Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[qs9] 28/9/2011 07:57

Looks OK to me, now does IMO look oversold. Get rid of tax/red flag for any consideration will also be +ve iMO

[paulypilot] 28/9/2011 07:46

WJCCGHCC - Are you concerned about net debt? I'm not, given that they were well within the facilities at last set of figures, and with facilities having several years left to run, and being profitable, that net debt should gradually decline anyway. Would have been nice, but there's no indication of any problems, so very reassuring I thought. Amazing even, given that the share price has been in freefall. Must be a clumsy Institution or a forced seller instead? I'll have some more today, if price stays low.

[wjccghcc] 28/9/2011 07:37

Shame they don't mention the net debt figure though.

[paulypilot] 27/9/2011 22:03

I don't think it particularly matters if short term business is down, because we all know that many companies and individuals are being kept afloat artificially by near-zero interest rates & late payment schemes by HMRC. That generally just defers the day of reckoning, and means the taxpayer eventually suffers a greater bad debt when they do eventually go bust.

For companies like BEG it means that there is a big pipeline of work backed up which will be rich pickings for them for several years to come. Also, BEG can (and do) flex their staffing levels according to the amount of business coming in. Costs completely scaleable, and by far the largest cost is of course people. As they state in their last results, they've already down-sized the cost base, but have taken a view to retain key skills during this downturn, for the eventual upturn that will inevitably happen.

The debt situation is absolutely fine - amazingly, it's actually UNSECURED bank debt, in the 2nd year of a 4 year term. So no problems there. Insolvency practitioners are thick as thieves with the Banks, since they provide most of their work!

So the statement tomorrow morning will probably say that business is currently slow, but that the longer term prospects are good. It's all factored into the share price anyway.

[pillow] 27/9/2011 00:17

Can`t see this surviving now, such a sad industry that has to finally face the raw reality that all vultures eventually crash and burn, this is no exception.

[topvest] 23/9/2011 20:32

Yes, looks like somebody knows something unpleasant. Still watching as the core business is pretty profitable, but want to see an update first.

[bonio10000] 23/9/2011 12:48

Space - that is the problem. Times are not fruitful in the industry.

Fewer companies and individuals are going to the wall. Whilst the economy is in trouble it is not translating into more insolvencies/bankruptcies.

Whether the elastic will break and these companies/individuals will eventually have to is another matter....

The low interest rates and HMRC schemes are saving a lot of financially stricken people.

[jonnyno1] 23/9/2011 08:21

PP, it has the smell of the inside of a sweaty squash shoe...someone knows and it aint us!

J.

[spaceparallax] 22/9/2011 21:10

This is looking pretty grim - I suppose things might work out okay providing they don't look to raise any funds via placing.

It is however remarkable that a major player in a sector such as this cannot make money in such fruitful times.

[bonio10000] 21/9/2011 15:26

Was talking to the insolvency partner in my firm and things are still tight. If you read Tenon's statement it mentions that the number of appointments is 15% down.

The partner was saying that this is unprecendented and everyone expects a flood of appointments when the day of reckoning arises, the problem is that it is not coming.

That is BEG's real issue - they have been paying top $ for companies and praying that appointments will be on the rise, but they never had.

Also, if Tenon kept market share in a market that contracted 15%, what did BEG do? Hardly implies they are world beaters, which I firmly believe they are not.

[hastings] 21/9/2011 12:51

Good write up paulypilot and would have to agree with your take. It certainly appears that someone knows something that we don't though and i am a great believer in the share price telling the story. However, there doesn't appear to be anything sinister going on here and would have thought they were well worth picking up at current levels.

[paulypilot] 21/9/2011 12:17

Hi,

For anyone interested I've been researching this stock & been buying in the market for the last week. Have posted my thoughts here;



It looks incredibly cheap, on a fwd PER of just over 3, and 10% divi yield.
The share price collapsing indicates someone reckons something's gone wrong, but I don't see any risk with bank facilities, so even if trading is going through a bad patch, that's a buying opp. This type of business is a licence to print money, I used to work for one! (not this firm)

Nice hedge on the economic situation getting worse too.

Regards, PAul.

[value viper] 21/9/2011 08:42

clearly a persistent seller here - who is it I wonder

[qs9] 20/9/2011 20:18

interesting one: get rid of Redflag that was losing £0.7m at interims (has to be +ve even if they close it?), and off goes tax, but risk and insolvency side of things chugging along nicely (based on latest RNS). Debt high, but manageable IMO and with decent profits should be paid down. Next week is update (28th isn't it?) and market IMO with this fall is pointing to disappointment, but is this because of one consistent seller or something more fundamental? Don't quite see why the fall from 40p very recently to 21p today COP without any new news? Let's see.

[937huff26] 20/9/2011 19:33

Trip down to 5P then, that is what the company seems to think they are worth, and with a management who thinks this was a good idea with a falling share price forever, a short looks a good bet AIMHO

[bonio10000] 07/9/2011 10:26

BTW - what was the point of Red Flag? Seems to cost a fortune, generates no real income and now is being sold.

Another amazing management decision to set that up ffs.

[bonio10000] 07/9/2011 10:23

topvest

The issue is I'm not sure it's insolvency arm actually has such an advantage !

It's just one player out of many.

[topvest] 22/8/2011 12:05

Been looking at this and it certainly looks interesting. Think I will await the AGM though as I think they will struggle to get the tax and red flag business away for the price in the books. Also, no mention on how the tax business is doing and the dividend cut wasn't a promising sign. However, once we get the AGM statement, I may be tempted as looks better placed medium term now it is focusing on where it's competitive advantage is.

[937huff26] 22/8/2011 10:13

Cant see it

[pixi] 22/8/2011 00:48

Maybe they need a trip to Specsavers!

[bobsidian] 08/8/2011 18:27

I think the herd has lost its way.

[pixi] 22/7/2011 01:15

The trick is to buy when no one else wants them, before the herd comes thundering in.

[bonio10000] 17/7/2011 14:59

half decent dividend based upon the current price.

didn't buy any 5 years ago - so don't care what the price was then.