Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[ryanc106] 07/9/2020 20:48

Indeed. Web traffic stats show superb growth.
Hopefully this will translate into an exceptional trading update.

[investographer] 07/9/2020 19:29

The web traffic stats out today for August are very impressive Https://www.similarweb.com/website/botb.com/#overview

[peart] 07/9/2020 17:13

Ex dividend in 10 days and a trading update probably before then, so we have a few things to look forward to in the short term.

[peart] 27/8/2020 10:15

I'm of the same view, traders don't think a deal is coming so they are jumping ship. It matters not for longer term holders, in my view. Also, the people who jump ship might get a surprise with a sale announcement in the coming weeks - no one knows...
Think back to the tender offer at 485p on 5.3.19, that seemed such a great deal back then, not now and it was not so long ago!

[pastybap] 27/8/2020 10:09

Agreed. Only 500ish shares traded so far this morning, so definitely not someone "in the know".

[investographer] 27/8/2020 10:03

Those punters that bought in on the FSP look to have lost patience here.

[serratia] 26/8/2020 19:24

I would think by early sept a decision could be made on an acceptable price or otherwise. Q1 figures in, Aug even better. In addition they've backed off the marketing as they've proved what they can do.
Time to put up or shut up.

[peart] 26/8/2020 17:52

Just thinking here, if no sale comes through and judging on past dividends and special dividends paid, then we could be in for some excellent dividend per share pay outs in the next year or so. Maybe 60 - 70p per share next year.

[investographer] 26/8/2020 16:30

Did everyone get their AGM voting instruction form today?

[peart] 26/8/2020 13:34

AGM 16.9.20

[ryanc106] 26/8/2020 11:22

I don't particularly want my profits to erode either. The sooner we hear the better... I'm looking to get into cash as soon as I can as can see this market rolling over at any time tbh.

[ryanc106] 26/8/2020 11:20

They could do with hurrying up and give us an update on what's going on.

[investographer] 26/8/2020 09:08

Ryan, he meant his personal profits evaporate.Unfortunately, this will clearly drop very heavily if talks collapse as this punters leave. It will present a very good buying opportunity. This is my largest holding by a long way, so will not add.They are sitting on Q1 figures, so will be interesting to see those. I suspect they will be released at the AGM together with news on the FSP

[ryanc106] 26/8/2020 08:58

Profits evaporate? Imo it will be the opposite...eps should show huge increases vs forecast

[mrx001] 26/8/2020 08:48

Personally I think if it is announced that the talks have failed there will be a considerable price drop. Could be good for buying more shares. Anyway have cashed mine in now, I don't like seeing profits evapourate.

[stepone68] 26/8/2020 07:39

"If talks have fallen through, they have a duty to inform the market. It is obviously price sensitive"

Are you sure? I've seen companies before announce talks and then only in the annual results is it confirmed that they didn't go anywhere. Do you have a link to the rules on AIM?

[peart] 25/8/2020 20:54

I'm with you serratia, there's a few of us on this panel who are like minded with this Company. Good post. £25-£30 for an imminent bid - probably higher than that in a year or so, come what may, so long as the trend continues and the market is orderly at that time.

[steptoes yard] 25/8/2020 20:11

Unless he has an urgent need for £100m on deposit then there is merit in continuing. His participation may be less than other members of the family, it may not. It's not like they are attending a salt mine each day. They could up the dividend (just think how big his divi payout is) or do Special Divis ( as previous) or if he is keen to accrue some cash could trim his holdings gradually under orderly market conditions (there will be plenty of takers)
Just can't see the benefits of wanting out completely given where they could be in three to five years, that is of course if they act generationally.

[serratia] 25/8/2020 19:38

Time line, comments/thoughts -

Jan 29th price £4.00. Jan 30th H1 results, price up to £4.45. Drifts down. March 16th , announce that H2 started well, price moves slightly £3.75 up to £3.95. Drifts up to £4.45 on May 6th. May 7th - say will beat market expectations , price jumps 33% to £5.82. Keeps moving up to £8.10 on June 12th. June 15th - results, price jumps 51% to £12.25.
I was expecting £10.50 if the market looked at the whole year figures, £14 if it focused only on the second half. June 16th £12.50 , June 17th offer announced, price moved to £14.70. Maybe a £2.20 bid premium ? August 5th £15.50. If BOTB were not interested I assume they'd have RNS'd that talks ended so I guess they're still in talks. August 20th £17.25, today £16.75.
At the time of the bid talks I had a target well in excess of £14.70 for H1 figures to October. On July 17th after 1 month they started to increase marketing. Just guesswork - They've opened the books and after a month of talks they want a higher price than the indicative offer(s)? End of July revenue rising so they can disclose Q1 figures and show things accelerating. August 19th revenue well up and they ease off. August should produce very good figures.
At the time of the talks announcement the price was £12.50. What would a prospective offer look like? With growth accelerating it couldn't have been too low or the talks would have ended either early or within the 28 days. Total guess £17.50 walk away, maybe £20 keeps talks going. I'd hope for a higher figure and pushing the marketing/revenue was used to back up a higher demand. Could they get £25 or even £30 ? Depends obviously on the buyer. I think they could justify £25.
On the other side the family own most of the shares with the CEO having over 4m, over 50% and the chairman from memory over 800k. The chairman is not a youngster and might want to cash in. The CEO has over £75m at today's price. At £25 he'd get £110m either way he'll be wealthy so does he want to continue running the company, would he be happy with £75m, would he try for £110m? Maybe he'd settle for under £25 he'd still be a very rich man.
So, who knows ? My model is looking upwards from £17.50 after H1 results.

All just thoughts, no advice intended.

[investographer] 25/8/2020 19:03

If talks have fallen through, they have a duty to inform the market. It is obviously price sensitive.

[peart] 25/8/2020 18:27

We may get a short term drop in the absence of a bid but if/when advised of this, along with perhaps cracking numbers which may be announced with it, this would cushion any blow. Longer term I'm sure if the current trends continue long term holders won't be disappointed.

[ryanc106] 25/8/2020 16:08

I agree! Any offer probably wasn’t up to scratch and thus fallen through to be honest.. if there was an appropriate offer it would of been announced by now.
I think the results will be fantastic however and will probably get to £25-30 under its own steam imo.
We’ll see

[investographer] 25/8/2020 14:14

It is pretty simple. Prior to the FSP process, most people bought in as an investment.When the FSP process was announced, punters came in on a 50/50 betIf talks fail, I will assume that many of these short term punters will move on at a loss. Very illiquid stock that will drop quite heavily. The company should have made an announcement by now.

[steptoes yard] 25/8/2020 10:16

Peart, im racking my brains as to what the rationale will be for sellers of BOTB in the event of the FSP concluding without a bid!

[peart] 24/8/2020 18:54

One other thought, if the company can show, say 0.375, then possibly 1.00, then 1.50 eps the market normally awards a much higher p/e for such growth. Have they found a great formula after many years of trying - maybe. If they have and with it been a web based company with high returns on equity, then very high prices can result. Time will tell, but I'm definitely not selling!