Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[luckymouse] 25/9/2014 14:58

If 2200 goes its an H&S to 1800 theoretically - seems crazy to even say that with such a great co but that's one potential chart scenario to keep an eye on. Cant see much shorting so maybe cyclical/technical?

Never found british bulls particularly reliable btw - candles generally don't give direction - better for entry in conjunction with spt/rst - plus I suspect their returns are calculated without spread or charges

[maurillac] 25/9/2014 14:56

on my watchlist this one. however the departure of the fd with no explanation is bound to, in my view, effect sentiment. if it was because of a fundamental disagreement about direction/strategy it would be good if bkg came out and said so.
m

[garycook] 25/9/2014 14:45

BKG,Being shorted.Down to 2200.Will be a buyer there,puchased some last week at 23.24,also British Bulls have a Short on the Stock.

[jml49] 25/9/2014 14:42

This is now reaching support level from earlier this year. No debt, PE below 10, high yield and product highly in demand. What is not to like?

[luckymouse] 25/9/2014 14:40

CR - you still in here perhaps? The oblique entry line you drew previously is worth a look.

ATB LM

[luckymouse] 25/9/2014 14:35

Level alert just went off - 2315 is the very long term log trend channel spt on my chart - the combination of that going plus the FD (whats that all about?) changes the dynamic significantly imho.

I think BKG is a brilliant co with a great div and undervalued - but the cyclical forces (ie the opinions of the fdm mgrs) seems to be more powerful

[scottishfield] 23/9/2014 12:33

good buy points around here possibly.

[scottishfield] 19/9/2014 09:13

better today

[r ball] 08/9/2014 20:39

Personal or business reason? Very soon after AGM. As a shareholder I hope it's the former.

[grigor] 08/9/2014 19:41

FD leaves suddenly - reason?

[chinese investor] 02/9/2014 08:09

The Group currently expects to remain ungeared following the dividend payment of 90 pence per share on 26 September 2014.

A further 180 pence per share is payable as dividends in order to meet the first milestone of paying 434 pence per share by September 2015.

The Board has previously indicated that it will aim to make regular dividend distributions where conditions permit and is on track to meet this commitment.

Looking to the next milestone of 433 pence per share in September 2018, the Board intends to meet a proportion of this through regular dividend payments, where market conditions permit.

[scottishfield] 01/9/2014 17:44

Open door to Berkeley Group
By Harriet Mann | Mon, 1st September 2014 - 12:10
Open door to Berkeley Group

Berkeley Group (BKG) has had a strong start to the year and, while the market has returned to normal levels and the order book has remained flat since April, there's enough here to pique interest in the London housebuilder.

"Demand for the right product with good design in the best locations has remained resilient," said founder and chairman Tony Pidgley, "and, reflecting this, forward sales have been maintained at the levels previously reported."

Admittedly, an order book of £2.2 billion was a little light of JPMorgan's estimate. Of course, the double-digit quarter-on-quarter growth rate seen last year was unsustainable, and it's worth remembering that quarterly numbers can often be skewed by timing of new developments coming on stream for reservation.

Berkeley has delivered around 15,750 new homes in London and the south east of England over the past five years and has made further progress extending its portfolio of land over the last three months. The firm has over 11,000 plots and an attributable potential gross margin of around £1.5 billion at the last year-end.

There's strong operating cash flow, too, boosted by the disposal of its ground rent assets from just under £100 million in June, and the group reckons it can remain debt-free after the £122 million dividend pay-out later his month, worth 90p per share.

Another 180p is needed to meet Berkeley's special dividend target of 434p per share by September 2015. Its next milestone of 433p per share in September 2018, should be partly met with regular dividend payments, said the firm.

Using JPMorgan forecasts and a share price of 2,398p, Berkeley shares trade at a big premium to net assets, but on less than 9 times forward earnings. There's a 7.5% dividend yield, too. Riding out short-term weakness could pay off here.

[leeson31] 01/9/2014 07:36

nice ims



and this bit:

" The disposal of a portfolio of the Group's ground rent assets for GBP99.8 million, which completed on 17(th) June 2014, has contributed to a strong operating cash inflow over the period. The Group currently expects to remain ungeared following the dividend payment of 90 pence per share (GBP121.7 million) on 26 September 2014.

A further 180 pence per share is payable as dividends in order to meet the first milestone of paying 434 pence per share by September 2015. The Board has previously indicated that it will aim to make regular dividend distributions where conditions permit and is on track to meet this commitment. Looking to the next milestone of 433 pence per share in September 2018, the Board intends to meet a proportion of this through regular dividend payments, where market conditions permit.

With a strong balance sheet and land bank Berkeley is well positioned to continue to invest in the business and deliver returns to shareholders. Earnings this year are anticipated to be in line with current market expectations." "

[luckymouse] 28/8/2014 16:00

That's only a partial technical view - that could also potentially be interpreted as a bear flag within the 3yr log channel - if 2400 goes it will fall to major support at 2300 - if it holds it will rise to he top of the flag.

Fundamentals & yield are sensational - and BKG operate in the wealth segment which is a partially special case - but not immune to macro or cyclical effects - hence the discount.

Politicians just want to win election no matter what - so they want to sustain the house boom as bust = lose - hence they have no genuine intention of transforming/ relaxing planning rules.
Carney however has it in for cyclical house builders (strategy in particular is talking them down) as they build something like four times as many houses per capita in Canada - he thinks UK market is unfairly distorted and overly margined (and rightly so)

Ultimately the main cycle will come down to when the mature US bull finally goes pop - and whether the huge wall of QE & hedge fund money that's falsely propping it up keeps on going. The central bankers know that when rates go up & QE stops the parties over - no way you can compete long term with billions of asians who work & study twice as hard for a quarter of the money and copy any technical advantage - so central bankers trying to put off the inevitable and are in between a rock, a hard place & a sharp object.

They have literally no choice but to keep it going as long as possible as the alternative is an economic bear.

[plasybryn] 20/8/2014 19:05

Thanks Owenski for showing my point visually. So much stronger to see it. Thanks

[plasybryn] 20/8/2014 18:26

Still in channel. Nice opportunity IMO

[richard98765] 20/8/2014 13:32

Overreaction by markets IMO. Base rate rise is expected early next year anyway so nothing's actually changed. Hopefully well get a bounce on this soon.

[redips2] 20/8/2014 13:17

Spring maybe .

[chinese investor] 20/8/2014 13:07

Interest Rate Fears !

[bonnard] 20/8/2014 09:02

Yes xd today which accounts for 90p drop of the share price.

[melody9999] 20/8/2014 08:50

are we ex div for the 90p today? looking at results it seemed to be 22 AUG

[montyhedge] 15/8/2014 08:22

Analyst on CNBC said housbuilders look good value, election next year, all parties want more houses to be built.

[scottishfield] 15/8/2014 08:21

looking good (as is BDEV)