Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 12/12/2017 19:22

It now looks a lot more positive here than it has done for a while.

[edmundshaw] 12/12/2017 17:20

I am also holding on to my remaining holding. I will add back on any significant drops, so I am supporting you other guys! :-))

[boonkoh] 12/12/2017 08:34

Great that dividend boosted. Results were mixed. Outlook still optimistic, but cautious.

[aleman] 12/12/2017 07:52

Fairly decent results. Slowly gaining some positive momentum in line with national trends. The dividend increase is welcome and look set to be a touch ahead of forecasts for the year. The fall in net debt bodes well for the next step up through an aquisition, even if it was mostly just a fall in receivables. These look a useful hold when the economy looks like it might be topping out.

[aleman] 28/11/2017 19:09

P&H admin threatens Tesco takeover of Booker.

[aleman] 28/11/2017 18:47

PwC has let 2500 employees go. How will P&H make deliveries to its 90,000 retail customers tomorrow!? This could have some significant consequences.

[boonkoh] 28/11/2017 17:47

Palmer & Harvey administration could be good for Begbie as their intricate web of suppliers and customers are going to feel some stress.

[aleman] 17/11/2017 07:37

Notice of Results

Begbies Traynor Group plc, the business recovery, financial advisory and property services consultancy, will announce its half year results for the six months ended 31 October 2017 on Tuesday, 12 December 2017.

[norbert colon] 13/11/2017 10:11

https://www.simplybusiness.co.uk/knowledge/articles/2017/11/begbies-traynor-warn-500k-businesses-could-be-about-to-go-bust/

[topvest] 10/11/2017 21:08

Well the share price is looking perky. Sort of reinforces the expectation that BEG historically moves up as the "wall of worry" builds. Next year looks a tough one for the UK economy. Of course, whether we have a full blown recession is likely to be driven by the US. But, with low volatility and some companies priced for perfection, there is little capacity for the market to deal with an external shock or maybe several bits of bad news.

[finkie] 08/11/2017 13:46

Two very good responses, and just to clarify i didn't buy at 160p i think average price was 78p they went to institutions at that level, just picked up £1200 dividend so will sell final holding today at around 73p, good luck to you all.

finkie

[aleman] 08/11/2017 09:55

finkie - I'm also sympathise with your loss but feel it is not the same this time. The Great Recession may have been the worst financial crisis for 50 years, or 80 even, but was concentrated in financial companies rather than the wider economy, generally speaking. It might have been a large GDP fall but was not socially devastating in the same way as the 70s and early 80s recessions. The Bank of England slashed interest rates to protect the financial companies but that also protected thousands of low-productivity, highly indebted companies in the wider economy that should have gone bust in the downswing. Killing off zombies would improve the UK's productivity as labour and capital would be reallocated to more productive areas but it did not happen. That protection of financials that also saved zombies meant BEG did not do as well in the last recession as might normally be expected.

Now, we have an economy that is slowing again and consumers and businesses are starting to go bust. Will they protect the zombies this time? Maybe they will pull another rabiit out of the hat and keep the zombies alive again - but, personally, I very much doubt they will manage it or even need to do it. Banks have stronger balance sheets and need less protection so the Bank of England will be more likely to let a recession run its course. I think many indebted low-productivity companies will go to the wall in a recession that will be more concentrated in small businesses. (It's already clobbering smaller retailers and construction firms.) All those companies that took on cheap immigrant labour rather than investing in the latest, most efficent technology will be in the firing line, I reckon. Will the immigrants go back home or will they add to the burden of the UK unemployment register? I don't know. But I think BEG will be much busier in this recession - unless there is some hidden weakness in the banking sector that forces the B of E into more extreme measures.

[edmundshaw] 08/11/2017 09:25

I am sorry you bought these at 160p. With hindsight that was quite an elevated price. Since then Begbies made a number of acquisitions and should therefore have a higher potential in the cycle. Personally I would value them more for the long term earnings average. I thought 40p was cheap and I think even now 160p is expensive. I still wait to see how much hay they can make when the sun is, hem, going down on a few companies, when more realistic interest rates finally end the limbo existence of many zombie companies.

[finkie] 06/11/2017 20:46

I’m selling out owned them for 10 years, not lost with divi reinvested but poor return over that period, price has gone down from 160p and they never moved during the worst financial crisis for 50 years (apart from going down further) ;0) met some of the management not impressive and they just don’t win the big jobs to propel the earnings significantly forward. It’s people heavy business so thick salaries and running costs, please don’t think this is the winner for a bear market, it wasn’t last time and I doubt it will be again.

[essential] 02/11/2017 08:54

Bought into these. Looking technically strong and with a high stockrank.

[aleman] 01/11/2017 11:18

Some mainstream coverage:

[edmundshaw] 01/11/2017 08:35

Yes; the tide is different (interest rates), but as it falls the same unappetising sight of skinny dippers seems inevitable. It is a classic effect that was deferred rather than avoided in the last crisis.

[aleman] 01/11/2017 07:33

A very gloomy report, suggesting an increasing number of zombie companies that will fail if rates rise:




According to Begbies Traynor's Red Flag Alert research for Q3 2017, which monitors the financial health of UK companies, 448,011 businesses were experiencing 'Significant' levels of financial distress at the end of the quarter, up 27% compared to the same period last year (Q3 2016: 352,552); a worrying statistic that could increase still further should interest rates rise this week.


It looks like a lot of companies that survived the last recession might not survive the next one.

[topvest] 27/10/2017 21:32

Thanks - it will certainly be interesting. Markets are definitely in the "greed" phase rather than the "fear" phase, but not bubble territory generally.

[aleman] 27/10/2017 19:49

There have been a lot of US companies missing forecasts and reducing guidance this summer - more amongst regional and national small and mid caps than international megacaps. Unsecured loan delinquencies and defaults have been rising rapidly, albeit from a low base. Falling car sales, etc. ... I'd find it very hard to believe the US was not slowing, too, so also view their recent slightly stronger GDP figures with scepticism.