Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[speedsgh] 08/2/2018 13:30

Poor old MK. It's a bit like the grim reaper coming to town!

[s2lowner] 08/2/2018 13:16

Thats ok for milton keynes but what about everywhere else :)

[aleman] 08/2/2018 12:04

BEG just opened their 49th office, in Milton Keynes. 5 opened in last 12 months.

[aleman] 02/2/2018 16:28

UK 10-year gilts yielded 1.19% on Jan 1st . Now 1.57%. The squeeze is on.

[eeza] 27/1/2018 21:59

Here's true insanity.

[aleman] 26/1/2018 09:55

Q4 insolvency numbers show corporate down 11% and personal up 10%. FY2017 show a second year of increases - 4% and 9%. Does the slight acceleration in personal insolvencies in Q4 tie in with the slight acceleration in Claimant Count increases?

[aleman] 24/1/2018 10:03

The marginal upward trend in Claimant Count over the last two years accelerated in November and December. It looks like the next recession might be starting.

[aleman] 19/1/2018 20:55

Year Ending Revenue
(£m) Pre-tax
(£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Growth Div Yield
2018-04-30 51.46 5.48 3.64p 20.1 2.0 10% 2.35p 3.2%
2019-04-30 53.59 6.32 4.05p 18.1 1.6 11% 2.50p 3.4%
2020-04-30 54.98 7.34 4.82p 15.2 0.8 19% 2.80p 3.8%

[aleman] 17/1/2018 08:15

BIG rise in companies in distress in Q4.

[runthejoules] 16/1/2018 22:35

The Company has been advised that Paul Stanley, Regional Managing Partner at Begbies Traynor Group plc, has disposed of 22,414 ordinary 5 pence shares in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 70.00 pence. That's £15,690. Not a massive amount but if this continues down towards 65p I'll be adding in case of downturn.

[aleman] 15/1/2018 08:05

Can PWC manage Carillion on its own? Will it subcontract? How many suppliers will be tipped over the edge?

[aleman] 11/1/2018 09:44

B of E reports credit conditions continue to deteriorate - mainly unsecured.



Default rates and losses given default were reported to have increased for total unsecured lending, with further increases for both expected in Q1. In Q4, these increases were reported to have been slightly larger for credit card relative to other unsecured lending, although the survey balances were positive for both (Chart 6).

• Lenders reported that default rates on loans to corporates increased slightly for small businesses, while remaining unchanged for medium and large PNFCs. Losses given default on corporate loans were reported to have been unchanged in Q4 for medium and large businesses, but decreased slightly for small businesses.

While unsecured consumer defaults have been rising for two years, the rise in small businesses defaulting is a change of trend

[aleman] 09/1/2018 20:01

I posted ealier that banks had been tightening on unsecured credit for 4 quarters. Secured lending had stopped expanding but was not yet tightening.



Well, now it looks like mortgage lending probably is tightening, particularly for 90% plus LTV.

[topvest] 09/1/2018 19:49

Negative interest rates a possibility?!

[lefrene] 09/1/2018 09:54

A slump where you can't cut interest rates to stimulate activity could be very nasty.

[topvest] 08/1/2018 19:20

Yes, I think we are at a similar point in the cycle to 2007. We are near or at the top.

[lefrene] 08/1/2018 11:37

Aleman, I noticed recently that my Bank {Lloyds) have chopped my 'unauthorised' allowance from £500 to £200 without so much as a word. I guess it's just another indicator of Banks pulling their horns in?

I feel that vans can be quite a good indicator of general activity since they are at the bottom of the distribution food chain, and perhaps even more of an indicator nowadays given that increasing amounts of consumer spending is online.

Another aspect of the van world is the rapid move to so called self-employed van drivers, the mobile 'gig' economy. These individuals are highly disposable due to the employer having no investment in them as employees. So come a recession unemployment in the sector will happen very quickly, along with large numbers of leased vans becoming available. Interesting times might just be around the corner.

[aleman] 08/1/2018 10:13

Plus a slowly rising £. Plus banks have been tightening on consumer credit offers for 4 quarters (according to B of E). The last recession came after they'd tightened for 5 quarters.

Thanks for the van info.

[lefrene] 08/1/2018 10:01

edmundshaw, the main driver for the shift to lighter vans was the imposition of a maximum speed of 90kph (56mph) on the 7.5 ton category, but also compounded by the requirement to take an HGV driving test, plus the expense of doing an HGV drivers CPC course (£500). So the demand for 3.5 ton vans rose sharply but will now be tailing off, at the same time demand for 7.5 tonners will have fallen off.

The 3.5 ton category have no more regulations than your car, ie no special licence, no CPC, no specific regulated speed, no tachograph, but you do need more of them to get the same work done.

2018 does feel like it might be the year when a lot of chickens begin to come home to roost. A bizarre car market based on personal leases, over priced housing, rising oil, and brexit, plus a possible rise in interest rates.

[topvest] 07/1/2018 10:19

Begbies looks well placed for 2018 in my view.