Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 18/6/2019 16:50

Also worth noting is that some chartists would describe the chart under 76p as a cup and handle, and a breakout from a cup and handle tends to predict a jump of similar size to the handle. In this case that is maybe 16p - by coincidence, the same size as the gap in the chart that is asking to be filled on a breakout.

[aleman] 18/6/2019 16:38

Should be good for a quick jump to 90-95p if it can break 76p. There was little volume in that gap previously. Before or after results?


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[aleman] 18/6/2019 13:42

I'm not surprised these are testing new highs. We look to have panic buying in bond markets this week. UK 10-year gilts down 0.06% to 0.79% today. US Treasury yield curve nearly entirely flat now. They are screaming recession yet the Fed and B of E are still talking about not cutting rates immediately. Always too little, too late and then into crisis mode when it kicks off. Gold is hitting new highs just to rub it in.

[aleman] 11/6/2019 21:58

People have been digging into the ILO numbers and finding lots of things that suggest all is not well but I'll just pick out the main odd trend that hints that things have changed. Companies shed 37k jobs but self-employment turned the overall figure positive. In the last recession, there was a documentary showing people were losing their jobs but not showing up as unemployed as they were being pushed into self-employment even if they could only find work for a few hours a week as photographers or gardeners - but the in-work benefits were better so they were happy to be called self-employed.

[cravencottage] 11/6/2019 20:01

Market makers having a laugh today shaking the tree....Carry on shaking chaps you wont be shaking me out before I've seen the "Comfortably ahead results"

Lots of large trades gone through and in the main all buys 20k , 25k and 26.6k purchases all over 75p a share.


This gives me confidence and all bodes well for results imo.

Probably some of the people high up in BEG tipping their pals off about the good news in the pipeline for results in July..

[aleman] 11/6/2019 10:22

Claimant Count up 23.2k last month. +224.3k on a year ago. +344.3k from Feb 2016 low. It continues to tie in quite well with insolvency trends.

[topvest] 10/6/2019 20:50

Thanks Aleman - yes, another nice bolt-on. Looks like we may get a chart break-out soon in the run up to £1. Recession risk in the next 12m are pretty high in the UK. Also, the odds of a global recession must be shortening, but at least a year-off.

[aleman] 10/6/2019 19:56

Another small acquisition - too small for an RNS. I gather assets are about £400k (almost entirely cash and debtors) and increased about £15k in the last accounting year. Employees rose from 4 to 5. I gather this deal went through at the start of March but has only been announced now, presumably once changes to a BT format have been completed satisfactorily.




Begbies is not on a cheap rating but it is very cash generative and is using that cash to make these regular small acquisitions. The growth in its market seems to be accelerating and it is acquiring market share on top of that. I think we should be due a nice upgrade to forecasts when the results arrive in 4 weeks. The recent rise in the share price may have covered that or not - we shall soon see.

[cravencottage] 10/6/2019 17:17

Wow what a day for BEG.....Is this the beginning of a breakout?

Check out the trades somebody bought 50000 @ 76p and another 46599 @ 76.25p..

Either somebody knows something we don't or the market is waking up to the fact that "comfortably ahead of expectations" continues into 2020 numbers with imminent upgrades on the horizon....

Whatever way you look at it these are exciting times for holders of BEG..

[essentialinvestor] 10/6/2019 12:25

Well that's answered my question from last week!.

[ironstorm] 09/6/2019 19:53

Hear hear.

[cravencottage] 08/6/2019 22:34

Just having a quick look at the forecasts and according to the latest broker notes ( which in imo will be upgraded post results) Beg are forecasting 4.7p Eps for 2019 and 5.4p Eps for 2020...

For the record they've come out and said they're " comfortably ahead of expectations' in their latest Trading statement.


Taking a conservative approach I think we can reckon on a forward price earnings ratio of 15 times 5.4p ( which in all honesty will be closer to 6p eps) but if we apply the maths on a conservative basis we have a forecast mid price of 81p


Now given the state of the economy and all the harbingers pointing to recession I think given the divi increase upon results and inevitable broker upgrades I reckon within the orbit of results the price will be considerably higher than todays..

As always DYOR

CC

[ironstorm] 07/6/2019 08:05

My three most profitable shares, these plus two gold miners. (Not in that order)

Says it all really.

The car industry is imploding and traditionally a harbinger of recession. Yield curve inverted. Aussie meltdown. Global rate cuts. Changes at the helm of at least 3 of the main central banks. I think we are in the final days (weeks) of this bull market. Profits should be protected.

[cravencottage] 06/6/2019 20:25

Ford closing the Bridgend Plant,Honda pulling out of Swindon, Arcadia group looking to shave and save wherever possible, Jamie Oliver's restaurant chain folding. Aviva cutting 1800 jobs (worldwide)

All a prelude to recession imo.

[topvest] 06/6/2019 18:51

I think the outlook for Begbies must be improving. There seems a lot more financial distress around.

[aleman] 06/6/2019 11:02

Looking perky of late. Rising into results in 5 weeks?

[essentialinvestor] 05/6/2019 11:19

Break through 75 pence on results...

[aleman] 22/5/2019 14:25

A bit of economic news - probably more significant than some:

Goverment tax receipts continued their weakening trend last month. Monthly total take was +2.3% versus LastFullYear +4.9%, of which production taxes were 0.0% versus LFY +4.3%. So, total and production tax growth both comfortably exceeded GDP of about +1.8% last tax year, but they have reduced by 2.6% and 4.3% respectively in April, suggesting a slightly negative April GDP print to come on June 10th.

[edwardt] 22/5/2019 12:16

hope the ceo has jamie oliver's team on his speed dial!

[topvest] 15/5/2019 21:01

Agreed, yes its ticking up. Somewhat contradicts the positive total jobs position this week. I guess that the government pushes the stats that suit them and look better.

[aleman] 14/5/2019 14:14

It's not getting any better out there.


Claimant Count +24.7k. Now nearly 1.1m from 750k in early 2016.

[magic] 10/5/2019 14:14

by Edmond Jackson from interactive investor | 10th May 2019 08:11

Critical financial distress among UK companies is rising, which should line the pockets of this solid AIM-listed firm.


Most likely, investors wonder how durable are the prospects and also about its presentation of "adjusted" earnings where Begbies removes transaction costs from making acquisitions, additional to amortisation of intangibles arising (the difference between net assets and price paid), which is fair in terms a business performance comparison if unrealistic in terms of genuine costs a listed company has incurred in its development.

For the six months to 31 October, such transaction costs were £1.4 million, or 41.6% of £3.4 million operating profit, then also a £1.1 million amortisation charge.

hxxps://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/stockwatch-aim-share-hedge-against-recession-ii508212

[aleman] 09/5/2019 17:04

It seems Canaccord increased their target price from 85p to 88p on the update. I can find no detail, though.