Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 17/3/2017 08:40

Berkeley signals surprisingly strong profits in ‘stabilising’ London property market

[raffles the gentleman thug] 17/3/2017 08:17

Fun will be when they raise the dividend guidance later in year and folks realise that at £30 a share the forward yield was around 9%

[dbensimon] 17/3/2017 08:14

Lovely day!!! Happy days.

[this_is_me] 17/3/2017 07:52

(The 24% short in CLLN will have to be covered at some point.)

Our chairman knows how to run the company and manage the stockmarket well. It's a pity he is such a plonker when it comes to politics. He hasn't forgiven the country for proving him wrong about his expectation of a dire and immediate collapse being the result of voting to leave the Evil Empire.

[garycook] 17/3/2017 07:50

RTGT,That is why the share price is under £30,and not around £35 where it should be,and the board of BKG currently agree,hence the buy backs.

[exmooroil] 17/3/2017 07:50

Raffles,

From the Trading Statement:

"Berkeley is in a strong position and remains on target to meet its ambition to deliver at least £3.0 billion of pre-tax profit over the five years ending 30 April 2021"

[rcturner2] 17/3/2017 07:49

GC, certainly seems that way!

[raffles the gentleman thug] 17/3/2017 07:43

Positive FT article citing London recovery and on track to deliver £3bn pretax - but missing the all important words "at least" which should precede the £3bn number

[garycook] 17/3/2017 07:28

RCT2,Much better company than CLLN ?

[rcturner2] 17/3/2017 07:16

Pre-tax profits for the year ended 30 April 2017 are expected to be at the top end of analysts' expectations, with the actual outturn dependent upon completion timing on Berkeley's larger developments. A similar level of profitability is anticipated for the year ending 30 April 2018.

[1gw] 17/3/2017 07:08

Very good I think - especially the comment on the level of profitability for the year ending April 2018.

[r ball] 17/3/2017 07:04

Encouraging.

[1gw] 16/3/2017 16:24

Nice to see a bit of strength into the close ahead of tomorrow's update.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 15/3/2017 11:30

I'm not sure they will bother buying this close to the trading update phoenix ... i've been buying myself this morning and just feel sector is coming down on mortgage data for January which was uninspiring save for the new build sector.

I continue to take the view that the sector is too cheap relative to historic valuations, where its as much as 20% cheaper than the five year average.

And then on BKG specifically the EV of the company remains only about £800m more than the cumulative pre-tax profits they are all but guaranteed to record through to 2021. I assume they will not do much more than reiterate the recent upgraded earnings guidance in the upcoming trading update.

[jrphoenixw2] 15/3/2017 11:17

added: Looks like buying-back from 2890p starting circa 10.40am

[jrphoenixw2] 15/3/2017 10:31

BKG is the 'Stock of the day' over on Spreadex. Note though, that means it's featured rather than tipped. Gives a useful look-back over the past year and thoughts as to Friday.
hxxps://www.spreadex.com/financials/market-analysis/financial-trading-blog

It's a short article but due to copyright I won't copy/paste it all. I did find this para interesting...
'In terms of Friday’s update, investors will be eager to hear if there has been any revival in demand in the last few months. Given that last week Foxtons saw its profits more than halve thanks to London’s property slump, however, they may be left wanting.'

[1gw] 15/3/2017 10:24

Well we're solidly in buyback territory now, so there should be some protection there. Fed and Dutch elections maybe causing some near-term anxiety but not long to wait for the trading statement.

[2350220] 15/3/2017 10:20

Damn, thought I was a clever clogs for adding more at 2913, now not looking so bright after all.
John

[r ball] 14/3/2017 17:03

Berkeley don't tend to communicate much. It's the forecast that's critical.

[dr_smith] 14/3/2017 16:12

Phoenix:
>.. what a Trading Update is, what gets announced.
IME it is a statement of fact read off from the accounts since last report.
I/we all like to see an outlook/forecast, by nature it is typically not factual but expectation, so, although my main interest, I regard any such statement as a bonus, but would say this is not strictly part of a trading update.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 14/3/2017 16:10

igw ... sounds like a good strategy - most of sector still trading around 20% below five year averages with a supportive Government and BoE for the foreseeable future.

[1gw] 14/3/2017 16:06

I've bought a third tranche just now at 29.59. Feels close to share buyback price again and I'm hoping for great things from Friday's TU. Apart from the specifics of the BKG situation with the cash generation and the comments on undervaluation, I think the Bovis situation has legs in terms of perhaps scaring out some of the short positions scattered around the housebuilder sector. So Article 50 notwithstanding I'm hoping for a bit of a squeeze higher and now have housebuilders at over 20% of my portfolio.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 14/3/2017 15:56

Phoenix ... it might be worth looking up last years RNS from 18th March 2016 which will give you an idea of what to expect. They should maintain their recently increased guidance of £3bn of pre-tax profits and give an idea of reservation and cancellation rates. I imagine they will guide to upper end of forecasts on profits, since to attain a cumulative £3bn involves them achieving CAGR of around 8% at pretax level last time I looked - but in all probability some of this might be more front end loaded given reservations made in 2013 and 2014. But generally should be positive announcement.

They may say something on the dividend programme or may wait until later in year.

[jrphoenixw2] 14/3/2017 12:33

I was trying to figure our what to expect from the Trading Update due on Friday. Or more to the point trying to remind myself what a Trading Update is, what gets announced.
From what I see it's a like mini semi-annual AGM. Just in case anyone is similarly wondering, here is a summary of what was discussed at the previous one in March-16