Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[solooiler] 19/11/2020 14:52

I disagree that restaurants are a good example

Restaurants are capex heavy, general low margin businesses with limited scalability prospects. The only ones with envious business models at scale are the likes of Mcdonalds where you have a franchise angle but thete the barriers to replication are ginormous

Where is the similarity? BOTB is a capex light, cost light business with supernormal profitability.

Why is there more competition in restaurants today? The market has been around for longer than online spot the ball, and more people have aspirstions to be a chef than own a restaurant than set up a competition website. There is much more ability to be unique in the restaurant space by having excelllent chefs which is not an unlimited resource.

Throw £10m at a Botb lookalike business as a gambling major and you have to be pretty incompetent to not make money over a 9 month view. Not going out and spending £150m+ on what is a customer base?

If Paddy powr came out with a weekly prize competition tomorrow will it be less trusted than Botb for legitimacy? I doubt it. Especially if they are more transparent than botb on number of players.

We have had people like paul scott write about 40 quid price potential then selling out most his holding. People need to understand what is and isnt realistic about valuing this business I think not just extrapolate wild valuations without thinking deeply about the business model

[qvg] 19/11/2020 14:43

yes, well put

[ryanc106] 19/11/2020 13:14

Superbly balanced points Mammyoko

[mammyoko] 19/11/2020 11:59

There are very many businesses where there are few barriers to entry. In many of these the barrier is all about executing well. Restaurants are a good example.

This applies here. Barriers to entry may appear to be low. The probability of executing well may also be low. BOTB have executed well and are established - that is a key barrier for potential competitors.

There are clearly interested parties. Otherwise, it would have made sense to have combined yesterday's update with a conclusion of the FSP. It seems possible to me that the delay is caused by a difference of opinion on the price as there is little else to hold up the process in terms of due diligence. The difference of opinion on price can't be too great or the company would, logically, end the process now. Alternatively, there is more than one interested party and the vendors are seeking the best deal they can. After such a long process, quite a few loose holders will have already sold up. Consequently, if this is to end with no offer it would seem a reasonable time to do it soon. The fact that they have stated that discussions remain ongoing suggests to me that this is, indeed, the case. The Directors have invariably been straightforward and honest with shareholders in the past.

Given the almost complete absence of institutional holders (Octopus with 1.5% and Stancroft Trust with 7,75%), this would seem to be William's best shot at crystallising value. If the process ends without an offer he is left with few other options to do so. Hence, if that is his aim, he may be clinging to this opportunity which could be causing the delay.

The quoted spread has widened out and the volumes have been tiny for the last two months. No big holders have sold. The price has drifted down as smaller holders have come to believe that a deal is increasingly unlikely. Hence, it would seem that the bid premium has largely evaporated and that an announcement that the FSP was over should, logically, have little impact on the price which is back to a pre-bid multiple of around 17 (1360p bid and assumed eps of 80p). The risk / reward feels good. The business is growing earnings and cashflow per share fast. The latest lockdown should have assisted that. Lockdown seems likely to last well into next year. Earnings could well come in higher than 80p for the current year. There remains an, on balance, possibility of a bid at a premium of at least 50%. The downside, assuming no deterioration in trading, should not be much more than 10% from here. The competition is going nowhere and has yet to prove it can be any realistic threat. I continue to hold.

[ryanc106] 19/11/2020 09:29

Solooiler, why are you here? What are you trying to achieve?

If you’re a holder but now have doubts then simply sell up and move on. If you’re not invested then kindly do one as you’re rather aggressive and quite annoying tbh.

All the best

[solooiler] 18/11/2020 22:30

because contrary to the name i dont think sportech is very tech savvy or well run

[3ootuk] 18/11/2020 21:45

Then why haven't Littlewoods 'spot the ball' gone online to this degree?
You could argue they have the brand name and familiarity from years of running the paper competitions.

I've said before that millions used to play spot the ball, though those customers probably moved onto the National Lottery.

"Balls Out" are trying to replicate spot the ball, but I've never heard of them despite them being going a few months.

History will absolve us. We either get bought out, get rerated on sales, or drop market share to new entrants. At least BOTB have a monthly history of punters winning prizes, whereas it takes a long time for a new entrant to build confidence. Maybe they would run at a loss to give away great prizes in order to win market share, but how long can they afford to do that?

[solooiler] 18/11/2020 21:38

Ridiculous comparison to Apple and Tesla. The reason other haven't gone after it is probably because the revenue and addressable market is chump change to them. This business is tiny in the grand scheme of things.

