Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[josels] 20/6/2009 23:34

26 of June results

[josels] 19/6/2009 13:06

here we go

[gsands] 19/6/2009 12:58

Sector taking some cheer from TW. results.

My own findings are that there is still a suprising level of residual bullishness in the property market.

Evidence 1.

Went to see a piece of land near Canterbury. Rural, no permission to build, but land had remains of a small 3 bed workers cottage on it (burnt down - no roof) which ought to set a precedent and make planning achieveable. Plot size was c 10m by 10m. i.e. 100 m2. Auction guide price £50k......went for £152k!!!!

Evidence 2.

Went to see some lock up garages in a residential street in a small village called Plumpton. Agent felt there was some scope to get planning to construct a small one bedroom bungalow in place of the 4 single lock up garages. A call in to the local planning office suggested that gaining permission would be by no means an easy feat. Planning officer raised concerns about the smallness of the plot and the would be adjacency of the new dwelling to existing properties in the road.

Anyway - that did not seem to deter buyers and this lot, with a guide price of £12 - £15k ended up going for c£29K!!!!


Conclusion: There are some residual bulls/early to party bears shooting their wads prematurely.

[josels] 18/6/2009 13:43

common go to 850 by close tomorro please, shorter should be closing.

[lafiamma] 16/6/2009 07:37

Guy,

Currently I have a portfolio hedged with a mixture of shorts and longs & I think BKG will outperform the market over the next 12 months, but if the market retests it's lows then BKG may well hit 600p; I would be a fundamental buyer at that point, yes, and would probably reduce my hedges too

[mindthegap365] 15/6/2009 19:22

A W Pidgley, PIG wriggly

[gsands] 15/6/2009 19:19

Laf,

You a fundamental buyer at 600p?

[bones30] 15/6/2009 12:19

Its very SAAD

[honiton] 12/6/2009 17:02

is this not a buy. forced seller pushing price down!

[lafiamma] 11/6/2009 07:42

Just to add also that Pidgley & colleagues have always been workaholics and now approaching 65 I would not blame them if they were to sell shares in future to reap the rewards of their labour

[lafiamma] 11/6/2009 07:14

Guy,

If you read the director sales RNS, you will see that they acquired some 3m shares via an incentive plan, which creates a tax liability. They then sold enough to raise cash to pay that liability. This has been going on for many years. You should not treat it as a director sale.

[jonwig] 10/6/2009 18:41

GS: not mine, RWA. Alas!

[gsands] 10/6/2009 16:48

jonwig,

Thanks.

Your RWA is looking good. Did you keep that one?

[hamsterape] 10/6/2009 16:41

Aviva just sold about 4m shares out of a holding of 13.5m.

Edit: Oops - wrong board! Should be Barratt Developments

[jonwig] 10/6/2009 16:23

GS - was out in April.
Looked to buy back in yesterday but blinked and it rose too fast for me.

Agreed housebuilders generally are looking overbought.

[gsands] 10/6/2009 15:51

Here is some info:

Barratt Developments- I'm taking profits after director sales at Berkeley Group
May 1, 2009 in Uncategorized | Tags: Barratt Developments, housebuilders

Barratt (BDEV, 144p) are up 90% absolute and 60% relative since January 15th when a price of 75p catalysed my positive view: 'Barratt- look for buying opportunities'.

We've just seen a few minor directors sales at Berkeley Group Holdings, with Pidgeley, Perrins and Carey selling 600,000 shares between them at 960p, reducing their holdings to a combined 6.48m shares (April 29th- source London Stock Exchange).

So these share sales are insignificant in % terms, but I consider them an indicator of a likeley 'breather' in the Housebuilding sectors performance.

So I'm happy to take my profits on Barratt Developments.

View on Barratt Developments: Neutral.

[gsands] 10/6/2009 15:49

HA,

Yes - you're right. It does seem that there is a distressed seller out there.

What is of particular concern is why the directors sold.

Has anyone done any research on this i.e. how much stock did they sell and were any reasons given at the time?

[hamsterape] 10/6/2009 15:30

Yesterday's plunge was a liquidation by the brokers of SAAD's cfd
position, apparently, as his assets are frozen and therefore unable
to fund any margin calls - so don't read too much into the price drop.

I'd still like to know why the directors all sold out in April, though.

[gsands] 10/6/2009 15:09

I think nearly all of us are waiting for some kind of a correction in this market, which in the short term doesn't seem to be happening.

Perhaps when the quantitive easing has abated we will see the market sink under gravity once again.

For the time being I am out, because I can't make any sense of things.

[lafiamma] 10/6/2009 07:48

Yesterday was a capitulation candle. Make sure you hedge it with a short on something like Next though, overall market doesn't look very healthy to me...