Bidstack Share Discussion Threads

[marketgem] 14/1/2019 13:44

There will be sellers as there's been hardly any liquidity, amazing volume now and the trend has changed. There is a lot of newsflow over coming weeks and months so should flush out the system

[mcfly79] 14/1/2019 13:42

150k is the average daily players. Each version of the game sells over 1 million copies.

They would never get 100% utilisation.

At the 5% utilisation forecast for 2018 it's £5 per player per year. At 10% it's £10 per player per year.

Still sounds quite high, but this is a game where the average player puts a lot of hours in so can be exposed to a lot of adverts over the year.

[davidlloyd] 14/1/2019 13:40

and then again....

DL

[phowdo] 14/1/2019 13:30

£100M /150k = £666/player annualised. Which is frankly bonkers.
Divide that by at least an order of magnitude.

[mcfly79] 14/1/2019 13:05

Given that this is a new way of displaying adverts in game it is difficult to predict what the CPM will be. Peterhouse suggest £2 per 1000 impressions initially, rising to £3.4 in late 2020. I'm hoping it will come in higher than that, especially where inventory has been sold direct to brands. This has already been been done with Dominos, Vodafone and the NHS plus a host of other brands mentioned in the trading update.

The following two paragraphs from the listing prospectus suggest the revenue per 1000 impressions could be higher:

'On a typical day, around 150,000 people play Football Manager, with an average time in the game of 4 hours per day. Based on evidence gathered during the trial phase, this generates around 25 million potential impressions per day.'

'The Directors believe Football Manager 2018 has an advertising inventory worth over £100 million per year.'

Either the £100m figures is based on a higher number of potential impressions, or the CPM is about £11 (if my maths is right)?

If the £100m figure proves correct then just a 10% utilisation of the available Football Manager impressions would make the company cash flow positive.

[the deacon] 14/1/2019 11:57

Market Gem, do you have any idea of the current cash burn? Obviously under the AIM regulations, they'd have listed with at least 18 months worth of working capital. Has the company given any indication of burn rate yet?

[mcfly79] 14/1/2019 11:49

Thanks marketgem, completely agreed.

Having reread my post it's far more negative than I intended. There is risk but I'm extremely excited about the prospects for the company and a lot of the buying today has been me.

Once we start gaining traction then the valuation could climb very high, very quickly.

[the deacon] 14/1/2019 11:48

Anyone know who is the seller?

[marketgem] 14/1/2019 11:28

If the company grows revenue to £6m as per the estimate, I think the pe's go out of the window. Agree lots of risk but lots of reward, that what us aim investors love, it's somewhat derisked by having AAA publishers onboard at this early stage

[marketgem] 14/1/2019 11:23

There mine forecasts but you can adjust the netback to factor in costs how best you feel comfortable I used 0.5 1 and 2 to give an idea. I think the number of games is a misleading number the key is the number of CPM's they sell. Whether it's one title or 100 titles really is irrelevant imho

[mcfly79] 14/1/2019 10:50

Thanks. I found the note last night and was up late doing research.

I've taken an initial position this morning.

The potential is certainly very large but there is still risk. The company needs to scale up quickly to become profitable before their cash runs out. Peterhouse are forecasting 24 games being live by June 2019 and 42 by Dec 2019 - that's a big ask.

Some analysis I've seen is forecasting a potential market cap using PE ratios but is doing so based on gross profit and ignoring overhead costs.

The figures are set out in the broker's note:



The overheads are now quite large (forecast as £3.1m for 2019 and £3.9m for 2020) and to cover them we will need either a lot of new games to go live in H1 2019 (or a lot of additional revenue from FM).

In terms of current revenue we know that in December FM18&19 had about 1 millions impressions per day in Asia. James Draper stated in the Vox interview that Asia isn't the largest market for the game. Therefore, we should have at least 2 million impressions worldwide per day for FM.

Peterhouse forecast a CPM of £2 for the first half of 2019. That gives a current annualised revenue of at least £1.5m for FM. At 40-45% gross margin that give at least £0.6m of gross profit. Hopefully this is very conservative and the figure is a fair bit higher (perhaps even double that).

Even so we'll need a lot of additional revenue to generate enough gross profit to cover the overhead costs (£3.1m for 2019 and £3.9m for 2020).

We'll need about £8m-£9m of revenue to get to break even. The question is how quickly can we get there. I've bought in because I think there is a good chance we'll get there quickly because we have both demand and ease of integration.

The terms James uses, 'Frictionless Scalability', is music to my ears. They have a working system and the API can be integrated into new games within a few hours.

I'm not surprised that they are getting approached from all quarters. Their technology is potentially game changing for monetising games.

What really excites me is signing up mobile games with massive player bases. The advertising numbers with these types of games are very large. They have the additional benefit of player bases that are far more accepting of adverts (due to the pricing model of games) and of developers who are used to monetising through adverts. There isn't the same brand risk for mobile games.

[maverick247] 14/1/2019 09:07

Great summery of bidstack HTTPS://youtu.be/rlr2Q9op4Tc

[marketgem] 14/1/2019 08:40

https://twitter.com/marketgem/status/1084432169286713345?s=21

[cookiejug] 13/1/2019 18:25

Yes, Peterhouse did one at listing, be good to see an update after all the recent ramping...

[mcfly79] 13/1/2019 16:34

Does anyone know if there have been any research notes published since listing? (is there one by Peterhouse?)

Thanks

[cookiejug] 11/1/2019 19:43

Hi guys..agreed it was a great interview. Seems very enthusiastic without being carried away and sounds like they've done their DD. Advertising on websites made Google billions and bidstack's highly targeted approach sounds very convincing. Locking in customers should help keep them ahead of the game(no pun intended!). Thumbs up from me 😊.

[marketgem] 11/1/2019 18:39

It's very positive, cloud gaming makes games more accessible on less powerful devices and because the games are running on a server and streaming down to a device makes bidstacks work better better too.

[william_quinn] 11/1/2019 17:11

May I ask the more experienced amongst you, will this affect Bidstack:

[the deacon] 11/1/2019 16:26

This is what happens when the CEO explains the business, and maps out a clear strategy. Hinting at big players being involved helps too. I'm still not fully convinced of the scalability here but I'll keep it on the watch list for now

[marketgem] 11/1/2019 16:21

We are blue...

[maverick247] 11/1/2019 15:54

Strong close coming

[marketgem] 11/1/2019 15:44

https://twitter.com/marketgem/status/1083749535694929921?s=21Some peer comparisons

[maverick247] 11/1/2019 14:17

Top interview at long bloody last!Big growth story here

[the deacon] 11/1/2019 13:24

That was a good interview on VOX. Talking to many big players. Interesting.

[bobby1904] 11/1/2019 07:48

Nice RNS! Hitting target revenues. Not always easy having to promise these things when raising funds & then deliver. Sounds easier than it is so very well done to them!