Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[phoenixw2] 15/12/2016 10:21

At time of writing BKG is -8p intra-day, despite going ex-div today for a pound. That % fall seems about par for the course today across the house-building sector.

Can anyone spot an error in this apparent contradiction? Thanks!

[bluemango] 15/12/2016 09:51

Bluemountain helping Odey to cover, by increasing their short position.

[curriedquaker] 08/12/2016 18:24

Pictet have placed new shorts in the last couple of days, but ODEY have been reducing their shorts, not only in BGK but in other positions. Sounds as though ODEY are reigning things in.

[montyhedge] 08/12/2016 14:10

I think shareprice rallied on bear closing, now finished. Perhaps new shorts being placed.

[phoenixw2] 07/12/2016 19:22

From today's Evening standard, incl quote from BKG:

[woodhawk] 07/12/2016 13:10

Bit of profit taking more like... I have and will be back in shortly.

[phoenixw2] 07/12/2016 11:16

Hammer, simplest if I quote from Stockopedia:

'What is a 'Hammer'
A hammer is a price pattern in candlestick charting that occurs when a security trades significantly lower than its opening, but rallies later in the day to close either above or near its opening price. This pattern forms a hammer-shaped candlestick, in which the body is at least half the size of the tail or wick.'

...or as I consider it, the stock has endured weakness during the day but has fought back and ended with a distinctly bullish note. In the absence of material overnight news the bullishness is then often inclined to continue the next day, esp. if the end rally was on higher than average volume. Or so the theory goes.

'Gapping' [higher or lower]:
'What is a 'Gap'
A gap is a break between prices on a chart that occurs when the price of a stock makes a sharp move up or down with no trading occurring in between. Gaps can be created by factors such as regular buying or selling pressure, earnings announcements, a change in an analyst's outlook or any other type of news release.'

In short: A filled [ie retraced/cancelled] gap suggests a side-ways market.

See the above with elaboration on both and all the others at hxxp://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp

[raffles the gentleman thug] 07/12/2016 09:33

what that mean phoenix ... is it going up ? EV is still only £3.85bn for over £3bn in free cashflow in five years 80% of which is guaranteed so still viewing it rather favourably here and expecting to see £32 at least

[phoenixw2] 07/12/2016 09:17

Oh well that didn't last long lol, it then retraced down below 2908 thus 'filling the gap' and so negating the support it had created... :-p

[phoenixw2] 07/12/2016 09:02

Two bullish points of interest:
- From a technical analysis perspective, the FTSE closed yesterday with a hammer formation candle.
- BKG closed last night @ 2908, and 'gapped higher' on the open this morning @ 2931.

[curriedquaker] 06/12/2016 15:37

ODEY starting to unwind their short position BKG, this could really take off over the remainder of this week.

[phoenixw2] 06/12/2016 15:20

+4% and change intra-day at time of writing. And through 2900 which I'd previously mulled as potential re-promotion territory. Of course you can't consider re-promotion without the dynamic context of the other contenders, but it's looking pretty rosy right now IMHO.

I suspect that the growing risk of re-promotion would force bears to capitulate, as the price rise on re-entering the FTSE-100 would blow them clean out of the water.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/12/2016 14:37

yep they'll rue the day they ever messed with this one

[tonytyke2] 06/12/2016 14:23

Squeezing the shorts now!

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/12/2016 07:55

Thx pheonix much appreciated. FYI now disclosed Odey did commence covering Friday but only 0.03% of market cap or about £1m versus outstanding short of 1.09%.

One can't be too dismissive of shorters though, since there may be many motivations for going short, in both an absolute ad relative sense. So some short positions may well be as simple as pairing against something they like better in the sector like TW and attempting to play a perceived valuation anomaly without the sector specific risk. But either way those trades are now broken.

[phoenixw2] 06/12/2016 07:01

Shorting is so philosophically different from plain ol' LTBH I hadn't given the shorters approach much thought, so thanks for that.
re: FTSE reshuffles. Apparently the next is Dec 19th but the victims [incl Travis Perkins] and heroes were already decided on Nov 29th

In 2016 the FTSE-100 constituent market capn cut-off dates were 1-Mar, 31-May, 30-Aug, 29-Nov. And the changes were published the next day.
The actual reshuffles were 21-Mar, 20-Jun, 19-Sep, 19-Dec.
[hxxp://www.ftse.com/products/downloads/FTSE_FAQ_Document_UK_2016.pdf]

I can't see the 2017 dates yet but based on 2016 estimate the market capn. cut-off date will be between Mon 27th-Feb to Wed 1st-Mar with the actual reshuffle taking place three weeks later.

ps. Wikipedia says: 'The constituents of the FTSE are determined quarterly, on the Wednesday after the first Friday of the month in March, June, September and December. The values used to make the changes to the indices are taken at the close of business the night before the review.'
[That is reference-linked to the FTSE Russell website, but as that on-link is dead, I can't link it from the definitive source.]

[raffles the gentleman thug] 05/12/2016 19:14

Phoenix ... in my experience one would normally expect those shorting BKG to have sufficient conviction to add when it goes against them, but I think it is quite telling that nobody would appear to be doing that yet, despite the near 20% run in the shares from the very recent lows, which leads me to conclude shorters will sooner or later give up on it, especially when the company begins to disclose its own purchases.

As I posted before the trouble is that the results were merely in line, nothing more, meaning nobody short it had actually done their homework in the first place. If they had they would have understood what the company had been saying for a year that £2bn of pretax earnings deliverable 2016 through 2018 was already effectively in the bag from 2013 and 2014 pre-sold developments which are not seeing any material change in cancellations.

As for the incremental £1bn of earnings which was announced this is predominantly coming from high demand areas in the SE rather than London, which again I think few understand.

Not sure when next FTSE 100 quarterly review is, but must be on the cards shortly, and with a valuation shortly breaking through £4bn, I would have thought it would be a potential promotion candidate.

[phoenixw2] 05/12/2016 18:52

Apparently RTGT, but I don't see the shorters details in the granularity that you do. However at some point they're going to have to capitulate, and THAT is going to be interesting. The stock can't be at all far off re-promotion territory; that would drive the message well and truly home :)

[rcturner2] 05/12/2016 16:50

anley this link shows a list of hedge funds that have 3 year performance well over what you are stating as the hurdle rate.

[anley] 05/12/2016 16:36

I am fed up with repeating myself but these hedge fund people have had their day - find me one which has made anyone serious money and by that I mean 10% over the S&P and after taking their 20% in generated profits.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 05/12/2016 15:37

but they are doing squat at the moment phoenix ... just hoping the pain goes away with no conviction to add to their shorts - and what's really hurting them was that the numbers were only ever inline !

Meanwhile heading for close above 200 day moving average for first time since June 23rd

[phoenixw2] 05/12/2016 15:29

To mix metaphors: The bears are currently being squeezed out of the woods.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 05/12/2016 15:18

so there is a serious pain trade going on ...