news from the RNS) reminds me of SQS, a software testing company, so not a million miles from TrAK, which has gone gangbusters in the last year or so. As at some point I shall be in a hospital no doubt, I hope they succeed in one of their missions. Hear's to health!

[apad] 18/3/2014 20:20

BTW, adding back in the depreciation I get a Price/NetCashFlow of 5, which is remarkably low.
Taking account of the Capital Investment gives a Price/OwnersEarnings of about 17, which is on a par with the PER of 18.
This is a similar picture to last year. It suggests that once the capital spend throttles back there is the potential for a huge increase in performance.
Note that even with the big capital spend net cash increased.
Am I correct?
apad

[bbluesky] 18/3/2014 19:12

One of those, their time will come stocks! The full report is worth reading and other than their usual negative soundbite, last time it was Asia could be slow and now China is a big positive!! This time, the start of the year is slower than expected, but leads are super encouraging, and if you have the stamina to trawl through the risk assessments, yes, risk assessments, you will see the company scientific culture of what might not work is their modos operandi and doesn't make for great soundbite reaction shareholders. These are world leaders in many aspects of their business and making headway. Cash, exceptional divi,in a great business area(s), and it has the capability to deliver year on year. Frustrating waiting for it to get up on those feet, but hopefully it will be worth the wait and the divi beats any cash ISA by miles.

[apad] 18/3/2014 07:45

Not delivering. Still spending. No debt. Jam tomorrow. Hold.
apad

[rolo7] 15/3/2014 00:16

Thanks mach100, cash balance is at bit low at half year is my concern, new fd also, hope cap ex reduces to increase the cash flow.

[apad] 14/3/2014 19:11

We'll get an idea on the 18th anyway.
apad

[apad] 14/3/2014 19:05

Capital expenditure should drop now and the cash flow might be enough to kick it out of its range.
apad

[mach100] 14/3/2014 19:00

Rolo, The company pays a nice divi. I am a long term holder at 121p and would have thought I have had at least 10p back per share in divi over the last 12 years. It is range bound though and I dont think it has been above 161p. So you wont get spectacular capital growth but you do get a fairly solid company. I have found its MRSA angle frustrating as in my opinion it hasn't really taken off but other parts of the business seem to have done well. Undervalued in my opinion!

[rolo7] 14/3/2014 16:31

I added a few at the end of the day today looks a interesting company with plenty of news flow and health events to comes. Director buys before closed periods and increasing volume drew bqe to my attention anyone any thoughs?

[mach100] 17/1/2014 07:57

I would say today temo and I am expecting a 9% increase to December 31st. Nice set of results really and growing at 9% a year so I think we should see 150p again in the next few weeks. Hopefully in March the Divi will be increased and it already pays a nice yield imo.