As it grows, and becomes a bigger market, there is very little to stop a competitor with cash coming in and making it work easily. With marketing spend and some credibility (like a large gambling company would have out the door), there is little that cannot be replicated.

Can't make it work? How comes 7dayperformance and others who are rubbish are making £300k profit after tax on their accounts (profit and loss account increased by that amount)? They alone are nearly 10% the size of botbs profit. 7 days and dream car giveaways are 20% of botbs profit on my estimates. There is real competition for people who want to stake money and try to win cars or whatever else. You can choose to be oblivious or not

This does not mean botb cannot make money but it is a real risk that surely any predator will seriously think about before coughing up paying >20 times botbs 1 years profit. They need to know this business model can last and scale for 5 years never mind 20

i consider botb LESS transparent than many of these competitors. Does botb ever tell players how many entries there are in a competition?

[ryanc106] 18/11/2020 21:14

People are completely underestimating how difficult it is to set up and scale a business like BOTB.
Myself and business partner tried something v similar a few years ago but gave up after 6 months as it just wasn’t going to happen unfortunately for us.
BOTB are the main player and leader in this sector. It’s as simple as that... If it was easy many would have replicated it and succeeded by now.
Instead BOTB continue to increase earnings at a rate of knots and completely dominate the market.

They are the Apple, Google, Tesla of their sector! Make no bones about it

[3ootuk] 18/11/2020 20:52

I calculate, from published sales, Quantum have sold about £1500 of tickets over all their competitions.

One would have thought there would be a surge of sales within a couple of hours after the advert.

A lot of the higher end cars are used.

Doesn't look like there has been a surge in sales to warrant the advert spend.

[peart] 18/11/2020 20:16

Agree Ryanc106, they look very ordinary....

[ryanc106] 18/11/2020 20:08

Quantum look absolute garbage to me! Don’t think BOTB have anything to worry about.

Just need to keep doing what they are doing and the share price and earnings will follow

[solooiler] 18/11/2020 20:06

I think dream car giveaways made £300 grand profit last year after taxation. 7 days performance about £315 grand. botb did £3520 grand

[3ootuk] 18/11/2020 19:46

From Quantum t&c
"... One free postal entry per person, per Competition. All valid postal entries will be given an equal chance of winning as all other entries..."

Wait until this hits the competition boards. Free entries for thousands of people who won't pay anything apart from setting up an account.



I would say, how long have dreamcargiveaways been around and how big are they? They don't appear to stimmy BOTB, so Quantum look to be similar.


Sorry for the disjointed posts, I'm looking at this on the fly.

[peart] 18/11/2020 19:41

Meanwhile BOTB, keeps marching on, making money and building a brand.

[ryanc106] 18/11/2020 19:40

Some Big buys gone through today on L2!
Clearly people are starting to get Bullish

[peart] 18/11/2020 19:39

Yes, I saw that re winners 3ootuk. They probably tried your area or a few regions to see what return they get. I suspect they will burn through a lot of cash trying that game.

[peart] 18/11/2020 19:35

Up North for me - different area

[3ootuk] 18/11/2020 19:29

Peart.. I'm in West Yorkshire

A quick Google says peak time adverts can cost £10-30k.
Looks more like dreamcargiveaways

Looking at Quantum - meet our winners - there arent any yet.
Some of the competition closing dates are October next year.

So far a handful to a few dozen tickets sold for most, yet the competitions started 5th November.

[3ootuk] 18/11/2020 19:27

I think with Quantum, you buy a ticket and have an 'x in y' chance of winning.

With BOTB there's a skill element that you think will increase your odds of winning.

[peart] 18/11/2020 19:27

Mind you it wasn't advertised in my area during Emmerdale. Sure to be extremely expensive to do that nationally.

[peart] 18/11/2020 19:22

Perhaps you're right Solooiler - Quantum Competitions....

[peart] 18/11/2020 19:19

I appreciate that different opinions make a market, and as such, Solooiler, in time you may be found to be correct with your views. If you are a long term holder perhaps you should consider cashing in your stock and taking your profits. JMHO....

[3ootuk] 18/11/2020 19:16

Quantum Competitions advertising on itv during Emmerdale.
Looks like it's just buy a ticket Competitions.

Quantum Competitions, Quantum HQ, Brookenby Park, Brookenby, Market Rasen LN8 6HF

Incorporated December 2019

Director Kenickie Andrew Robert HUGILL

Also involved in all sorts of telecoms/plumbing/
Looks like he's been a director of a few companies since 2016, then this year has incorporated a few more companies.