Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[jrphoenixw2] 13/3/2017 13:34

Strikingly vertiginous +20p, 2960-2980, between 12.30>1pm. Someone went in in size... that said volume at 1.30pm seems lower average @ 'Vol/Avg 306,888/690,394'

Added: following the Time/Vol on Yahoo/Finance suggests the rise was on the back of just 16k of purchases. So maybe instead of buy-backs, the offer-side simply evaporated.... ho hum

[jrphoenixw2] 13/3/2017 10:56

Yep, you're probably right, the 12-Mo Target Px will likely show up on DL in a couple of days. What stood out was the frequency of DBs reiterations, 4-Jan, 16-Jan, 8-Feb with another this morning.
Friday is going to be veeery interesting. London is holding up very well so forward sales should be good. And either BKG have stated uses for their higher forward profits, or they have to hike the divs.
But we'll see. What with a possible triggering of A50/BREXIT [Tue/Wed?], Dutch elections [Wed], an expected FOMC hike [Thu] and BKG updating on Friday it's an interesting week!

[raffles the gentleman thug] 13/3/2017 10:32

Hi phoenix ... I think Deutsche is doing nothing more than reiterating their long held stance on the shares. Trading update should be solid, though anyone's guess whether their upgrade the dividend programme - they last upgraded it fourteen months ago in December 2015, and since they have materially extended their earnings guidance and duration.

I continue to believe its cheap relative to the pretax earnings they are set to book through to 2021, and cheap relative to the whole sector on that same analysis.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 13/3/2017 04:03

U.K. House Prices Rise Fastest in a Year as London Rebounds

[jrphoenixw2] 12/3/2017 17:33

It gets better, I hadn't realised Bovis is being pursued by two suitors...


'Bovis Homes is at the centre of £3bn bidding battle after spurning competing merger offers from rival housebuilders Galliford Try and Redrow. Shares in Bovis are expected to surge on Monday after it emerged the troubled construction firm has been courted by two suitors.
The FTSE 250- listed company, which is currently without a chief executive and is led by chairman Ian Tyler, is holding talks with Galliford, which has already made an all-share proposal that Bovis spurned for being too low.
At the same time, Bovis said it had also rejected a cash-and-stock offer from Redrow, the listed housebuilder that is 40pc controlled by founder Steve Morgan.'
[Telgraph]

[jrphoenixw2] 12/3/2017 10:54

Out of interest BKG market capn [4,105Bn] puts it in 5th position in the FTSE-250. It also makes it larger than the bottom five in the FTSE-100.

re: potential raising of div guidance [per RT comment^] - Friday's trading update could be interesting.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 12/3/2017 10:07

I got a couple of thoughts here:

1) I would have thought Bovis is gonna find it hard to resist any approach from Redrow given its recent struggles and shareholder antipathy toward it, e.g., from the likes of Schroders;

2) its undoubtedly going to help support sector valuations; and

3) I think its only a matter of time before we see more corporate action from the Chinese in the sector if valuations remain as modest as they are. And I think if this does happen BKG is gonna be the prime asset to buy.

Re BKG its still undoubtedly too cheap, and I believe it still needs to raise dividend guidance quite substantially

[r ball] 12/3/2017 09:19

I would imagine this will take sorting out. Hardly in the same market place as BKG. Sector confidence and read across though may underpin valuations. Expecting tick up on Monday?

[raffles the gentleman thug] 12/3/2017 01:44

Redrow swoops on ailing house builder Bovishttp://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/redrow-swoops-on-ailing-house-builder-bovis-qp65qxg5l

[jrphoenixw2] 10/3/2017 14:30

Yep, I take your point RT...
I note that three days [so far] this week they've been paying up to 2950
And it could be the turn-around from c9.50am this morning [when it dipped to c2930] was more purchases...
----
7th March [ie notified 8-Mar]
Date of transaction: 7 March 2017
Number of Shares purchased: 134,861
Highest price paid per Share: 2950p
Lowest price paid per Share: 2922p
Volume weighted average price paid per Share: 2938.4277p
----
Date of transaction: 8 March 2017
Number of Shares purchased: 121,523
Highest price paid per Share: 2950p
Lowest price paid per Share: 2922p
Volume weighted average price paid per Share: 2937.7285p
-----
Date of transaction: 9 March 2017
Number of Shares purchased: 118,319
Highest price paid per Share: 2950p
Lowest price paid per Share: 2923p
Volume weighted average price paid per Share: 2941.6254p
Broker: UBS
The Company intends to hold the purchased Shares in Treasury.
Following the purchase of these Shares, the Company holds 2,229,014 of its Shares in Treasury and has 137,928,169 Shares in issue (excluding Treasury Shares).

[raffles the gentleman thug] 10/3/2017 07:05

Another 118,319 shares bought back for £3.5m or an average of 2941p. Bringing share count under 138m. They are not messing about here - in fact this has to be one of the more aggressive buyback programmes I have seen

[raffles the gentleman thug] 09/3/2017 08:25

Yeah but looks like UBS working a mandate for them to buy no more than 15% to 20% of days volume which is probably a more sensible strategy, and today is a weak day in the market - albeit largely commodity induced.

[jrphoenixw2] 09/3/2017 08:11

I'd have thought the buy-backs wld create some element of price floor, but here we are [2920p@8.09am] below the lowest px paid yesterday...

[jrphoenixw2] 09/3/2017 07:25

Interesting to see they're paying up to 2950 again, right around yesterday's intra-day high.

---------------------------------------------------
Date of transaction: 8 March 2017
Number of Shares purchased: 121,523
Highest price paid per Share: 2950p
Lowest price paid per Share: 2922p
Volume weighted average price paid per Share: 2937.7285p
Broker: UBS
The Company intends to hold the purchased Shares in Treasury.
Following the purchase of these Shares, the Company holds 2,110,695 of its Shares in Treasury and has 138,046,488 Shares in issue (excluding Treasury Shares).

[raffles the gentleman thug] 09/3/2017 07:08

Another £3.6m spent buying 121,523 shares at average 2938p bringing buybacks this period to £14m and share count almost down to 138m

[jrphoenixw2] 08/3/2017 11:54

I just found this article by chance, it's long and deeply/financially detailed but might be of interest to those who get into the detail of BKGs year-on-year accounts.


'Berkeley Group: The Party Is Over'

[r ball] 08/3/2017 08:09

Quite. I would suggest target price of £45 gross of dividends.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 08/3/2017 08:05

I'd be happy with that Gary.

So far they have spent £10.344m on buybacks in this interim period, which reduces the dividend distribution from £139.270m to £128.926m. But the good news is that because the share count is down the nest distribution payment (assuming no further buybacks) is currently 93.3p.

Personally I remain of the opinion there is significant upside to the dividend programme in any event

[r ball] 08/3/2017 08:02

Foxton read across today.

[garycook] 08/3/2017 07:43

This confirms,and I believe that TP,also believes like me that BKG are worth at least £35 a share.The board can spent all the dividend money on buy backs.Well worth it IMHO.

[garycook] 08/3/2017 07:38

The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (the "Company")

Transaction in own shares



The Company announces that on 7 March 2017 it purchased 134,861 of its ordinary shares of 5p each ("Shares") through UBS, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the Company's Annual General Meeting on 6 September 2016.



Date of transaction: 7 March 2017



Number of Shares purchased: 134,861



Highest price paid per Share: 2950p



Lowest price paid per Share: 2922p



Volume weighted average price paid per Share: 2938.4277p



Broker: UBS



The Company intends to hold the purchased Shares in Treasury.